Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of biological reference points for a spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery     

Yi‐Jay Chang  Chi‐Lu Sun  Yong Chen  Su‐Zan Yeh  Wei‐Chuan Chiang 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(1):429-442

The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F _0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F _4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (F _cnr) and estimates of biological reference points (F _BRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F _40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F _0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery.  相似文献   

Recent warming in the Yellow/East China Sea during winter and the associated atmospheric circulation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sang-Wook Yeh  Cheol-Ho Kim 《Continental Shelf Research》2010

We examine characteristics in the variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Yellow/East China Sea during the boreal winter (December–January–February) for the period 1950–2008 in observations. It is found that the mean SST in the Yellow Sea/East China Sea gradually increases during recent decades. A warming trend of a basin scale SST is significant in most of the regions in the Yellow/East Sea, which is well explained by the variability of the first empirical orthogonal function SST mode. We suggest one candidate mechanism that the North Pacific oscillation (NPO)-like sea level pressure play an important role to warm the Yellow/East China Sea. Anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which is the southern lobe of NPO-like sea level pressure over the North Pacific, causes a weakening of northerly mean winds over the Yellow/East China Sea during winter. This contributes to increase in the SST in the Yellow/East China Sea through the changes in the latent heat and sensible heat fluxes.  相似文献   

40Ar/39Ar dating of the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones: Implications for crustal deformation around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis     

Te-Hsien Lin  Ching-Hua Lo  Sun-Lin Chung  Fang-Jui Hsu  Meng-Wan Yeh  Tung-Yi Lee  Jian-Qing Ji  Yi-Zhau Wang  Dunyi Liu 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2009,34(5):674-685

We conducted a comprehensive ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronological study of the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones to obtain a better understanding of crustal deformation and tectonic evolution around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis (EHS). The new age data reveal that the main phase of deformation in the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones occurred from 22 to 11 Ma and from 18 to 13 Ma, respectively. Structural data collected during this study indicate that the Jiali shear zone underwent a change in shear sense from sinistral to dextral during its movement history. Based on a comparison with the deformation histories of other major shear zones in the region, we argue that the initial sinistral motion recorded by the Jiali shear zone was coincident with that of the Ailao Shan–Red River shear zone, which marked the northern boundary of the southeastward extrusion of the Indochina block during the Early Miocene. From the Middle Miocene (～18 Ma), the Jiali shear zone changed to dextral displacement, becoming linked with the dextral Gaoligong shear zone that developed as a consequence of continued northward indentation of the Indian continent into Asia. Since this time, the Jiali and Gaoligong shear zones have been united, defining the southwestern boundary of the EHS during clockwise rotation of the eastward-extruding Tibetan block, as revealed by recent GPS data. The temporal change in regional deformation pattern from southeastward block extrusion to clockwise rotation of crustal fragments may have played an important role in the development of the eastern Himalayan drainage system around the EHS.  相似文献   

A study on terrain-induced tropical cyclone looping in East Taiwan: case study of Typhoon Haitang in 2005     

Tien-Chiang Yeh  Ling-Feng Hsiao  Der-Song Chen  Kang-Ning Huang 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(3):1497-1514

A mesoscale mountain such as the Central Mountain Range (CMR) of Taiwan can considerably affect the motion and the structure of an approaching tropical cyclone in very complicated ways. Many studies have presented and explained the mechanism for the change of moving speed, track deflection, or track discontinuity. In the past, the tracks of Typhoon Mary (1965), Tropical Cyclone Polly (1993), and Typhoon Haitang (2005) have a looping motion prior to making landfall on Taiwan. When the looping occurs, the timing and the intensity of the typhoon to affect Taiwan can be very different from the one moving with smooth track. It is very important to have a correct forecast for disaster mitigation operations. However, the mechanism causing such looping has not been fully understood. In this study, the case of Typhoon Haitang is examined. The radar reflectivity diagrams are used to illustrate looping in its track. By applying piecewise potential vorticity inversion analysis and numerical model simulations, it is shown that the looping motion of Typhoon Haitang near Taiwan resulted from the CMR terrain effect. When Typhoon Haitang approaches Taiwan and its circulation encounters the CMR, the terrain induces a cyclonic vortex in the lee side of the mountain over southeast of Taiwan. This terrain-induced vortex interacts with Typhoon Haitang in a way similar to the binary vortex interaction. The two vortex centers rotate around their system center, which causes looping of Typhoon Haitang.  相似文献   

Theory and experimental study for sliding isolators with variable curvature     

Lyan‐Ywan Lu  Shih‐Wei Yeh 《地震工程与结构动力学》2011,40(14):1609-1627

Because a conventional isolation system with constant isolation frequency is usually a long‐period dynamic system, its seismic response is likely to be amplified in earthquakes with strong long‐period wave components, such as near‐fault ground motions. Seismic isolators with variable mechanical properties may provide a promising solution to alleviate this problem. To this end, in this work sliding isolators with variable curvature (SIVC) were studied experimentally. An SIVC isolator is similar to a friction pendulum system (FPS) isolator, except that its sliding surface has variable curvature rather being spherical. As a result, the SIVC's isolation stiffness that is proportional to the curvature becomes a function of the isolator displacement. By appropriately designing the geometry of the sliding surface, the SIVC is able to possess favorable hysteretic behavior. In order to prove the applicability of the SIVC concept, several prototype SIVC isolators, whose sliding surfaces are defined by a sixth‐order polynomial function, were fabricated and tested in this study. A cyclic element test on the prototype SIVC isolators and a shaking table test on an SIVC isolated steel frame were all conducted. The results of both tests have verified that the prototype SIVC isolators do indeed have the hysteretic property of variable stiffness as prescribed by the derived formulas in this study. Moreover, it is also demonstrated that the proposed SIVC is able to effectively reduce the isolator drift in a near‐fault earthquake with strong long‐period components, as compared with that of an FPS system with the same friction coefficient. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

