2015年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

赖芬芬 《气象》2015,41(8):1036-1041

对2015年3—5月T639、ECMWF（文中简称EC）及日本数值模式中期预报产品进行了检验和对比。结果表明：三个模式对亚洲中高纬地区大尺度环流和850 hPa温度的演变和调整均具有较好的预报性能,EC模式对西风指数、850 hPa温度转折过程和变化幅度的预报略优于其他两个模式。对2015年3月31日至4月1日北方地区强沙尘暴天气过程的主要影响天气系统,三个模式预报能力相当,120 h时效都较好地预报出了地面冷高压,但强度和范围与实况有一定偏差。  相似文献   

ECMWF和NCEP再分析资料在青藏高原高度场变化中的对比分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

荀学义  胡泽勇  孙俊  崔桂凤  徐丽娇  谷良雷 《冰川冻土》2011,33(1):80-87

利用ECMWF和NCEP/NCAR北半球逐月平均的600 hPa、500 hPa和200 hPa高度场再分析资料,对高原地区高度场流型及量值进行对比研究.结果表明:二者在不同的再分析资料中具有一定的相似性,但仍存在着明显的区别.高度场流型的区别由低层向高层依次减小,600hPa高度场除冬季的流型基本一致外,其余三季的流...  相似文献   

Comparison of the Global Energy Cycle between Chinese Reanalysis Interim and ECMWF Reanalysis     

Bin ZHAO  Bo ZHANG  Chunxiang SHI  Jingwei LIU  Lipeng JIANG 《Journal of Meteorological Research》2019,(3):563-575

The global energy cycle is a diagnostic metric widely used to gauge the quality of datasets. In this paper, the "Mixed Space-Time Domain" method for diagnosis of energy cycle is evaluated by using newly developed datasets-the Chinese Reanalysis Interim (CRAI) and ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), over a 7-yr period (2010-16) on seasonal and monthly timescales. The results show that the energy components calculated from the two reanalysis datasets are highly consistent;however, some components in the global energy integral from CRAI are slightly larger than those from ERA5. The main discrepancy in the energy components stems from the conversion of baroclinic process, whereas the dominant difference originates from the conversion from stationary eddy available potential energy to stationary eddy kinetic energy (CES), which is caused by systematic differences in the temperature and vertical velocity in low-mid latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and near the Antarctic, where there exist complex terrains. Furthermore, the monthly analysis reveals that the general discrepancy in the temporal variation between the two datasets also lie mainly in the CES as well as corresponding generation and dissipation rates.  相似文献   

ECMWF细网格模式降水产品在北疆暴雪中的应用检验     

张俊兰  李圆圆  张超 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2013,7(4):7-13

2012年4月,ECMWF细网格（0.25o×0.25o）数值预报产品投入新疆天气预报业务化应用。本文通过对ECMWF细网格模式LSP大尺度降水预报产品在2012年前冬3场暴雪天气中的预报效果分析检验得出：LSP预报的暴雪量值总体偏小,提前1 d较提前2 d的预报效果有所改善,较早时次的预报结果也有一定的应用价值;暴雪预报的开始时间偏早3h左右,结束时间相对准确;LSP累计降水量级检验提前2 d和分级降水检验提前12 h的暴雪预报准确率较高,空报率较低。在观测站点相对密集的成片暴雪天气中,LSP预报的暴雪落区和量级较为准确,零散暴雪点的预报效果相对较差。检验分析结果可为ECMWF细网格降水预报产品的释用提供一定的参考,为业务人员制作北疆暴雪天气的定点、定时、定量预报提供一定依据。  相似文献   

Surface heat fluxes and thermohaline variability in the Ross Sea and in Terra Nova Bay polynya     

Giannetta Fusco  Giorgio Budillon  Giancarlo Spezie 《Continental Shelf Research》2009,29(15):1887-1895

The Ross Sea is an important area for the ventilation of the deep layers of the Southern Ocean (e.g. [Jacobs, S.S., Fairbanks, R.G., Horibe, Y., 1985. Origin and evolution of water masses near the Antarctic continental margin: evidence from H218O/H216O ratios in seawater. In: Jacobs, S.S. (Ed.), Oceanology of the Antarctic Continental Shelf. Antarctic Research Series, vol. 43. pp. 59–85; Orsi, A.H., Johnson, G.C., Bullister, J.L., 1999. Circulation, mixing, and the production of Antarctic bottom water. Progress in Oceanography 109, 43–55]). These processes are driven by the atmospheric forcing which, at high latitude, plays a key role in the formation and thickness of sea ice. In order to investigate the effect of the atmospheric forcing variability at different time scales, we analysed the surface heat budget over the Ross Sea continental shelf and in Terra Nova Bay (TNB) polynya, using analyses for the period 1990–2006 provided by European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). This study was also performed using thermohaline data collected within the activities of Climatic Long-term Interaction for the mass-balance in Antarctica project of the Italian National Programme for Antarctic Research for the summer periods from 1994 until 2001.The annual average of the heat budget over the continental shelf of the Ross Sea estimated in the period 1990–2006 shows an interannual variability ranging between −97 and −123 W m⁻². Assuming that the heat loss must be compensated by the sensible heat carried by the Circumpolar Deep Water we estimated its transport (3.1 Sv) and its variability (0.2 Sv). Similarly in the TNB polynya the heat loss reaches its maximum in 2003 (−313 W m⁻²) and its minimum (−58 W m⁻²) in 1996. The related production of sea ice and the High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) were also estimated. The HSSW production switched from the lowest values during the first 10 years of the investigated period (1990–2000) to the highest values for the remaining period (2001–2006).The thermohaline characteristics of the water column in TNB show a general decrease in salinity with a superimposed variability. Comparison between the estimated HSSW production and the salinity observed within the TNB water column show similar tendency in the last years after 2002, while during the period 1995–1998 the behaviour is different. Our hypothesis concern a possible role of the CDW inflow in the TNB area and our results could be explained by a different contribution of CDW transport and HSSW production to the salt content within the water column.  相似文献   

