上海梅汛期候降水异常的低频信号及延伸期预报     

梁萍  杨子凡  谢潇  钱琦雯  常越 《气象科技》2020,48(5):685-694

提高汛期降水过程的延伸期预报能力是目前天气预报和气候预测发展的重要方向。本文以上海梅汛期降水为例,利用非传统滤波方法提取多变量季节内分量,分析了梅汛期季节内候降水异常及其相联系的延伸期关键低频信号,进一步综合多变量低频信号建立了梅汛期候降水异常延伸期预报方法,并开展了多年的回报和试报检验。结果表明:①梅汛期候降水异常季节内分量具有显著的40～60d低频振荡周期,与降水异常实况具有显著的正相关和较高的符号一致率;②梅汛期季节内候降水异常与超前10～35d的热带及中高纬低频信号有关,主要包括:热带MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation)自阿拉伯海的向东传播、西太平洋副热带高压季节内活动的西北向传播、PNA(Pacific-North American)遥相关型的季节内位相转换以及东北亚冷空气的持续性异常影响;③综合上述多变量低频信号建立了延伸期候降水异常预报模型,对提前10～35d的延伸期候降水异常的季节内分量具有预报技巧,也能较好地预报实际的候降水异常趋势。  相似文献   

不同水温对红螫螫虾胚胎发育的影响   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

赵云龙  孟凡丽  陈立侨  顾志敏  徐谷星  刘启文 《湖泊科学》2000,12(1):59-62

本文研讨了各种人控恒温和自然水温对红螯螯虾胚胎发育周期,各发育阶段以及胚胎发育成活率等的影响。对水温２４－３０℃,红螯螯虾的胚胎均能正常发育;最适发育水为２８～３０℃,２２℃以下或３２℃以上,胚胎不能正常发育。自然水温温差大,对胚胎发育有害,水温越高,胚胎发育越快,发育周期越短,成活率越低。  相似文献   

碳载氧化锰表面氧还原反应路径研究(英文)     

姜鲁华  唐琪雯  刘静  孙公权 《甘肃地质》1997,(1):175-180

氧还原反应(ORR)是一个复杂的过程,尤其在碱性电解液中,炭载型催化剂表面的ORR路径尤为复杂,因为碳本身可以催化ORR以二电子转移过程发生,产生过氧化氢,继而过氧化氢或者发生化学分解生成氧气(HODR),或者发生电化学还原生成OH(HORR).本文详细研究了ORR在常用氧化锰催化剂表面的反应路径.通过比较HODR和HORR的转换频率发现,尽管利用旋转环盘电极方法得到的表观电子转移数接近4,真实的ORR主要是2电子过程,反应生成的过氧化氢继而大部分发生化学分解生成氧气.该结果有助于理解碱性电解质中炭载型过渡金属氧化物电催化剂对ORR的催化行为.  相似文献   

POSSIBILITY TO USE SCHÖRDINGER EQUATION TO DESCRIBE LARGE-SCALE PROBABILITY WAVES AND ITS APPLICATION IN SEASONAL PREDICTION     

Zhang Shaoqing  Li Maicun  Zhu Qiwen 《气象学报》1989,3(1):25-33

Under the influence of a one-dimensional stationary outfield with the equilibrium between kinetic and potential energy produced by it,a modified Schördinger equation in the form i(∂ψ/∂t)t=a ∂²ψ/∂x²-ib∂,where b=b_o∂T/∂x,is used to describe the behavior of the probability wave on the six-month departure charts at the 500 hPa level.It is found that C=2πa/L-b_o∂T/ax and when L→∞,then C=-b_o∂T/∂x,where C is wave velocity,a and b are constants,and L is wavelength.The motion direction of probability waves is against the outfield temperature gradient,and their velocity is related to the absolute value of temperature gradient.The motion of waves shrinks in heat sinks and expands in heat sources,which have been verified in practice.Finally the six-month departure probability wave and the modified Schördinger equation are used in the MOS predictions of temperature and rainfall in spring-summer 1981-1985 in Jilin Province and the accuracy for trend predictions is equal to 80%.  相似文献   

