Geodigest     

Hilary Davies 《Geology Today》2019,35(5):162-173

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Trends in Extreme Precipitation Events in the Indus River Basin and Flooding in Pakistan     

Heike Hartmann  Hilary Buchanan 《大气与海洋》2014,52(1):77-91

In the absence of a sufficiently dense network of climate stations covering all topographic regions of the Indus River basin and delivering high quality data over the last 30 years or more, daily precipitation data were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of the Enviornment (NCEP-DOE) Reanalysis 2 dataset for the period 1979 to 2011. The daily precipitation data were transformed into time series of frequency of extreme precipitation events of 1-day and 10-day durations defined in terms of 90th and 99th percentile threshold exceedances. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to determine whether statistically significant changes in precipitation extremes occurred over time, in due consideration of autocorrelation in the data.

Extreme precipitation showed a high spatial variability, with the highest daily and 10-day precipitation totals, and thus highest 90th and 99th percentiles, in the southeastern lowlands at the foot of the Himalayas and the lowest in the Karakorum. Significantly decreasing trends in extreme precipitation were observed in the western part of the Indus River basin; significantly increasing trends were mainly detected in the very high mountainous regions in the east (Transhimalaya and Himalayas) and in the north (Hindu Kush and Karakorum) of the Indus basin. High precipitation rates are not common in the arid climate of these high mountainous regions. Future flood management plans need to consider the increasing trends in extreme precipitation events in these areas.  相似文献   

A 500 yr speleothem-derived reconstruction of late autumn–winter precipitation, northeast Turkey     

Catherine N. Jex  Andy Baker  Jonathan M. Eden  Warren J. Eastwood  Ian J. Fairchild  Melanie J. Leng  Louise Thomas  Hilary J. Sloane 《Quaternary Research》2011,75(3):399-405

A verified instrumental calibration of annually resolved δ¹⁸O for a stalagmite from Gümü?hane in northeast Turkey is presented and cross-validated using a ‘leave-one-out’ technique. The amount of late autumn to winter precipitation is negatively correlated with stalagmite δ¹⁸O between AD 1938 and 2004. The observed relationship is extrapolated back to ~ AD 1500 leading to the first long winter precipitation reconstruction for this region. Modern day October to January precipitation is linked to pressure fields in Western Russia. Anomalously lower reconstructed rainfall is recorded in AD 1540–1560 at which time higher pressure over the Caspian Sea region is inferred.  相似文献   

Developing a long-term outlook for the Great Barrier Reef,Australia: A framework for adaptive management reporting underpinning an ecosystem-based management approach     

Kirstin Dobbs  Jon Day  Hilary Skeat  John Baldwin  Fergus Molloy  Laurence McCook  Margaret Johnson  Bruce Elliot  Andrew Skeat  Karen Vohland  David Wachenfeld  Richard Kenchington 《Marine Policy》2011

The Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2009 was the first produced in response to a newly legislated requirement for five-yearly reports on the status of and outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. It adopted an ecosystem approach, assessing all habitats and species, ecosystem processes and major uses. By then considering the factors affecting the ecosystem, coupled with an assessment of management effectiveness, it provided a risk-based forward-looking projection for the ecosystem. Rarely has such a comprehensive, ecosystem-based report been produced to guide government action. With no pre-determined path to follow for interpreting the legislative requirements, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) developed a repeatable structure and method for Great Barrier Reef Outlook Reports that impartially and consistently considers the evidence and clearly presents the findings. The GBRMPA worked closely with relevant Australian and Queensland Government agencies as well as researchers, industry representatives and the community while developing the report. That such a report must be produced every five years allows an overview of the effectiveness of management responses to be regularly assessed. It also provides a transparent means of highlighting and tracking emerging risks facing the Great Barrier Reef.  相似文献   

Japanese investment in the US fishing industry and its relation to the Two-Hundred-Mile Law     

Hilary K. Josephs 《Marine Policy》1978,2(4):255-267

After providing a statistical survey of Japanese direct investment in the US fishing industry, and a historical background of Japanese-US fishing relations, the author examines the statutory regulation of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the fishing industry. She then discusses international practice and restrictions on FDI, the recent response of Congress in view of the Two-Hundred-Mile Law, and the issue of protectionism and the competitive position of the US fishing industry.  相似文献   

Development of a Multimetric Index for Integrated Assessment of Salt Marsh Ecosystem Condition     

Jessica L. Nagel  Hilary A. Neckles  Glenn R. Guntenspergen  Erika N. Rocks  Donald R. SchoolmasterJr  James B. Grace  Dennis Skidds  Sara Stevens 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(2):334-348

Tools for assessing and communicating salt marsh condition are essential to guide decisions aimed at maintaining or restoring ecosystem integrity and services. Multimetric indices (MMIs) are increasingly used to provide integrated assessments of ecosystem condition. We employed a theory-based approach that considers the multivariate relationship of metrics with human disturbance to construct a salt marsh MMI for five National Parks in the northeastern USA. We quantified the degree of human disturbance for each marsh using the first principal component score from a principal components analysis of physical, chemical, and land use stressors. We then applied a metric selection algorithm to different combinations of about 45 vegetation and nekton metrics (e.g., species abundance, species richness, and ecological and functional classifications) derived from multi-year monitoring data. While MMIs derived from nekton or vegetation metrics alone were strongly correlated with human disturbance (r values from ?0.80 to ?0.93), an MMI derived from both vegetation and nekton metrics yielded an exceptionally strong correlation with disturbance (r = ?0.96). Individual MMIs included from one to five metrics. The metric-assembly algorithm yielded parsimonious MMIs that exhibit the greatest possible correlations with disturbance in a way that is objective, efficient, and reproducible.  相似文献   

