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Assessment of the environmental fate and behavior of constituents that have the potential to leach from waste-disposal pits that are associated with petroleum exploration and production activities is a problem of interest to industry and regulatory agencies. A stochastic modeling approach for the migration of constituents in soil and groundwater was developed to assess the impact on groundwater at receptors that are downgradient from a waste pit. The model evaluates uncertainties in constituent concentrations in groundwater due to uncertainties in waste-composition and hydrogeologic properties of waste sites, and it determines the probability distributions of constituent concentration at receptor points by using Monte Carlo (MC), First-Order (FO), and Point-Estimate (PE) methods. Application of the FO and PE methods to assess probability distributions requires an assumption of the form of the probability density function for concentration at a receptor point. A log-normal distribution is employed here. A comparison of the three uncertainty-analysis methods is performed to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of the FO and PE methods relative to the MC method. Results suggest that for non-reactive and conservative constituents the level of accuracy provided by FO method is similar to that of the MC method. The computational effort for the FO method is about 1 percent of that for the MC method. For nonconservative constituents, the FO method compared less favorably with the MC results. Thus, the use of the MC method is warranted, for nonconservative constituents or for cases where a higher degree of precision in the probability distribution is needed. RÉSUMÉ: L'industrie et les organismes de contrôle s'intéressent particulièrement au problème de la prédiction du devenir et du comportement environnemental de composés susceptibles de lixivier des pollutants à partir de puits de stockage de déchets associés à des zones d'exploration et de production pétrolières. Une modélisation stochastique de la migration de composées dans le sol et les eaux souterraines est proposée en vue de prédire l'impact sur les eaux souterraines en des points de prélèvement situés en aval-gradient d'un puits de stockage. Le modèle fournit une estimation des incertitudes sur les teneurs des composés dans les eaux souterraines en fonction de la composition des déchets et des propriétés hydrogéologiques des sites de stockage; il détermine les distributions de probabilité de la concentration des composés à des points de prélèvement au moyen des méthodes de Monte-Carlo (MC), du Premier Ordre (PO) et de l'Estimation Ponctuelle (EP). Le recours aux méthodes PO et EP pour prédire les distributions de probabilité impose une hypothèse sur la forme de la fonction de densité de probabilité pour la concentration en un point de prélèvement. Une distrubution log-normale est utilisée ici. Une comparaison des trois méthodes d'analyse de l'incertude a été réalisée afin d'estimer l'efficacité et la précision des méthodes PO et EP par rapport à la méthode MC. Les résultats indiquent que, pour des composés conservatifs, le degré de précision atteint par la méthode PO est comparable à celle de la méthode MC. La puissance de calcul requise par la méthode PO est 1% environ de celle nécessaire pour la méthode MC. Pour des composés non conservatifs, la comparaison avec la méthode MC est moins favorable à la méthode PO. Par conséquent, la méthode MC est préférable pour les composés non conservatifs ou dans les cas où un meilleur degré de précision de la distribution de probabilité est nécessaire. RESUMEN: La evaluación del comportamiento de constituyentes lixiviables desde vertidos de residuos asociados a actividades de exploración y producción petrolífera, así como su posible impacto ambiental, es un problema de interés para la industria y las agencias reguladoras. Se ha desarrollado una modelación estocástica para estudiar la migración de los constituyentes en el suelo y el agua subterránea, con el objetivo de evaluar su impacto en receptores situados aguas abajo de un vertido. El modelo evalúa las incertidumbres en las concentraciones de los constituyentes debidas a las incertidumbre en la composición de los residuos y de las propiedades hidrogeológicas de la zona de vertido y determina las distribuciones de probabilidad de dichas concentraciones en puntos de recepción mediante los métodos de Monte Carlo (MC), Primer-Orden (FO) y Estimación Puntual (PE). La aplicación de los métodos FO y PE para evaluar las distribuciones de probabilidad reqiere suponer conocida la forma de la función de densidad de probabilidad para la concentración en el punto receptor. En este caso, se emplea una distribución log-normal. Se lleva a cabo una comparación entre los tres métodos de análisis de errores para evaluar la eficiencia y exactitud de los métodos FO y PE respecto al MC. Los resultados sugieren que para constituyentes conservativos no-reactivos, el nivel de exactitud suministrado por el método FO es comparable con el del MC. El esfuerzo computacional para el método FO, en cambio, es alrededor del 1% del método MC. Para constituyentes no conservativos, es método FO no compara tan favorablemente frente a los resultados del MC. Por tanto, el uso del método MC está obligado para constituyentes no conservativos y para casos en los que se requiere un alto nivel de precisión en la distribución de probabilidad.  相似文献   
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All of the major deep-water sedimentary provinces of the Gulf of Mexico were sampled with 48 piston cores, representative of the late Quaternary. The amount (per cent) and δ5C13 of the organic carbon in the sediment was measured at intervals within each core.Graphs of δC13 versus depth for each core give an indication of the sedimentological history of the Gulf. They show the extent of terrestrial influence on the Gulf during the late Pleistocene.Changes in δC13 of up to 6.0%.(from ~ ?19%.to ?25%. vs NBS-20) were measured across the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary in cores from the abyssal plain. These changes are consistent with a model wherein varying amounts of land-derived organic carbon were transported to the Gulf basin during glacial periods.By comparing graphs for cores from different areas, it was concluded that the major parameter affecting the δC13 values of organic carbon from marine sediments is the relative amount of terrestrial material present in the sediment. The maximum possible effect of the Pleistocene-Holocene temperature change in the Gulf was determined to be ~1.0%, if such an effect occurs at all.  相似文献   
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To investigate the relationship between solar activity and cosmic ray modulation, time series of the nucleonic flux and of solar plages, sunspots, centimeter radio noise, and the brightness of the white light corona at 1.1 and 1.5 solar radii from the center of Sun are cross-correlated. Data pertain to the years 1964–1967 during the ascending phase of the current solar cycle. The amplitudes and phases of correlation functions for filtered and unfiltered indices are discussed. The existence of a superior solar index for relating solar activity to long-term modulation is not yet demonstrated conclusively, and the time lag of modulation is too poorly determined to permit its use in estimating the radius of the modulation region.Presently at the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   
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Turbulent diffusion of magnetic field plays an essential role in the generation of magnetic field in most astrophysical bodies. This paper reviews what can be proved, and what can be believed, about the turbulent diffusion of magnetic field. Observations indicate the dissipation of magnetic field at rates that can be understood only in terms of turbulent diffusion. Theory shows that a largescale weak magnetic field diffuses in a turbulent flow in the same way that smoke is mixed throughout the fluid by the turbulence. The small-scale fields (produced from the large-scale field by the turbulence) are limited in their growth by reconnection of field lines at neutral points, so that the turbulent mixing of field and fluid is not halted by them.Altogether, it appears that the mixing of field and fluid in the observed turbulent motions in the Sun and in the Galaxy is unavoidable. Turbulent diffusion causes decay of the general solar fields in a decade or so, and of the galactic field in 108–109 yr. We conclude that continual dynamo action is implied by the observed existence of the fields.This work was supported in part by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant NGL 14-001-001.  相似文献   
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The current situation for VHF/UHF marine communications in Europe is outlined, and the expectations for increased automation of that service axe presented within the framework of the historical and regional factors which have shaped the current system. The degree of automation now employed, types and number of channels available, and services provided, are described for the different regions of Europe, and in specific instances, compared to U.S. practices. Estimates are given for the additional radio spectrum required to support automated service through the turn of the century. The radio bands which offer the best prospects for support of this growth are discussed in terms of their relative availability and advantages for the marine user.  相似文献   
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