微生物胶结橡胶土性能试验研究     

尤浩  王伟岩  陶元洪  李沛  周启文 《华南地震》2021,41(3):26-32

橡胶土都是一种常用的减震材料,但是强度较低.采用MICP技术胶结掺入3％以内的橡胶粉末砂土,试验研究了微生物胶结后橡胶砂土单轴抗压强度、循环加卸载作用特性及其微观结构.研究表明微生物胶结后横波波速和试样密度随橡胶含量增加而增加,其单轴抗压强度变化不大,受橡胶含量影响较小.随加卸载循环次数增加,微生物胶结橡胶粉末砂土阻尼比和滞回环面积逐渐减小,但是其刚度变化较小.相同加卸载循环次数条件下,微生物胶结橡胶粉末砂土阻尼比、滞回曲线面积及其刚度随橡胶粉末含量增加而增加.在微生物胶结橡胶粉末砂土中砂土胶结颗粒间,橡胶粉末与碳酸钙晶体形成了具有一定微观强度的蜂窝孔状结构,有利于缓冲砂颗粒在外界动荷载作用的位置变动,吸收砂颗粒传递过来的能量,从而起到减震作用.  相似文献   

The Extreme Mei-yu Season in 2020: Role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Cooperative Influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans※     

Ping LIANG  Zeng-Zhen HU  Yihui DING  Qiwen QIAN 《大气科学进展》2021,38(12):2040-2054

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in eastern China during summer 2020 suffered the strongest mei-yu since 1961. In this work, we comprehensively analyzed the mechanism of the extreme mei-yu season in 2020, with focuses on the combined effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the cooperative influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans in 2020 and from a historical perspective. The prediction and predictability of the extreme mei-yu are further investigated by assessing the performances of the climate model operational predictions and simulations. 　 It is noted that persistent MJO phases 1?2 during June?July 2020 played a crucial role for the extreme mei-yu by strengthening the western Pacific subtropical high. Both the development of La Ni?a conditions and sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical Indian Ocean exerted important influences on the long-lived MJO phases 1?2 by slowing down the eastward propagation of the MJO and activating convection related to the MJO over the tropical Indian Ocean. The spatial distribution of the 2020 mei-yu can be qualitatively captured in model real-time forecasts with a one-month lead. This can be attributed to the contributions of both the tropical Indian Ocean warming and La Ni?a development. Nevertheless, the mei-yu rainfall amounts are seriously underestimated. Model simulations forced with observed SST suggest that internal processes of the atmosphere play a more important role than boundary forcing (e.g., SST) in the variability of mei-yu anomaly, implying a challenge in quantitatively predicting an extreme mei-yu season, like the one in 2020.  相似文献   

川滇西部地区钾质煌斑岩特征及其成因     

沈发硅  袁蔺平等 《矿物岩石》1990,10(1):70-78,T004

川滇西部地区钾质煌斑岩带产物扬子板块西缘与三江褶皱带之间的过渡地带，侵位于老第三系地层。岩石化学特点具有中等含量钾、钛和钠、铝弱饱和，属岛弧环境的钙碱性煌斑岩与板内环境的钾镁煌斑岩（超钾）之间的过渡类型。微量元素Sr相对于Rb,Ba,K等元素具有明显的负异常，是地幔交代作用的产物。区域上与其伴生的壳源型花岗岩侵位在前，分布于西侧；碱性岩层中；钾质煌斑岩侵位在后，分布于东侧，属反序侵位序列，为喜山期陆壳碰撞、褶皱造山运动所触发的被动地幔作用产物。  相似文献   

VARIATIONS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND EL NINO EVENTS          下载免费PDF全文

Wang Shaowu  Ma Liang  Chen Zhenhu  Zhang Qiwen 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1987,1(1):60-70

