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Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method 总被引：9，自引：5，他引：4
This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the
flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing
literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate
the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation
showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and
that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article,
a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences.
An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics,
(2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population.
By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality
amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information
from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these
events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a large-scale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands.
It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.
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| A. C. W. M. VrouwenvelderEmail: |
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The goal of this research is to create a theoretical framework for the identification of cancer risk factor disparities and address the recognition of geographic patterns in these factors. 34 secondary variables covering the entire US at the county level in 2010 were analyzed, both individually and grouped (theoretically and statistically), in relation to the mortality to incidence ratio (MIR) for all cancer sites. An a priori assessment and a principal components analysis (PCA) were used to group variables to test societal constructs. OLS and geographically weighted regressions (GWRs) were used to assess influence of both individual and grouped variables against the MIR. The theoretical grouping of variables showed little change in predictive capability of OLS models. In GWR model, there was marked improvement over the OLS. Maps produced using local R2 showed clear regional patterns of influence between the indicators and the MIR. Both the theoretical model and the justification for a spatial approach to cancer risk factor disparities were shown to be effective in this paper. The link between this suite of indicators and the health outcomes is clear, and supports the idea that a full representation of the SES landscape should be used to both predict health outcomes and to assess policy options for improving these outcomes. With the presence of definitive regional patterns and clear connections between the MIR and societal groupings, the findings from this research suggest a need to shift to a more comprehensive and spatial approach to cancer disparities research. 相似文献
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Excessive heat is a health risk, yet previous studies have observed a general decline in sensitivity to heat despite increasing temperatures. Conclusive evidence is lacking on whether long-term changes of this sensitivity can be attributed to specific adaptation measures, such as air conditioning, or should be linked to societal adaptation, such as improved healthcare systems or socioeconomic well-being. The aim of this study was to assess the variation of the association between heat and daily mortality during summer in Japan since the 1970s and to examine the influence of air conditioning (AC) prevalence, healthcare resources, and socioeconomic developments at the prefecture level on this variation.We analyzed daily total, cardiovascular and respiratory disease mortality and temperature data from 1972 to 2010 for 47 prefectures. We used Poisson generalized linear model to estimate the effect of heat on mortality, random effects model to obtain the mean national effect estimates, and meta-regression to explore the impact of prefecture-level characteristics.Average summer temperature has increased across Japan during the 39-year period. Excess mortality attributable to summer heat has decreased, with a national reduction of 20 (95%CI: 17, 22), 21 (95%CI: 18, 25), and 46 (95%CI: 36, 55) cases of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths (per 1000 deaths). The increase of AC prevalence was not associated with a reduction of excess mortality over time. Prefectures and populations with improved economic status documented a larger decline of excess mortality. Healthcare resources were associated with fewer heat-related deaths in the 1970s, but the associations did not persist in the more recent period (i.e., 2006–2010).Excess mortality due to heat has reduced in Japan, suggesting population adaptation. Yet, heat remains a significant health risk. Socioeconomic developments may play a role in heat adaptation. These findings may have implications for ensuring effective prevention of heat-related health impacts. 相似文献
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Marine species mortality in derelict fishing nets in Puget Sound, WA and the cost/benefits of derelict net removal 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Kirsten V.K. Gilardi Daphne Carlson-Bremer Kyle Antonelis Tom Cowan 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(3):376-382
Derelict fishing gear persists for decades and impacts marine species and underwater habitats. Agencies and organizations are removing significant amounts of derelict gear from marine waters in the United States. Using data collected from repeated survey dives on derelict gillnets in Puget Sound, Washington, we estimated the daily catch rate of a given derelict gillnet, and developed a model to predict expected total mortality caused by a given net based on entanglement data collected upon its removal. We also generated a cost:benefit ratio for derelict gear removal utilizing known true costs compared to known market values of the resources benefiting from derelict gear removal. For one study net, we calculated 4368 crab entangled during the impact lifetime of the net, at a loss of $19,656 of Dungeness crab to the commercial fishery, compared to $1358 in costs to remove a given gillnet, yielding a cost:benefit ratio of 1:14.5. 相似文献
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Lucinda Coates 《The Australian geographer》1999,30(3):391-408
Information on fatalities from flooding in Australia has been compiled from newspapers, historical accounts, and government and scientific reports. Records covering 1788 to 1996 indicate that at least 2213 persons have been killed in floods in Australia. The overall decadal death rate has decreased from 23.98 per 100 000 population in the 1800s to 0.04 per 100 000 in the 1990s. The greatest number of fatalities has occurred in New South Wales but, taking population into account, Queensland has been the most vulnerable state historically as, more recently, has been the Northern Territory. Most fatalities have occurred during February, and amongst males (80.6 per cent). The overall male:female death and death-rate ratios are both 4:1. Whereas the male:female death-rate ratio has fluctuated over time from 10:1 to 1:1, it does not approach equality. Most fatalities (38.5 per cent) have occurred through attempts to cross creeks, bridges or roads in times of flood. Another 31.5 per cent of victims were in houses-the majority awaiting rescue, or simply unaware of the flood. Of the total known deaths, work-related fatalities have accounted for 12.4 per cent, and recreational pursuits for 5.7 per cent. 相似文献
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Extreme heat events frequently have adverse effects on population health. Within every population certain groups and individuals are at a greater risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality than others. While certain physiological characteristics (advanced age, chronic conditions, etc.) are known to increase the risk of illness and/or death during periods of extreme heat, the role of social and community level factors in aggravating or mitigating this risk is poorly understood. This paper reviews the literature on the social and community level factors that affect heat-related morbidity and mortality in order to identify shortfalls in current heat health response plans so that new approaches can be recommended. While social isolation, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and neighborhood characteristics have all been identified as potential factors affecting the risk of heat-related illness and mortality, these are rarely, if ever, identified as heat health research priorities and are thus often neglected in heat emergency planning. Current research and programming practices are often prioritized from the top down where decisions are made at the federal level and research priorities are determined by national research bodies. This, unfortunately, may not allow enough flexibility to meet the needs of physically, socially and culturally diverse communities. A more socio-ecological approach to heat health research and planning would better allow for the identification of community level vulnerabilities and available resources and would encourage communities to work with regional or national partners to adapt response plans accordingly. The development of future plans should involve more partnerships at the community level so that social and community level factors that are currently overlooked may be included in heat health response strategies. 相似文献
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Understanding threats to endangered species is one of the most critical components of implementing a successful recovery plan. For the endangered star cactus Astrophytum asterias, both mammalian and insect herbivory have been documented as a major threat to populations in Mexico. Herein, we focus on populations of A. asterias in Texas, examining how mortality threats differ from populations found in Mexico as well as among sites within Texas. Our study supports insect and mammalian herbivory as a major threat to A. asterias in Texas, with reductions in population sizes ranging between 16 and 54%. However, our study highlights that both regional and local differences can influence rates of mortality even in a range-restricted species such as A. asterias and highlights the need to assess threats at both of these levels for effective development and implementation of endangered species recovery plans. 相似文献
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A vital component of marine policy is the conservation and management of diverse marine resources. In the southeastern US, commercial fishermen target black sea bass (Centropristis striata) with pots from North Carolina to Cape Canaveral, Florida. During the fall through spring fishing season, western North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) distribution overlaps the black sea bass commercial pot fishery. Fishermen interviews revealed that the number of pots set ranged from 3 to 240 and the number of pots set per trawl ranged from 1 to 18. Generally, the amount of gear increased from south to north. 相似文献