石家庄市空气污染预警天气背景分析及模型的建立   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

陈静  郭卫红  王素丽 《气象与环境学报》2007,23(6):62-67

根据石家庄市环境空气质量三级预警标准,系统分析了造成石家庄高浓度污染的天气背景、气象要素特征,建立了高浓度污染的天气模型和预警判别指标;并结合数值预报产品建立了集成预报模式,在此基础上利用数值预报产品提取预警指标,建立了经验指标法定性判别与定量预报相结合的空气污染预警系统。经业务应用表明:系统可以提高高浓度污染的预报准确率,是开展空气污染预警较为有效的方法。  相似文献   

两类容易引起超警戒水位海潮的台风     

杨彩福  周雁翎 《海洋预报》2005,22(3):45-53

本文从实测资料入手,总结A、B两类容易引起湛江（A类）和汕头（B类）超警戒水位海潮的台风,重点分析这两类台风引起超警戒水位海潮的原因,据此给予了两类海潮的预报方法。  相似文献   

我国典型滨海旅游区裂流灾害评估调查及风险管理动态          下载免费PDF全文

张尧  刘旭楠  董肇伟  陈新平  王斌  段德玉  孟庆垒 《海洋开发与管理》2018,35(7):16-25

为填补滨海旅游灾害防范的空白,文章详细介绍了国家海洋局海洋减灾中心着手开展我国典型滨海旅游区裂流危险评估、安全警示、公众科普等技术工作。归纳总结了地形动力学概化分析、精细化数值模拟、遥感影像分析、现场勘测等裂流灾害危险性评价技术方法;详细介绍了我国海南省三亚、陵水地区重点滨海旅游岸段的裂流灾害风险及安全警示现状的调查评估情况;分析探讨了近期国内频繁出现的海滩裂流溺水事故以及国内裂流灾害公众科普宣传动态;并提出了滨海旅游灾害防范下一步的专业技术工作和科学探索方面可能的发展方向。  相似文献   

短时强降雨对能见度的影响   总被引：10，自引：4，他引：6  

吴建军  袁成松  周曾奎  吴震 《气象科学》2010,30(2):274-278

利用安装在宁沪高速公路沿线26个AMW自动气象观测站监测的每小时雨量、每分钟雨强与每分钟能见度资料,分析了强降雨对能见度的影响,结果表明:短时强降雨大多数产生在暴雨天气过程中,随着每分钟雨强的增大,能见度急剧减小危及行车安全;结合交通运营管理部门的实际需求,确定了短时强降雨的定义和预警阈值,制定了短时强降雨的预警、临近预报流程。应用实例证明:该流程能够满足交通气象服务中短时强降雨的预警预报要求。  相似文献   

Tornado shelter-seeking behavior and tornado shelter options among mobile home residents in the United States   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Thomas W. Schmidlin  Barbara O. Hammer  Yuichi Ono  Paul S. King 《Natural Hazards》2009,48(2):191-201

Residents of 401 mobile homes in Georgia, Mississippi, Illinois, and Oklahoma were surveyed after they heard a tornado warning. Most residents (69%) did not seek shelter during the warning. Half of those who sought shelter went to the frame house of a friend, neighbor, or relative, and 25% of those sought shelter in a basement or underground shelter. Some of the places where residents sought shelter were of dubious quality, such as their own mobile home, another mobile home, or in an out-building. Twenty-one percent of mobile home residents believed that they had a basement or underground shelter available as shelter during a tornado warning, and about half of those said they would drive to the shelter. Residents said they would drive if the shelter was more than 200 m away. Fifteen percent actually had a basement or underground shelter suitable as shelter within 200 m of their mobile home, but only 43% of the residents would use those shelters. The most common reason cited for not using the shelters was that they did not know the people who lived there. Likewise, a frame house or other sturdy building was within 200 m of 58% of the mobile homes, but only 35% of the residents stated they would use those houses for shelter. Thirty-one percent of mobile home residents had a ditch that was at least 0.5 m deep within 200 m of the mobile home. However, 44% of these ditches had utility lines overhead, 23% had water in them, and 20% had trees overhead. The limited tornado shelter options among mobile home residents in the United States needs to be incorporated into safety instructions so that residents without nearby shelter are allowed to drive to safer shelter.  相似文献   

