The impact of shale gas on the costs of climate policy     

Jan Kersting  Vicki Duscha  Joachim Schleich  Kimon Keramidas 《Climate Policy》2018,18(4):442-458

The use of shale gas is commonly considered as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious climate policy targets. This article explores global and country-specific effects of increasing global shale gas exploitation on the energy markets, on greenhouse gas emissions, and on mitigation costs. The global techno-economic partial equilibrium model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) is employed to compare policies which limit global warming to 2°C and baseline scenarios when the availability of shale gas is either high or low. According to the simulation results, a high availability of shale gas has rather small effects on the costs of meeting climate targets in the medium and long term. In the long term, a higher availability of shale gas increases baseline emissions of greenhouse gases for most countries and for the world, and leads to higher compliance costs for most, but not all, countries. Allowing for global trading of emission certificates does not alter these general results. In sum, these findings cast doubt on shale gas’s potential as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious global climate targets.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Many countries with a large shale gas resource base consider the expansion of local shale gas extraction as an option to reduce their GHG emissions. The findings in this article imply that a higher availability of shale gas in these countries might actually increase emissions and mitigation costs for these countries and also for the world. An increase in shale gas extraction may spur a switch from coal to gas electricity generation, thus lowering emissions. At the global level and for many countries, though, this effect is more than offset by a crowding out of renewable and nuclear energy carriers, and by lower energy prices, leading to higher emissions and higher mitigation costs in turn. These findings would warrant a re-evaluation of the climate strategy in most countries relying on the exploitation of shale gas to meet their climate targets.  相似文献   

Wet Fault or Dry Fault? A Laboratory Approach to Remotely Monitor the Hydro-Mechanical State of a Discontinuity Using Controlled-Source Seismics     

Joachim Place  Oshaine Blake  Daniel Faulkner  Andreas Rietbrock 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(11):2887-2897

Stress variation and fluid migration occur in deformation zones, which are expected to affect seismic waves reflected off or propagating across such structures. We developed a basic experimental approach to monitor the mechanical coupling with respect to seismic coupling across a single discontinuity between a granite sample in contact with a steel platen. Piezoceramics located on the platen were used to both generate and record the P and S wave fields reflected off the discontinuity at normal incidence. This way, normal (B _n ) and tangential (B _t ) compliances were calculated using Schoenberg’s linear slip theory (Schoenberg, J Acoust Soc Am 68:1516–1521, 1980) when the roughness, the effective pressure (P _eff, up to 200 MPa), and the nature of the filling (gas or water) vary. We observe that increasing the effective pressure decreases B _n and B _t , which is interpreted as the effect of the closure of the voids at the interface, permitting more seismic energy to be transmitted across the interface. Values of B _n are significantly higher than those of B _t at low P _eff (<60–80 MPa) in dry conditions, and significantly drop under water-saturated conditions. The water filling the voids therefore helps to transmit the seismic energy of compressional waves across the interface. These results show that the assumption B _n  ≈ B _t commonly found in some theoretical approaches does not always stand. The ratio B _n /B _t actually reflects the type of saturating fluids and the effective pressure, in agreement with other experimental studies. However, we illustrate that only the relative variations of this ratio seem to be relevant, not its absolute value as suggested in previous studies. Consequently, the use of B _n against B _t plots may allow effective pressure variation and the nature of the pore fluid to be inferred. In this respect, this experimental approach at sample scale helps to pave the way for remotely monitoring in the field the hydro-mechanical state of deformation zones, such as seismogenic faults, fractured reservoirs, or lava conduits.  相似文献   

Cladoceran community composition in tropical semi-arid highland reservoirs in Tigray (Northern Ethiopia): A metacommunity perspective applied to young reservoirs     

Tadesse Dejenie  Steven A.J. Declerck  Tsehaye AsmelashSarah Risch  Joachim Mergeay  Tom De BieLuc De Meester 《Limnologica》2012,42(2):137-143

A field survey of zooplankton communities was carried out in 32 recently established tropical semi-arid reservoirs in the highlands of Northern Ethiopia with the aim to identify to what extent environmental factors determine species composition of the cladoceran community in such isolated and young reservoirs. To address seasonal variation, the survey was carried out both at the beginning and the end of the dry season. A total of 15 species of cladocerans were identified. Daphnia was the most abundant cladoceran genus, and was present in all reservoirs. Using presence-absence data, no association between cladoceran community composition and geographic distance was found. RDA results indicate that the set of environmental variables that explained cladoceran community composition differed among seasons. Depth, altitude and fish biomass showed a significant association with cladoceran community composition during the wet season, whereas variation in cladoceran community structure was associated with phytoplankton biomass in the dry season. The relative abundance of Daphnia was much higher in the pelagic than in the littoral zone of our study systems. Two key groups of pelagic filter-feeding cladocerans, Diaphanosoma and Daphnia, showed a clear pattern, in which one or the other tended to strongly dominate the community. In addition, we observed a negative association between dominance of Daphnia in the zooplankton community and dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community.  相似文献   

Rotational sensors—a comparison of different sensor types     

Felix Bernauer  Joachim Wassermann  Heiner Igel 《Journal of Seismology》2012,16(4):595-602

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Effects of volume on travel distance of mass movements triggered by the 2005 Kashmir earthquake,in the Northeast Himalayas of Pakistan   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Muhammad Basharat  Joachim Rohn 《Natural Hazards》2015,77(1):273-292

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Higher-order compositional modeling with Fickian diffusion in unstructured and anisotropic media     

