Daily rainfall projections from general circulation models with a downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) for south‐eastern Australia     

Guobin Fu  Stephen P. Charles  Sergey Kirshner 《水文研究》2013,27(25):3663-3673

An ensemble of stochastic daily rainfall projections has been generated for 30 stations across south‐eastern Australia using the downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model, which was driven by atmospheric predictors from four climate models for three IPCC emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) and for two periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). The results indicate that the annual rainfall is projected to decrease for both periods for all scenarios and climate models, with the exception of a few scenarios of no statistically significant changes. However, there is a seasonal difference: two downscaled GCMs consistently project a decline of summer rainfall, and two an increase. In contrast, all four downscaled GCMs show a decrease of winter rainfall. Because winter rainfall accounts for two‐thirds of the annual rainfall and produces the majority of streamflow for this region, this decrease in winter rainfall would cause additional water availability concerns in the southern Murray–Darling basin, given that water shortage is already a critical problem in the region. In addition, the annual maximum daily rainfall is projected to intensify in the future, particularly by the end of the 21st century; the maximum length of consecutive dry days is projected to increase, and correspondingly, the maximum length of consecutive wet days is projected to decrease. These changes in daily sequencing, combined with fewer events of reduced amount, could lead to drier catchment soil profiles and further reduce runoff potential and, hence, also have streamflow and water availability implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Satellite-tracked drifting buoy observations in the south equatorial current in the Indian Ocean     

S R Shetye  G S Michael 《Journal of Earth System Science》1988,97(2):149-157

Three satellite-tracked drifting buoys released in the south equatorial current in the Indian Ocean followed the path of the current moving westward approximately zonally in the vicinity of 10 S latitude. On nearing the east coast of Africa two buoys moved north and the third moved south. Over the open sea regime the buoys moved with a speed of approximately 30 cm/s at an angle of about 35° to the left of the wind. The overall tendencies seen in the buoy drift are similar to those observed elsewhere in the world oceans.  相似文献   

桐城桐山－庐江大化下古生界飞来峰及其地质意义     

汪来利  刘贻灿  石永红 《安徽地质》1994,(Z1)

桐城桐山－庐江大化的飞来峰位于早白垩世杨湾组（Ｋ＿１ｙ）弱变形的紫红色陆相碎屑岩之上，由下古生界的硅化粗晶灰岩，白云质灰岩及硅质岩组成，岩层强烈碎裂。其中伴生的张裂隙及剪切石香肠指示岩层由南东向北西逆冲。这一飞来峰的形成与郊庐断裂南段平移作用产生的次级逆冲有关。是由此产生的推覆体差异剥蚀的结果，这种次级逆冲推覆作用发生在扬子板块前陆褶冲带的变形之后。  相似文献   

南方大到暴雪的一种预报方法   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

高智松  魏柏温 《气象》1994,20(4):41-43

对构成南方大到暴雪的两个特征量：降水量和积雪深度用多种预报方法从晴雨、降水性质、降水量级、冰冻及积雪厚度等不同角度分别进行预报，然后通过推理组合，最终建立暴雪预报方法。该方法除了可以得出有无大到暴雪的预报结果外，还可以得到多种中间预报结果，从而适应预报服务的多种需要。在近３年的实际使用中获得了很好的效果。  相似文献   

闽南漳州沙建温泉区的微震观测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

周立功  褚志贤 《地球物理学报》1989,32(2):178-190

1982年9-12月,在漳州温泉区布设了台网进行微震观测。结果表明,在漳州及其以北的沙建温泉区一带均有微震与小震群活动,震级为M_s=-1～1级,震源为3-14km。用震源的分布、震源机制解和微震综合断层面解的结果,研究了地质断裂的现今活动性及其与温泉的关系。认为区内东西向与北东向断裂是控制温泉分布的主要构造,而北西向断裂则是温泉的涌水构造。经探明,在有浅层热储的漳州市以及地质断裂发育的沙建地区,地震波速与介质泊松系数均低于正常值。此外,台网尚观测记录到一些异常的振动现象。根据地震的综合信息,探讨了研究区微震活动与水热活动的关系。  相似文献   

吉林南部太古宙英云闪长质片麻岩类的特征及成因     

孙德有  葛文春  吴福元  周永胜 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》1995,(4)

