基于集合卡尔曼滤波动态优化CA模型参数的方法     

张亦汉  乔纪纲  艾彬 《测绘学报》2013,42(1):123-130

传统元胞自动机(CA)模型的转换规则不随模拟过程的时间和空间而变化,难以模拟和表达非线性地理过程.提出基于集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)动态优化CA模型参数的方法,以提高模型对复杂地理过程模拟的适应能力.通过引入集合卡尔曼滤波到CA模型中,将模型参数与模型状态整合成一个联合状态矩阵(joint state matrix).再把该矩阵与观测数据输入到EnKF更新方程中,计算出新的参数值,并自动更新到模型中,从而实现动态调整模型运行轨迹,以更好地适应城市发展的过程模拟.将此方法应用于东莞市的城市模拟试验中,优化后的CA模型能在单参数和多参数优化中正确地调整模型参数,使其迅速地收敛于真值并趋于平缓,也能降低模型误差并获得更好的模拟结果.  相似文献   

Temporal and spatial changes of soil moisture and its response to temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau     

Wenkui Bai  Yihan Tang  Yanhu He  Yanhui Zheng 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(11):1370-1384

ABSTRACT

The temporal and spatial characteristics of soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) were analysed to explore the relative contributions of temperature and precipitation to soil moisture change. Non-significant changes in soil moisture were observed for the TP over the period 1950–2010, while a seasonal cycle was evident, with higher values in summer and smaller values in winter. The soil moisture showed obvious spatial heterogeneity, with higher values in the south than in the north of the TP. The soil moisture fluctuated with time, jointly influenced by precipitation and temperature changes, with precipitation the dominant factor, while temperature regulated the relationship between soil moisture and precipitation. The relative contribution of precipitation to soil moisture changes was over 80%, except for winter in which temperature was the dominant factor, with a relative contribution of more than 70%. Because of the sharp increase in temperature in winter, the uneven spatial distribution of soil moisture over the TP might harm the fragile ecological environment.  相似文献   

小麦自然水分亏缺干旱评估模型的GIS建模   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

朱一晗  薛丰昌  唐步兴  黄敏敏 《测绘通报》2017,(11):101

小麦是我国重要的粮食作物之一,小麦干旱灾害严重影响我国粮食安全,因此对小麦干旱的评估显得尤为重要。自然水分亏缺率模型是评估小麦干旱状况的主要模型之一,该模型涉及数据类型多,模型计算复杂,影响模型的实际应用。本文利用GIS建模工具ModelBuilder建立自然水分亏缺率模型的GIS逻辑计算模型。研究结果表明：基于GIS的小麦自然水分亏缺干旱评估模型,将复杂的数学模型转变为方便快捷的GIS栅格计算,实现了模型计算过程的自动化、一体化、空间可视化,同时模型逻辑关系清晰,便于数据修改维护。  相似文献   

流体包裹体与金矿床的成矿及勘探评价   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

范宏瑞  谢奕汉  王英兰 《地质与资源》1997,6(3):204-213

金矿床矿石和脉石矿物中的流体包裹体是封存在这些矿物中的热液样品,它可以提供含金成矿流体的温度、盐度、压力、密度、成分以及热液来源和成矿时代等信息.本文对中深脉状、浅成低温热液型、卡林型、斑岩型和矽卡岩型金矿床中的流体包裹体特征作了探讨,提出流体包裹体岩相学、均一温度、爆裂温度及气相成分等是金矿床勘探评价直观而有效的方法.  相似文献   

