Elevation Dependence of Winter Wheat Production in Eastern Washington State with Climate Change: A Methodological Study     

Allison M. Thomson  Robert A. Brown  Steven J. Ghan  R. Cesar Izaurralde  Norman J. Rosenberg  L. Ruby Leung 《Climatic change》2002,54(1-2):141-164

Crop growth models, used in climate change impact assessments to project production on a local scale, can obtain the daily weather information to drive them from models of the Earth's climate. General Circulation Models (GCMs), often used for this purpose, provide weather information for the entire globe but often cannot depict details of regional climates especially where complex topography plays an important role in weather patterns. The U.S. Pacific Northwest is an important wheat growing region where climate patterns are difficult to resolve with a coarse scale GCM. Here, we use the PNNL Regional Climate Model (RCM) which uses a sub-grid parameterization to resolve the complex topography and simulate meteorology to drive the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) crop model. The climate scenarios were extracted from the PNNL-RCM baseline and 2 × CO₂ simulationsfor each of sixteen 90 km² grid cells of the RCM, with differentiation byelevation and without correction for climate biases. The dominant agricultural soil type and farm management practices were established for each grid cell. Using these climate and management data in EPIC, we simulated winter wheat production in eastern Washington for current climate conditions (baseline) and a 2 × CO₂ `greenhouse' scenario of climate change.Dryland wheat yields for the baseline climate averaged 4.52 Mg ha^–1 across the study region. Yields were zero at high elevations where temperatures were too low to allow the crops to mature. The highest yields (7.32 Mgha^–1) occurred at intermediate elevations with sufficientprecipitation and mild temperatures. Mean yield of dryland winter wheat increased to 5.45 Mg ha^–1 for the 2 × CO₂ climate, which wasmarkedly warmer and wetter. Simulated yields of irrigated wheat were generally higher than dryland yields and followed the same pattern but were, of course, less sensitive to increases in precipitation. Increases in dryland and irrigated wheat yields were due, principally, to decreases in the frequency of temperature and water stress. This study shows that the elevation of a farm is a more important determinant of yield than farm location in eastern Washington and that climate changes would affect wheat yields at all farms in the study.  相似文献   

东南极冰盖Lambert冰川流域的物质平衡研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

任贾文  Ian Allison  效存德  秦大河 《中国科学D辑》2002,32(2):134-140

Lambert冰川流域是南极冰盖最大的冰流系统, 因而在整个南极冰盖的物质平衡中占有非常重要的地位. 近年来穿越该冰川流域的路线考察所获得的现场观测资料和浅冰芯研究结果显示, 该冰川东、西两侧的积累速率分布和近期变化有明显差异: 东侧积累速率较高且近几十年来呈增加趋势, 西侧积累速率较低且过去几十年为明显减小. 冰体运动速度测量和冰流通量计算表明, 该冰川东侧运动速度较快, 冰流量也较大, 说明该冰川冰量补给主要来源于东侧区域. 计算出的考察断面上游物质积累总量大于流出的冰通量约13%, 意味着该流域目前处于物质正平衡状态, 如果保持目前气候状态, 冰盖将会增厚.  相似文献   

Palaeoenvironmental records from fossil corals: The effects of submarine diagenesis on temperature and climate estimates     

Nicola Allison  Adrian A. Finch  David A. Clague 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2007,71(19):4693-4703

The geochemistry of coral skeletons may reflect seawater conditions at the time of deposition and the analysis of fossil skeletons offers a method to reconstruct past climate. However the precipitation of cements in the primary coral skeleton during diagenesis may significantly affect bulk skeletal geochemistry. We used secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) to measure Sr, Mg, B, U and Ba concentrations in primary coral aragonite and aragonite and calcite cements in fossil Porites corals from submerged reefs around the Hawaiian Islands. Cement and primary coral geochemistry were significantly different in all corals. We estimate the effects of cement inclusion on climate estimates from drilled coral samples, which combine cements and primary coral aragonite. Secondary 1% calcite or ∼2% aragonite cement contamination significantly affects Sr/Ca SST estimates by +1 °C and −0.4 to −0.9 °C, respectively. Cement inclusion also significantly affects Mg/Ca, B/Ca and U/Ca SST estimates in some corals. X-ray diffraction (XRD) will not detect secondary aragonite cements and significant calcite contamination may be below the limit of detection (∼1%) of the technique. Thorough petrographic examination of fossils is therefore essential to confirm that they are pristine before bulk drilled samples are analysed. To confirm that the geochemistry of the original coral structures is not affected by the precipitation of cements in adjacent pore spaces we analysed the primary coral aragonite in cemented and uncemented areas of the skeleton. Sr/Ca, B/Ca and U/Ca of primary coral aragonite is not affected by the presence of cements in adjacent interskeletal pore spaces i.e. the coral structures maintain their original composition and selective SIMS analysis of these structures offers a route to the reconstruction of accurate SSTs from altered coral skeletons. However, Mg/Ca and Ba/Ca of primary coral aragonite are significantly higher in parts of skeletons infilled with high Mg calcite cement. We hypothesise this reflects cement infilling of intraskeletal pore spaces in the primary coral structure.  相似文献   