The variations of precipitation in the western and central equatorial Pacific were investigated by using the three-month (October to December) data set for the period from 1899 to 1982.The EOF analysis of precipitation shows great contrary between the areas of 20°N-10°S and north or south to it.The coefficients of first eigenvector of precipitation are closely correlated with the sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (correlation coefficient 0.75).The composite sea level pressure anomaly charts show that the equatorial low moves to the east near the dateline,the subtropical high weakens in the southern Pacific and the high pressure predominates over Australia,when plentiful precipitations are observed in the central Pacific.It is noted that the 1982-1983 E1 Nino event is not unusual,in the sense of the precipitation anomalies and the atmospheric circulation anomalies,but its intensity might be the strongest one in the last several decades.  相似文献   

几率波在长期季度预报中的应用     

章少卿  李麦村  朱其文 《气象学报》1987,45(1):93-103

本文首先讨论了造成长期异常天气的原因:主要是由于环流的持续稳定。指出月、季距平图上所反映的波动实质上是几率波动,它反映了下垫面冷热源(包括:雪盖、海冰、海温等)的异常分布。从而得出持续稳定的环流造成了下垫面冷热源的异常,而下垫面冷热源的异常分布作为一个持久性的扰动源对大气又起反馈作用,又造成了在某些特定地区环流的持续稳定,这样又形成了后期冷热源异常的再分布。 六个月距平几率波主要是反映下垫面冷热源的异常分布。它的变化是十分缓慢的。在30°N以南几乎呈静止状态,而30°N以北的几率波在欧亚大陆多数情况下是缓慢东进的。它的运动方向与下垫面的温度梯度相反。 最后利用半年时间尺度的距平几率波的特性,提出一种利用前一年秋到冬季的距平几率波预报次年春到夏季的降水、气温统计模型。经河北、内蒙、辽宁、吉林等省、区某些气象台1982—1985年的实地试用,反映较好,一致认为预报准确率比较稳定。  相似文献   

生态补偿机制中若干关键科学问题——以甘南藏族自治州草地生态系统为例   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

戴其文  赵雪雁 《地理学报》2010,65(4):494-506

以甘南州草地生态系统水源涵养服务为例,构建以机会成本、交易成本和实施成本为参数的参与成本模型确定生态补偿标准。基于生态补偿资金效率的考虑,构建以土地所有者提供的生态系统服务、土地所有者的参与成本和生态系统服务受损风险为参数的空间选择模型,以乡镇为研究单元,对生态补偿区域进行选择,采用聚类分析将全州划为5大等级补偿区:优先补偿区、次级优先补偿区、次级补偿区、临界补偿区和潜在补偿区或可能补偿区,并对各类补偿区的特征进行了分析。构建生态补偿额基尼系数与生态补偿资金效率评价模型,分别评价了补偿额在受偿群体和补偿区域中分配的公平性、合理性与不同等级补偿区的补偿效率。结果表明:①以草地生态系统服务功能的价值(4776.4元/hm²·a)和机会成本(621.3元/m²·a)作为补偿标准的上下限,结合参与成本确定甘南州草地生态系统补偿标准为1999.8元/hm²·a;②草地生态系统的补偿优先度与生态重要性、生态脆弱性呈现出吻合趋同的状态,即草地生态系统优先补偿区既是高效补偿区,又是重要生态区和生态脆弱区;③受偿者(草地生态系统水源涵养服务供给者)得到的补偿额有明显不均衡状态,而在补偿区域(草地生态系统)上的分配却处于绝对平均范围内;④草地生态系统补偿区的优先等级次序与补偿效率吻合,即草地生态系统的优先补偿区的补偿效率最高,每元获取的草地生态系统水源涵养服务为38.18,是临界补偿区的14.68倍;次级优先补偿区的效率仅次于优先补偿区,每元补偿的生态系统服务为21.02。  相似文献