Joachim Moortgat  Abbas Firoozabadi 《Advances in water resources》2010

We present advances in compositional modeling of two-phase multi-component flow through highly complex porous media. Higher-order methods are used to approximate both mass transport and the velocity and pressure fields. We employ the Mixed Hybrid Finite Element (MHFE) method to simultaneously solve, to the same order, the pressure equation and Darcy's law for the velocity. The species balance equation is approximated by the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) approach, combined with a slope limiter. In this work we present an improved DG scheme where phase splitting is analyzed at all element vertices in the two-phase regions, rather than only as element averages. This approximation is higher-order than the commonly employed finite volume method and earlier DG approximations. The method reduces numerical dispersion, allowing for an accurate capture of shock fronts and lower dependence on mesh quality and orientation. Further new features are the extension to unstructured grids and support for arbitrary permeability tensors (allowing for both scalar heterogeneity, and shear anisotropy). The most important advancement in this work is the self-consistent modeling of two-phase multi-component Fickian diffusion. We present several numerical examples to illustrate the powerful features of our combined MHFE–dg method with respect to lower-order calculations, ranging from simple two component fluids to more challenging real problems regarding CO₂ injection into a vertical domain saturated with a multi-component petroleum fluid.  相似文献   

Complex deep seismic anisotropy below the Scandinavian Mountains     

Corinna Roy  Joachim R. R. Ritter 《Journal of Seismology》2013,17(2):361-384

Several seismological projects focused on the deep structure of the Scandinavian Mountains, in Norway and neighbouring Sweden. We use these recordings to study seismic anisotropy by analysing the birefringence of SKS and SKKS phases. These phases, which should be polarised radially, are split into an additional transverse component if they propagate through an anisotropic medium. Our results are directions Φ of the apparent fast shear wave polarisation and delay times δt between the split phases. For station KONO in Southern Norway, we find frequency-dependent Φ and δt values, indicating a depth-dependent anisotropy. Additionally, Φ and δt values vary with epicentre backazimuths in Norway, indicating a complex anisotropic structure in the crust and upper mantle. Stacking of the SKS/SKKS waveforms improves the signal-to-noise ratio along one station line and allows us to better determine the splitting parameters. A unique and complete model of the complex anisotropy cannot be obtained due to the limited observed backazimuth range. Near-surface tectonic structures correlate with the splitting pattern and thus the crust is one anisotropic layer in the region. Partly preferred orientations in the rock fabric at the surface can be correlated with Φ. Below one or more anisotropic layers must exist to explain the backazimuth- and frequency-dependent observations, as well as the long δt values (>2 s) which cannot be explained with crustal anisotropy alone. The spatial distribution of the splitting results indicates that different tectonics units, e.g. the Sveconorwegian, the Central and Northern Svecofennian and the Caledonian nappes, are each characterised by specific anisotropic signatures.  相似文献   

Gradient-Based Turbulence Estimates from Multicopter Profiles in the Arctic Stable Boundary Layer     

Greene  Brian R.  Kral  Stephan T.  Chilson  Phillip B.  Reuder  Joachim 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2022,183(3):321-353

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - We explore the potential of a new method for the estimation of profiles of turbulence statistics in the stable boundary layer (SBL). By applying gradient-based scaling...  相似文献   

Reply to “Comment on ‘Small-scale heterogeneities below the Lanzhou CTBTO seismic array,from seismic wavefield fluctuation’ by Li Lei”     

Xuzhang Shen  Joachim R. R. Ritter 《Journal of Seismology》2011,15(1):171-172

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Experimental growth of åkermanite reaction rims between wollastonite and monticellite: evidence for volume diffusion control     

Bastian Joachim  Emmanuel Gardés  Rainer Abart  Wilhelm Heinrich 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2011,161(3):389-399

Growth rates of monomineralic, polycrystalline åkermanite (Ca₂MgSi₂O₇) rims produced by solid-state reactions between monticellite (CaMgSiO₄) and wollastonite (CaSiO₃) single crystals were determined at 0.5 GPa dry argon pressure, 1,000–1,200°C and 5 min to 60 h, using an internally heated pressure vessel. Inert Pt-markers, initially placed at the monticellite–wollastonite interface, indicate symmetrical growth into both directions. This and mass balance considerations demonstrate that rim growth is controlled by transport of MgO. At 1,200°C and run durations between 5 min and 60 h, rim growth follows a parabolic rate law with rim widths ranging from 0.4 to 16.3 μm indicating diffusion-controlled rim growth. The effective bulk diffusion coefficient \( D_{\text{eff,MgO}}^{\text{Ak}} \) is calculated to 10^?15.8±0.1 m² s^?1. Between 1,000°C and 1,200°C, the effective bulk diffusion coefficient follows an Arrhenius law with E _a = 204 ± 18 kJ/mol and D ₀ = 10^?8.6±1.6 m² s^?1. Åkermanite grains display a palisade texture with elongation perpendicular to the reaction interface. At 1,200°C, average grain widths measured normal to elongation, increase with the square root of time and range from 0.4 to 5.4 μm leading to a successive decrease in the grain boundary area fraction, which, however, does not affect \( D_{\text{eff,MgO}}^{\text{Ak}} \) to a detectible extent. This implies that grain boundary diffusion only accounts for a minor fraction of the overall chemical mass transfer, and rim growth is essentially controlled by volume diffusion. This is corroborated by the agreement between our estimates of the effective MgO bulk diffusion coefficient and experimentally determined volume diffusion data for Mg and O in åkermanite from the literature. There is sharp contrast to the MgO–SiO₂ binary system, where grain boundary diffusion controls rim growth.  相似文献