围垦对舟山群岛海域潮流结构及潮能分布影响研究     

任一晗  叶涛焱  杨铭哲  李莉  贺治国  夏乐章  管卫兵 《海洋工程》2021,39(2):80-89

舟山群岛海域潮能丰富,近年来大面积的围垦工程影响了邻近海域的潮流结构与潮能分布特征。基于FVCOM(finite volume coastal ocean model)三维水动力数值模型,选取1984年、2010年、2019年三个代表年份,探讨围垦工程影响下舟山群岛海域潮流结构与潮能分布的时空变化状况。结果显示:1984年至2010年间围垦面积相对不大,且较为分散,主要改变外海进入杭州湾各通道的潮能分配,对能量耗散的影响较小。2010年至2019年间的围垦工程缩窄了潮汐通道,流速增大使得螺头水道及邻近水道的潮能增加,近底流速增大与较强湍流涡旋的产生,使得围垦工程周边海域能量耗散更为集中。  相似文献   

溶蚀丘陵型岩溶流域概念性水文模型及其应用          下载免费PDF全文

陈晓宏  颜依寒  李诚  危润初 《水科学进展》2020,31(1):1-9

为弥补传统概念性水文模型在岩溶水文模拟上的缺陷,基于三水源新安江模型,采用多个线性水库表达岩溶地下系统的异质性,同时引入流域虚拟面积系数修正岩溶流域的非闭合性。将改进的概念性水文模型应用于湘中南典型溶蚀丘陵型岩溶流域,并在此基础上探讨岩溶流域非闭合性的动态变化。研究结果表明:①改进模型的日径流模拟精度提高11.21%,水量平衡误差及低水误差分别降低23.29%、27.64%;②岩溶地下汇流系统的多向性导致流域非闭合状态具有双重性;③地下汇流面积与时段降雨量呈正相关,然而受地下饱和程度的制约,地下汇流面积的变化率随时段降雨量的增大而减小;④由于岩溶地貌的蓄水滞水作用,地下流域受外侧补给的过程存在滞后性。模型的改进与拓展研究可为岩溶水文模拟提供新思路。  相似文献   

南海西北次海扩张时代和洋壳性质:沉积地层及重磁依据   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

魏喜  祝永军  胡礼国  陈亦寒  姜建群  李振远 《地质学报》2012,86(3):383-388

利用沉积地层被动超覆和基底重磁异常特征对南海西北次海形成时代和洋壳性质进行了探讨。推断南海西北次海初始扩张时间为早渐新世,结束扩张时间为晚渐新世早期。地层变形、被动超覆特征、洋壳基底形态及对称性特点反映出两期洋壳扩张事件。第一期发生在早渐新世。由于洋壳扩张,上始新统被拉断,在洋壳边界处上始新统突然终止现象明显。受洋壳横向扩张推挤和纵向沉降作用影响,上始新统明显变形,并向扩张中心倾覆。第二期洋壳扩张发生在晚渐新世早期。该期洋壳扩张持续时间短,扩张幅度小,下渐新统被拉开的距离有限。由于南海西北次海形成期间不同部位地壳伸展减薄程度不同,南海西北次海洋壳基底呈北东部较宽,向南西方向变窄,并逐渐尖灭的不规则三角形。根据盆地边缘上始新统向海盆中心方向的断点/线和重磁异常资料,推测西北次海南西侧洋壳边界位于海盆基底坡角处附近,洋壳较窄;而北东侧洋壳边界位于海底坡角处附近,洋壳相对较宽。另外,重磁异常表明,在洋壳基底中有陆壳残留块体存在。上述这些现象说明南海西北次海在洋壳萌芽阶段就先天夭折,停止发育。  相似文献   

Have China’s drylands become wetting in the past 50 years?     

ZHANG Yu  ZHANG Yangjian  CHENG Liang  CONG Nan  ZHENG Zhoutao  HUANG Ke  ZHANG Jianshuang  ZHU Yixuan  GAO Jie  SUN Yihan 《地理学报(英文版)》2023,33(1):99-120