吉林南部太古宙英云闪长质片麻岩类主要由石英闪长质、英云闪长质、花岗闪长质和奥长花岗质片麻岩组成。地质学、岩相学、地球化学研究表明，它们是同源岩浆通过结晶分异作用形成的，最主要的分离矿物相是角闪石和斜长石。岩浆来源于下地壳角闪质岩石的部分熔融作用。  相似文献   

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF GENERAL CIRCULATION, POLAR ICE AND SNOW DAYS / COVER OF EXTREMELY SEVERE COLD MONTHS IN SOUTH CHINA WINTER     

吴尚森  梁建茵 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2001,7(1):11-18

The work has made a statistic study of the variations of extremely severe cold winter months in the south of China and general circulation and external forcing factors in preceding periods. The result shows that from the current month to the preceding March the subtropical high in the west Pacific is persistently weak or located more to the east and south. When the summer monsoon is weak in East Asia in the year before, the winter monsoon will be strong in the current year in which the extremely severe cold month occurs. The Asian polar vortex expands in the preceding July, August and September and the current winter. The Tibetan Plateau has fewer days of snow cover in the November and December before the cold month occurs. There is less snow in the Tibetan Plateau in the preceding winter / spring of each extremely severe cold month. There are more polar ice in the polar Region for the 11 months before the current February, especially the previous March through August, and in Region in January ~ November before the current cold month of December but less ice in Region in March ~ August.  相似文献   

南秦岭中段中、上志留统金矿化特征及控制因素分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王海元  段湘益 《矿产与地质》2005,19(4):388-393

区域地球化学测量和金矿勘查工作显示,中、上志留统是南秦岭中段继泥盆系之后的又一套赋金地层,这套地层的分布区存在一条近EW向展布的金矿化带,宏观上,金矿化带的展布受青泥河-留坝复背斜和大河店-长坪-留坝区域性断裂带的控制.金矿（化）点和金矿（化）体的产出受层位、岩性、煌斑岩脉、火山活动、褶皱、层间构造破碎蚀变带、标高及氧化作用等因素的联合控制.矿体呈似层状产出,由多个呈串珠状展布的透镜体组成,金矿石类型以微细浸染型为主,属金-毒砂-黄铁矿建造.通过对已有矿（化）点和区域水系沉积物异常区进一步工作,有望找到中-大型金矿产地1～2处.  相似文献   

贵州南部晚石炭世一种新的生物礁类型   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

关长庆巩恩普  张永利孙宝亮陈鹤  郭建华李群 《地质论评》2007,53(4):433-439

黔南晚石炭世普遍发育了一套台地相的碳酸盐岩地层,其中多种底栖生物十分繁盛,为深入开展石炭纪生物礁研究提供了有利条件。近几年,随着研究的不断深入,笔者等陆续发现了一些新型的造礁生物,其中一种重要的造礁生物是一种类似藻类的生物。通过大量的野外观察和室内工作,笔者等发现：这种生物是黔南晚石炭世的重要造礁生物类型之一,它在台地边缘生物碎屑滩上以多种生长方式构建礁体。该生物具有两种生长形式：一种是生物体呈波状延续生长,弯曲环绕,层层叠置形成不同类型的纹层或席状;另一种是生物体在纵向和横向上相互交叉,构成规则或不规则的网格状形态。这种礁体的发现,丰富了石炭纪生物礁的类型。  相似文献   

BP人工神经网络在青藏铁路南段地壳稳定性定量评价中的应用     

周春景  吴珍汉  石广仁 《地质科技情报》2007,26(3):79-85

将BP人工神经网络方法引入区域构造活动性、区域地壳稳定性研究领域,对青藏铁路南段沿线的构造活动性进行定量分析.选用断层运动速率、地震震级、温泉温度及剪切应变4个关键影响因子作为BP人工神经网络的输入向量,构造活动强度(α)作为输出向量,以α为定量判据,将全区划分为相对稳定区(α＜0.22)、较不稳定区(α≈0.22～0.38)、不稳定区(α≈0.38～0.69)、极不稳定区或强烈构造活动区(α≥0.69).在青藏铁路南段沿线划分出格仁错、崩错、当雄-羊八井、错那湖、唐古拉山口南、聂荣东北、聂荣西北、雅鲁藏布江断裂沿线、萨迦等不稳定区,在不稳定区内部进一步划分出申扎、蓬错、尼木、桑雄、羊八井5个极不稳定区.  相似文献