Yangtze Delta, China: Taihu lake-level variation since the 1950s, response to sea-level rise and human impact   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Z. Y. Chen  Z. H. Wang 《Environmental Geology》1999,37(4):333-339

 Hydrological records collected from water gauge stations since the 1950s demonstrate that the Taihu lake level is rising. The average rate of the lake-level rise is 0.4–1.1 mm/year during the non-flood season, resulting directly from a rise in sea level. High rates of 3.0–5.0 mm/year of rise are even recorded during the wet season. This indicates increasing human activities such as reclamation, sluicing and embanking, which significantly hinder the expulsion of extra lake water to the coast shortly after a rainfall. Generally, the lake level of the western inlet is higher than that of the eastern outlet. However, the lake-level difference between the west and east has been diminished annually from ∼10–15 cm in the 1950s to <3 cm at the present time. During non-flood seasons, the lake-level difference even appears to be reversed, indicating a retrogression of the lake flow from east to west. It is predicted that the Taihu drainage basin will lose much of its natural water-expelling ability in the next 50 years as the sea level continues to rise, and retrogression will likely occur during the flood season in the near future. Received: 13 March 1998 · Accepted: 21 July 1998  相似文献   

近30年来乌鲁木齐河流域冰川波动特征与流域高山带升温幅度的 …   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

刘时银  谢自楚 《地球科学进展》1999,14(3):279-285

乌鲁木齐河流域典型冰川与全流域其他冰川波动的监测结果表明,５０年代末与６０年代初以来,各冲川均处于全面退缩状态,且冰川长度退缩量,面积和冰储量减小量与冰川的规模有密切的关系,大冰川退缩量大,但退缩量所占百分比较小,小冰川则相反,而且三者与冲川的长度等级有较好的统计关系。  相似文献   

Impact of model free parameters and sea-level rise uncertainties on 20-years shoreline hindcast: the case of Truc Vert beach (SW France)     

Maurizio D'Anna  Déborah Idier  Bruno Castelle  Gonéri Le Cozannet  Jeremy Rohmer  Arthur Robinet 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(8):1895-1907

Shoreline change is driven by various complex processes interacting at a large range of temporal and spatial scales, making shoreline reconstructions and predictions challenging and uncertain. Despite recent progress in addressing uncertainties related to the physics of sea-level rise, very little effort is made towards understanding and reducing the uncertainties related to wave-driven shoreline response. To fill this gap, the uncertainties associated with the long-term modelling of shoreline change are analysed at a high-energy cross-shore transport dominated site. Using the state-of-the-art LX-Shore shoreline change model, we produce a probabilistic shoreline reconstruction, based on 3000 simulations over the past 20 years at Truc Vert beach, southwest France, whereby sea-level rise rate, depth of closure and three model free parameters are considered uncertain variables. We further address the relative impact of each source of uncertainty on the model results performing a Global Sensitivity Analysis. This analysis shows that the shoreline changes are mainly sensitive to the three parameters of the wave-driven model, but also that the sensitivity to each of these parameters is strongly modulated seasonally and interannually, in relation with wave energy variability, and depends on the time scale of interest. These results have strong implications on the model skill sensitivity to the calibration period as well as for the predictive skill of the model in a context of future climate change affecting wave climate and extremes. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impacts of Holocene and modern sea-level changes on estuarine mangroves from northeastern Brazil     

Marcelo C.L. Cohen  Beatriz L. Figueiredo  Nedra N. Oliveira  Neuza A. Fontes  Marlon Carlos França  Luiz C.R. Pessenda  Adriana V. de Souza  Kita Macario  Paulo C.F. Giannini  José A. Bendassolli  Paula Lima 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(2):375-392

Projections of the impacts of modern Relative Sea Level (RSL) rise on estuarine mangroves should be supported by coastal topographic data and records of mangrove dynamics under past RSL change. This work identified inland and seaward mangrove migrations along the Jucuruçu River (Bahia, Northeastern Brazil), during the Holocene based on sedimentary features, palynological and geochemical (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, C/N) data integrated with digital elevation models. During the Middle Holocene, in response to RSL rise, the estuary saw mangrove forest establish up to ~37 km inland. RSL stood between -1.4 (+0.36/-2.2 m) and +1 (2.19/0.2 m) around 7400 cal yr BP, and rose to a highest position of +3.25 (4.22/2.45 m) reached around 5350 cal yr BP. That marine incursion caused the inland replacement of freshwater vegetation by mangroves on tidal flats. Since then, the estuary experienced RSL fall, reducing inland tidal water salinity towards the Late Holocene, making that the mangroves were replaced by freshwater floodplain vegetation. Today, in the seaward part of the estuary near its mouth, mangroves occupy an area of ~10 km² along tidal channels. Considering a RSL rise of 98 cm up to the end of the 21^st century, at a rate significantly higher than that of Middle Holocene RSL rise (1.5 mm/yr) and fall (0.6 mm/yr), the current mangrove substrates are expected to drown and/or eroded near the coast, while new mangroves may establish inland, at topographically higher tidal flats in nowadays freshwater-tidal zones. Mangrove area could expand over 13 km² of coastal and flood plain. Following the same interaction between RSL/climate changes and Holocene mangrove dynamics, such upstream mangrove migration may be attenuated or intensified by changes in fluvial discharge. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

论太湖平原洪涝灾害与水利工程问题和发展趋势   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

陈西庆  陈吉余 《湖泊科学》1994,6(4):364-374

在分析研究太湖流域洪涝灾害成因及以围圩、筑堤、建闸为特点的圩区经济基础上,论述了近几十年来流域下垫面变化对流域水情的影响。总结了近40年来流域水利工程规划设计的经验与不足之处;展望了未来几十年流域水情变化发展趋势,特别是全球海平面上升对流域洪水蓄、泄方面的重大影响。指出在流域十大骨干水利工程的基础上,今后流域中新建骨干工程的关键目标是提高长江南岸、杭州湾北岸闭闸时段的排洪能力及建设吴淞挡潮闸,从而大幅度提高各潮周期内黄浦江净泄洪量;同时运用非工程措施,确保与充分利用区内洪水调蓄能力。  相似文献   

Transfer function noise modelling of groundwater level fluctuation using threshold rainfall-based binary-weighted parameter estimation approach     

S. Mohanasundaram  Balaji Narasimhan  G. Suresh Kumar 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(1):36-49

Considerable uncertainty occurs in the parameter estimates of traditional rainfall–water level transfer function noise (TFN) models, especially with the models built using monthly time step datasets. This is due to the equal weights assigned for rainfall occurring during both water level rise and water level drop events while estimating the TFN model parameters using the least square technique. As an alternative to this approach, a threshold rainfall-based binary-weighted least square method was adopted to estimate the TFN model parameters. The efficacy of this binary-weighted approach in estimating the TFN model parameters was tested on 26 observation wells distributed across the Adyar River basin in Southern India. Model performance indices such as mean absolute error and coefficient of determination values showed that the proposed binary-weighted approach of fitting independent threshold-based TFN models for water level rise and water level drop scenarios considerably improves the model accuracy over other traditional TFN models.