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment     

Allison?M.?ThomsonEmail author  Norman?J.?Rosenberg  R.?Cesar?Izaurralde  Robert?A.?Brown 《Climatic change》2005,69(1):27-41

As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the General Circulation Model (GCM)-derived climate change projections, described in Part 1, to drive the crop production and water resource models EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) and HUMUS (Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States). These models are described and validated in this paper using historical crop yields and streamflow data in the conterminous United States in order to establish their ability to accurately simulate historical crop and water conditions and their capability to simulate crop and water response to the extreme climate conditions predicted by GCMs. EPIC simulated grain and forage crop yields are compared with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and with yields from agricultural experiments. EPIC crop yields correspond more closely with USDA historical county yields than with the higher yields from intensively managed agricultural experiments. The HUMUS model was validated by comparing the simulated water yield from each hydrologic basin with estimates of natural streamflow made by the US Geological Survey. This comparison shows that the model is able to reproduce significant observed relationships and capture major trends in water resources timing and distribution across the country.  相似文献   

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment     

Allison?M.?ThomsonEmail author  Norman?J.?Rosenberg  R.?Cesar?Izaurralde  Robert?A.?Brown 《Climatic change》2005,69(1):89-105

During this century global warming will lead to changes in global weather and climate, affecting many aspects of our environment. Agriculture is the sector of the United States economy most likely to be directly impacted by climatic changes. We have examined potential changes in dryland agriculture (Part 3) and in water resources necessary for crop production (Part 4) in response to a set of climate change scenarios. In this paper we assess to what extent, under these same scenarios, water supplies will be sufficient to meet the irrigation requirement of major grain crops in the US. In addition, we assess the overall impacts of changes in water supply on national grain production. We apply the 12 climate change scenarios described in Part 1 to the water resources and crop growth simulation models described in Part 2 for the conterminous United States. Drawing on data from Parts 3 and 4 we calculate what the aggregate national production would be in those regions in which grain crops are currently produced by applying irrigation where needed and water supplies allow. The total amount of irrigation water applied to crops declines under all climate change scenarios employed in this study. Under certain of the scenarios and in particular regions, precipitation decreases so much that water supplies are too limited; in other regions precipitation becomes so plentiful that little value is derived from irrigation. Nationwide grain crop production is greater when irrigation is applied as needed. Under irrigation, less corn and soybeans are produced under most of the climate change scenarios than is produced under baseline climate conditions. Winter wheat production under irrigation responds significantly to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO₂] and appears likely to increase under climate change.  相似文献   

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment     

Steven?J.?SmithEmail author  Allison?M.?Thomson  Norman?J.?Rosenberg  R.?Cesar?Izaurralde  Robert?A.?Brown  Tom?M.?L.?Wigley 《Climatic change》2005,69(1):7-25

As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how derivative changes in climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using twelve scenarios derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) projections to drive biophysical impact models. These scenarios are described in this paper. The scenarios are first put into the context of recent work on climate-change by the IPCC for the 21st century and span two levels of global-mean temperature change and three sets of spatial patterns of change derived from GCM results. In addition, the effect of either the presence or absence of a CO₂ fertilization effect on vegetation is examined by using two levels of atmospheric CO₂ concentration as a proxy variable. Results from three GCM experiments were used to produce different regional patterns of climate change. The three regional patterns for the conterminous United States range from: an increase in temperature above the global-mean level along with a significant decline in precipitation; temperature increases in line with the global-mean with an average increase in precipitation; and, with a sulfate aerosol effect added to in the same model, temperature increases that are lower than the global-mean. The resulting set of scenarios span a wide range of potential climate changes and allows examination of the relative importance of global-mean temperature change, regional climate patterns, aerosol cooling, and CO₂ fertilization effects.  相似文献   