Recently, whether drylands of Northwest China (NW) have become wetting has been attracting surging attentions. By comparing the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices (SPEI) derived from two different potential evapotranspiration estimates, i.e., the Thornthwaite algorithm (SPEI_th) and the Penman-Monteith equation (SPEI_pm), we try to resolve the controversy. The analysis indicated that air temperature has been warming significantly at a rate of 0.4°C decade^?1 in the last five decades and the more arid areas are more prone to becoming warmer. Annual precipitation of the entire study area increased insignificantly by 3.6 mm decade^?1 from 1970 to 2019 but NW presented significantly increasing trends. Further, the SPEI_th and SPEI_pm demonstrated similar wetting-drying-wetting trends (three phases) in China’s drylands during 1970-2019. The common periodical signals in the middle phase were identified both by SPEI_th and SPEI_pm wavelet analysis. Analysis with different temporal intervals can lead to divergent or even opposite results. The attribution analysis revealed that precipitation is the main climatic factor driving the drought trend transition. This study hints that the wetting trend’s direction and magnitude hinge on the targeted temporal periods and regions.  相似文献   

Climatic Changes Dominant Interannual Trend in Net Primary Productivity of Alpine Vulnerable Ecosystems     

YANG Yihan  WANG Junbang  LIU Peng  LU Guangxin  LI Yingnian 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(4):379-388

The Three-River Headwaters (TRH), which is the source area of Yangtze River, Yellow River and Lancang River, is vulnerable and sensitive, and its alpine ecosystem is considered an important barrier for China’s ecological security. Understanding the impact of climate changes is essential for determining suitable measures for ecological environmental protection and restoration against the background of global climatic changes. However, different explanations of the interannual trends in complex alpine ecosystems have been proposed due to limited availability of reliable data and the uncertainty of the model itself. In this study, the remote sensing-process coupled model (GLOPEM-CEVSA) was used to estimate the net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation in the TRH region from 2000 to 2012. The estimated NPP significantly and linearly correlated with the above-ground biomass sampled in the field (the multiple correlative coefficient R² = 0.45, significant level P < 0.01) and showed better performance than the MODIS productivity product, i.e. MOD17A3, (R² = 0.21). The climate of TRH became warmer and wetter during 1990-2012, and the years 2000 to 2012 were warmer and wetter than the years1990-2000. Responding to the warmer and wetter climate, the NPP had an increasing trend of 13.7 g m^-2 (10 yr)^-1 with a statistical confidence of 86% (P = 0.14). Among the three basins, the NPP of the Yellow River basin increased at the fastest rate of 17.44 g m^-2 (10 yr)^-1 (P = 0.158), followed by the Yangtze River basin, and the Lancang River, which was the slowest with a rate of 12.2 g m^-2 (10 yr)^-1 and a statistical confidence level of only 67%. A multivariate linear regression with temperature and precipitation as the independent variables and NPP as the dependent variable at the pixel level was used to analyze the impacts of climatic changes on the trend of NPP. Both temperature and precipitation can explain the interannual variability of 83% in grassland NPP in the whole region, and can explain high, medium and low coverage of 78%, 84% and 83%, respectively, for grassland in the whole region. The results indicate that climate changes play a dominant role in the interannual trend of vegetation productivity in the alpine ecosystems on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This has important implications for the formulation of ecological protection and restoration policies for vulnerable ecosystems against the background of global climate changes.  相似文献   

豫西熊耳山地区变质流体的性质与演化   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

范宏瑞  谢奕汉 《矿物学报》1992,12(4):299-308,T001

流体包裹体研究发现,本区区域变质高峰期后热液以高盐度为特征,均一温度为205～360℃,盐度16～34wt％eq.NaCl。热液体系属Na-K-Cl-S-C型。变质压力增大到一定程度,变质流体的组成有重大改变,从以含水溶液为主的流体转到以CO_2为主的流体。不同地区的变质岩、混合岩中流体包裹体类型、均一温度、盐度都具有极大的相似性,为同一变质流体演化的产物,说明本区在变质-混合岩化构造热事件中具很大的均匀性。因此,变质作用过程中不可能有大规模的热流体循环,也不会造成大范围的矿质运移和沉淀成矿。本区金矿不是变质同生金矿,而是变质后生金矿。文中还对退变质过程中的p-T轨迹作了讨论。  相似文献