北部湾中小尺度灾害性强对流天气系统的次声/电磁波预警系统的研制与机理探讨     

韩元杰  李绍文  陈宏 《高原气象》2000,19(2):224-234

自行研制了次声阵与单台雷暴次声电磁波报警仪,它针对雷暴系统的夹卷过程中的电荷各界与释放和气流电磁特性与声学特性,利用其辐射电磁波和次声波作用源地与强度的信息指标,三年来对大于１７ｍ／ｓ（阵性）以上雷暴大风系统与过程无一漏报。１９９７年对７次灾害性雷雨大风,全部提前３￣６ｈ报出,减少了７千万元以上的损失。分析发现,雷暴系统孕育期间前兆次声信息,这与过去所得到的国内外雷暴成熟期的次声信息在频响特性上不  相似文献   

疫情常态化防控下重大工程项目进度管理 ——以国家地震烈度速报与预警工程为例     

张克诚  高楠  王松 《地震地磁观测与研究》2021,42(2):92-95

2020年以来,受新冠肺炎疫情影响,诸多在建工程项目的建设进度出现滞后,各项工作进度偏离年度目标,且此类影响将随着疫情常态化防控形势持续下去。国家地震烈度速报与预警工程作为全国性重大工程项目,在疫情期间,及时分析判断疫情对项目进度的影响,调整年度目标及建设任务,加强对建设单位和承建方的管理,完善自我工作方式,有效保证项目进度不出现较大偏差,为今后各类重大工程项目管理机制的完善及项目的有序进展提供参考。  相似文献   

国际海啸预警系统(ITWS)   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5  

刘瑞丰  梁建宏  任枭  陈宏峰  邹立晔 《地震地磁观测与研究》2005,26(1):3-7

介绍了国际海啸预警系统的构成、地震与海啸信息的检测、海啸预警信息的发布，并介绍了太平洋海啸预警中心和阿拉斯加海啸预警中心。  相似文献   

安顺市2015—2019年冰雹时空特征 及雷达临近预警指标研究     

李启芬 《中低纬山地气象》2022,46(5):16-21

利用安顺市2015-2019年降雹个例、Micaps常规观测资料以及贵阳雷达资料,分析总结了安顺市冰雹时空分布特征及雷达临近预警指标。结果表明：安顺市冰雹以直径20 mm以下的小冰雹为主,冰雹站次呈北多南少特征;冰雹天气主要发生在春季,4月最多,5月次之;2015—2019年期间,2019年安顺市冰雹站次最多,2017年最少。直径10 mm以上与直径10mm以下冰雹对应的雹云相比,其强回波值更强、降雹概率更高、强回波中心平均升降次数更多、上升幅度及最高上升高度更高（须在0 ℃层高度以上）、对应的径向速度场有明显特征（逆风区、辐合/辐散、旋转）的比例更高、径向速度特征（逆风区、辐合/辐散、旋转）出现时间较降雹时间提前量更多。此外,强回波中心上升高度（0 ℃层高度以上）越高,冰雹直径越大。以上雷达回波特征均可作为安顺市冰雹预警指标,有利于提高安顺市冰雹预警准确率及提前量。  相似文献   

Enhancing the human benefits of flood warnings     

Dennis Parker  Sue Tapsell  Simon McCarthy 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(3):397-414

This article evaluates some of the factors which limit the human benefits of hazard warnings, with specific reference to flood warnings, and we conclude by suggesting ways of enhancing these benefits. We focus mainly upon the economic benefits generated by flood damage savings by households that warnings facilitate; health effects of flooding and flood warnings; and the effects of warnings on loss of life and physical injury. Our results, based partly upon surveys of flooded households, reveal that economic benefits are currently more limited than we previously thought, but that for several reasons these benefits are likely to be under-estimated. We argue that the intangible benefits to public health, safety and security must also be taken into account in decisions about investment in flood warnings. In England and Wales, the public’s response to flood warnings is currently low and is a key benefit-limiting factor which could begin to undermine a recent major shift in national flood risk management policy towards a more people-centred, portfolio approach in which changing human behaviour is viewed as important. Using a trans-disciplinary approach, we discuss the evidence and literature surrounding this poor response, and suggest a number of ways in which the issue may be addressed in future.  相似文献