The Environment of Gender and Science: Status and Perspectives of Women and Men in Physical Geography     

Sheryl Luzzadder‐Beach  Allison Macfarlane 《The Professional geographer》2000,52(3):407-424

In 1995 and 1996 we undertook surveys to identify the status, perspectives, and contributions of women and men in physical geography and geosciences/geology, and to study the evolution of our fields. This paper presents the results of the physical geography survey, and considers the following questions: How have academic men and women physical geographers' professional development experiences differed? Do men and women in physical geography emphasize different research areas? Do their research methods differ from one another? Gender differences were identified most strikingly in rank and tenure status, research topics and methodologies, and professional satisfaction. Generational differences by academic rank were identified in professional satisfaction and in pull factors. Minor gender differences were found in dual career couple status, but this status had major effects on career choices and opportunities for both men and women. This paper is part of our larger project aimed at comparing and contrasting geoscience/geology and physical geography, and at including the earth sciences in gender and science studies that have long focused on mathematics, chemistry, biology, and physics.  相似文献   

The role of rainfall temporal and spatial averaging in seasonal simulations of the terrestrial water balance     

Alexa A. Sampson  Daniel B. Wright  Ryan D. Stewart  Allison C. LoBue 《水文研究》2020,34(11):2531-2542

The partitioning of rainfall into surface runoff and infiltration influences many other aspects of the hydrologic cycle including evapotranspiration, deep drainage and soil moisture. This partitioning is an instantaneous non-linear process that is strongly dependent on rainfall rate, soil moisture and soil hydraulic properties. Though all rainfall datasets involve some degree of spatial or temporal averaging, it is not understood how this averaging affects simulated partitioning and the land surface water balance across a wide range of soil and climate types. We used a one-dimensional physics-based model of the near-surface unsaturated zone to compare the effects of different rainfall discretization (5-min point-scale; hourly point-scale; hourly 0.125° gridded) on the simulated partitioning of rainfall for many locations across the United States. Coarser temporal resolution rainfall data underpredicted seasonal surface runoff for all soil types except those with very high infiltration capacities (i.e., sand, loamy sand). Soils with intermediate infiltration capacities (i.e., loam, sandy loam) were the most affected, with less than half of the expected surface runoff produced in most soil types when the gridded rainfall dataset was used as input. The impact of averaging on the water balance was less extreme but non-negligible, with the hourly point-scale predictions exhibiting median evapotranspiration, drainage and soil moisture values within 10% of those predicted using the higher resolution 5-min rainfall. Water balance impacts were greater using the gridded hourly dataset, with average underpredictions of ET up to 27% in fine-grained soils. The results suggest that “hyperresolution” modelling at continental to global scales may produce inaccurate predictions if there is not parallel effort to produce higher resolution precipitation inputs or sub-grid precipitation parameterizations.  相似文献   

Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States     

David Mills  Russell Jones  Karen Carney  Alexis St. Juliana  Richard Ready  Allison Crimmins  Jeremy Martinich  Kate Shouse  Benjamin DeAngelo  Erwan Monier 《Climatic change》2015,131(1):163-178

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Thinking globally and siting locally – renewable energy and biodiversity in a rapidly warming world     

Taber D. Allison  Terry L. Root  Peter C. Frumhoff 《Climatic change》2014,126(1-2):1-6

Increasing greenhouse gas emissions are projected to raise global average surface temperatures by 3?–4 °C within this century, dramatically increasing the extinction risk for terrestrial and freshwater species and severely disrupting ecosystems across the globe. Limiting the magnitude of warming and its devastating impacts on biodiversity will require deep emissions reductions that include the rapid, large-scale deployment of low-carbon renewable energy. Concerns about potential adverse impacts to species and ecosystems from the expansion of renewable energy development will play an important role in determining the pace and scale of emissions reductions and hence, the impact of climate change on global biodiversity. Efforts are underway to reduce uncertainty regarding wildlife impacts from renewable energy development, but such uncertainty cannot be eliminated. We argue the need to accept some and perhaps substantial risk of impacts to wildlife from renewable energy development in order to limit the far greater risks to biodiversity loss owing to climate change. We propose a path forward for better reconciling expedited renewable energy development with wildlife conservation in a warming world.  相似文献