Globalisation and Border Dynamics: impacts on the urban development of Darwin,Australia     

Jiaping Wu  Hilary P.M. Winchester 《The Australian geographer》2015,46(2):255-270

National boundaries and border cities have been transformed globally. This is partly due to neoliberal globalisation, the continuous formation of a ‘borderless world’ and partly to the global ‘war on terror’. Darwin, the capital city of the Northern Territory (NT), is on the northern coast of Australia, bordering its overseas Asian neighbours. Far away from the main Australian population centres in the south, the city grows slowly, relying mainly on Australian government investments, infrastructure, and the incorporation of defence programs in the north. The rise of Asia, as well as Australia's increasing economic reliance on Asia, has created new opportunities for Darwin's growth. The development of Asian economies has resulted in growing global investment in resource extraction in NT. Asia, though, has been seen as a key threat in the modern history of Australia. This national sensitivity is underpinned by the global ‘war on terror’ in which Australia is deeply involved. Australia has tight border control regimes and a growing military presence on the northern border area. This paper examines how these co-existing but contradictory dynamics have reshaped the urban development of Darwin City. The consequential social and spatial patterns are identified and discussed.  相似文献   

Imagery Scale and Type for Natural Hazards Analysis: Classroom Examples Using Forest Fires and Snow Avalanches     

David R. Butler  Hilary J.M. Sandford 《国际地球制图》2013,28(1):73-78

Abstract

The type of remotely sensed imagery best suited for natural hazards analysis is largely dependent on the geographic size and discreteness of the hazard in question. Some forms of imagery that are appropriate for analyses of spatially fixed, relatively fine‐scale hazards are inappropriate for use with geographically widespread and transient hazards, and vice versa. In this paper we utilize one study area, Waterton‐Glacier International Peace Park (Canada and USA), and two natural hazard types (snow avalanches and forest fires), to illustrate how these remote sensing principles can be presented to students of natural hazards. We also address the issue of familiarity, or lack thereof, that students have with different images from a variety of platforms.  相似文献   

Integrating Scales of Seagrass Monitoring to Meet Conservation Needs     

Hilary A. Neckles  Blaine S. Kopp  Bradley J. Peterson  Penelope S. Pooler 《Estuaries and Coasts》2012,35(1):23-46

We evaluated a hierarchical framework for seagrass monitoring in two estuaries in the northeastern USA: Little Pleasant Bay, Massachusetts, and Great South Bay/Moriches Bay, New York. This approach includes three tiers of monitoring that are integrated across spatial scales and sampling intensities. We identified monitoring attributes for determining attainment of conservation objectives to protect seagrass ecosystems from estuarine nutrient enrichment. Existing mapping programs provided large-scale information on seagrass distribution and bed sizes (tier 1 monitoring). We supplemented this with bay-wide, quadrat-based assessments of seagrass percent cover and canopy height at permanent sampling stations following a spatially distributed random design (tier 2 monitoring). Resampling simulations showed that four observations per station were sufficient to minimize bias in estimating mean percent cover on a bay-wide scale, and sample sizes of 55 stations in a 624-ha system and 198 stations in a 9,220-ha system were sufficient to detect absolute temporal increases in seagrass abundance from 25% to 49% cover and from 4% to 12% cover, respectively. We made high-resolution measurements of seagrass condition (percent cover, canopy height, total and reproductive shoot density, biomass, and seagrass depth limit) at a representative index site in each system (tier 3 monitoring). Tier 3 data helped explain system-wide changes. Our results suggest tiered monitoring as an efficient and feasible way to detect and predict changes in seagrass systems relative to multi-scale conservation objectives.  相似文献   

Introduction     

Jean-Pierre Burg  Hilary Downes 《Geodinamica Acta》2013,26(1-2):1-2

Manisa Fault is a geomorphologically distinct normal dip-slip fault, which oversees the southern edge of the Manisa Graben that is a continuum of the Gediz Graben towards the west. This study aims to determine the neotectonic activity of the Manisa Fault and the most recent time of the change in its stress condition through age-dating data obtained by using ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U dating methodology applied on the calcite coating that develops over hanging-wall of the Manisa Fault and the calcite veins that occur as fracture fillings. The age of the calcite precipitations associated with the Manisa Fault was determined to be between 307?±?203 and 444?±?101?ka by using the ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U dating method. Evaluation of the carbonate precipitations on the Manisa Fault along with the age data and the kinematic indicators ascertained that the Manisa Fault switched to a dip-slip normal faulting character from Middle Pleistocene onwards and that the region was under the effect of a NE–SW directional extensional regime. In addition, the opening rate was attempted to be determined using the roll-over anticline structure that advanced depending upon the movement of the fault on the upper horizontal strata of colluviums, which developed in association with the Manisa Fault. Along with the evaluation of the rise in the horizontal stratification in colluvium and the obtained age data, opening rate of the Manisa Fault was determined as 0.01?mm?y^?1.  相似文献