ECMWF模式地面气温预报的四种误差订正方法的比较研究   总被引：16，自引：5，他引：11  

李佰平  智协飞 《气象》2012,38(8):897-902

采用均方根误差对欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECWMF）确定性预报模式2007年1月至2010年12月的地面气温预报结果进行评估,并分别利用一元线性回归、多元线性回归、单时效消除偏差和多时效消除偏差平均的订正方法,对ECMWF模式地面气温预报结果进行订正。结果表明,4种订正方法都能有效地减小地面气温多个时效预报的误差,改进幅度约为1℃。在短期预报中仅考虑最新预报结果的一元线性回归订正方法要优于考虑多个预报结果的多元集成预报订正方法。在中期预报中考虑多个预报结果的多元集成预报订正方法更优,更稳定。在模式预报误差较大的情况下,多时效集成的订正方法能更稳定地减小误差。  相似文献   

2011年12月至2012年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王毅 《气象》2012,38(5):629-634

对2011年12月至2012年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式的中期预报产品的预报性能进行天气学检验和对比分析。结果表明：三家模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整、演变及对流层中低层温度变化具有较好的预报能力。EC模式对西风指数和850 hPa温度的预报最接近零场;日本和T639模式次之。对冬季南支槽的预报,EC模式效果较好,T639和日本模式预报强度偏弱。三家模式对地面冷高压中心强度的预报均存在不同程度的偏弱,日本模式预报误差最小,T639模式和EC模式误差相对较大。  相似文献   

基于浮标、NCEP2及OAFlux产品的新海表感热和潜热通量对比分析     

张雷  石汉青 《海洋学报(英文版)》2017,36(9):27-38

New satellite-derived latent and sensible heat fluxes are performed by using Wind Sat wind speed, Wind Sat sea surface temperature, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting(ECMWF) air humidity, and ECMWF air temperature from 2004 to 2014. The 55 moored buoys are used to validate them by using the 30 min and 25 km collocation window. Furthermore, the objectively analyzed air-sea heat fluxes(OAFlux) products and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis 2(NCEP2) products are also used for global comparisons. The mean biases of sensible and latent heat fluxes between Wind Sat flux results and buoy flux data are –0.39 and –8.09 W/m~2, respectively. In addition, the rootmean-square(RMS) errors of the sensible and latent heat fluxes between them are 5.53 and 24.69 W/m~2,respectively. The RMS errors of sensible and latent heat fluxes are observed to gradually increase with an increasing buoy wind speed. The difference shows different characteristics with an increasing sea surface temperature, air humidity, and air temperature. The zonal average latent fluxes have some high regions which are mainly located in the trade wind zones where strong winds carry dry air in January, and the maximum value centers are found in the eastern waters of Japan and on the US east coast. Overall, the seasonal variability is pronounced in the Indian Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean. The three sensible and latent heat fluxes have similar latitudinal dependencies; however, some differences are found in some local regions.  相似文献   

利用ECMWF和GPS研究分析一次典型锋面雨     

王笑蕾  张勤  张双成 《大地测量与地球动力学》2017,37(5):478-481

ECMWF可提供大范围格网点上垂向维的水汽密度、温度、偏压等剖线数据,能反演获得大范围的气象要素及水汽值。GPS可反演获得单个点的水汽值,精度及时间分辨率都极高。本文综合两种反演方法的优点,研究台湾地区一次典型的锋面降雨,对降雨前后各气象要素的变化特征进行详细分析。结果表明,利用ECMWF的反演结果可判断在一定时间段内是否有降水的动力学条件;根据GPS反演水汽结果可以在更高的时间分辨率上对降水时间有指导作用。  相似文献   

两种数值模式资料的平均海平面气压和地面风速在中国区域的评估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

龚伟伟  师春香  张涛  孟现勇 《冰川冻土》2015,37(6):1497-1507

利用中国气象局国家级自动站(2 421个)的观测资料, 分别对2012年的ECMWF(欧洲中期数值预报中心)和JMA(日本气象厅)数值模式资料的平均海平面气压和地面风速在中国地区的适用性进行了对比研究.结果表明:两种数值模式资料均能在一定程度上反映观测资料所具有的时空分布特征, 东部地区的适用性均要高于西部地区. 对于平均海平面气压, 在西南地区JMA比ECMWF资料更接近实际观测; 而在其他地区, 两种数值模式资料都较接近实际观测, 冬季的结果比夏季好. 对于地面风速, 这两种数值模式资料各具优势.在中国东南部地区, JMA相对于ECMWF的地面风速资料更接近实际观测值, 而在中国西部地区, 则相反.就8个时次的年变化而言, ECMWF资料的年变化趋势与观测资料更为一致, 而JMA资料的地面风速大小与观测资料更为接近.  相似文献