GPS Height and Gravity Variations Due to Ocean Tidal Loading Around Taiwan     

Ta-Kang Yeh  Cheinway Hwang  Guochang Xu 《Surveys in Geophysics》2009,30(1):51-51

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Optimization and capacity expansion of a water distribution system     

Nien-Sheng Hsu  Wei-Chen Cheng  Wen-Ming Cheng  Chih-Chiang Wei  William W.-G. Yeh 《Advances in water resources》2008

This paper develops an iterative procedure for capacity expansion studies for water distribution systems. We propose a methodology to analyze an existing water distribution system and identify the potential bottlenecks in the system. Based on the results, capacity expansion alternatives are proposed and evaluated for improving the efficiency of water supply. The methodology includes a network flow based optimization model, four evaluation indices, and a series of evaluation steps. We first use a directed graph to configure the water distribution system into a network. The network flow based model optimizes the water distribution in the system so that different expansion alternatives can be evaluated on a comparable basis. This model lends itself to linear programming (LP) and can be easily solved by a standard LP code. The results from the evaluation tool help to identify the bottlenecks in the water distribution system and provide capacity expansion alternatives. A useful complementary tool for decision making is composed of a series of evaluation steps with the bottleneck findings, capacity expansion alternatives, and the evaluation of results. We apply the proposed methodology to the Tou-Qian River Basin, located in the northern region of Taiwan, to demonstrate its applicability in optimization and capacity expansion studies.  相似文献   

Rainfall network design using kriging and entropy   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Yen‐Chang Chen  Chiang Wei  Hui‐Chung Yeh 《水文研究》2008,22(3):340-346

The spatial distribution of rainfall is related to meteorological and topographical factors. An understanding of the weather and topography is required to select the locations of the rain gauge stations in the catchment to obtain the optimum information. In theory, a well‐designed rainfall network can accurately represent and provide the needed information of rainfall in the catchment. However, the available rainfall data are rarely adequate in the mountainous area of Taiwan. In order to provide enough rainfall data to assure the success of water projects, the rainfall network based on the existing rain gauge stations has to be redesigned. A method composed of kriging and entropy that can determine the optimum number and spatial distribution of rain gauge stations in catchments is proposed. Kriging as an interpolator, which performs linear averaging to reconstruct the rainfall over the catchment on the basis of the observed rainfall, is used to compute the spatial variations of rainfall. Thus, the rainfall data at the locations of the candidate rain gauge stations can be reconstructed. The information entropy reveals the rainfall information of the each rain gauge station in the catchment. By calculating the joint entropy and the transmitted information, the candidate rain gauge stations are prioritized. In addition, the saturation of rainfall information can be used to add or remove the rain gauge stations. Thus, the optimum spatial distribution and the minimum number of rain gauge stations in the network can be determined. The catchment of the Shimen Reservoir in Taiwan is used to illustrate the method. The result shows that only seven rain gauge stations are needed to provide the necessary information. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Dam overtopping risk assessment considering inspection program   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Jan-Tai Kuo  Yung-Chia Hsu  Yeou-Koung Tung  Keh-Chia Yeh  Jian-De Wu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(3):303-313

Safety inspection of large dams in Taiwan is conducted every 5 years. The practice does not take into consideration uncertainty of dam conditions. The goal of this study is to determine the optimal dam inspection interval under the consideration of overtopping risk incorporating uncertainty gate availability. In earlier studies, assessment of overtopping risk only considered the uncertainties in reservoir properties and natural randomness of hydrologic events without giving much thought to the availability of spillway gates. As a result, the overtopping risk could be underestimated. In this study, an innovative concept is proposed to evaluate dam overtopping by taking into account spillway gate availability. The framework consists of three parts: (1) evaluation of conditional overtopping risk for different numbers of malfunctioning spillway gates; (2) evaluation of spillway gate availability; and (3) dam inspection scheduling. Furthermore, considerations are given to overtopping risk, inspection cost, and dam break cost for determining the optimal inspection schedule. The methodology is applied to the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan and to evaluate its time-dependent overtopping risk. Results show that overtopping risk considering the availability of the spillway gates is higher than the one without considering the availability of the spillway gates.  相似文献   

Analysis of tracer tomography using temporal moments of tracer breakthrough curves     

Junfeng Zhu  Xing Cai  Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh 《Advances in water resources》2009

Hydraulic/partitioning tracer tomography (HPTT) was recently developed by Yeh and Zhu [Yeh T-CJ, Zhu J. Hydraulic/partitioning tracer tomography for characterization of dense nonaqueous phase liquid source zones, Water Resour Res 2007;43:W06435. doi:10.1029/2006WR004877.] for estimating spatial distribution of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) in the subsurface. Since discrete tracer concentration data are directly utilized for the estimation of DNAPLs, this approach solves the hyperbolic convection–dispersion equation. Solution to the convection–dispersion equation however demands fine temporal and spatial discretization, resulting in high computational cost for an HPTT analysis. In this work, we use temporal moments of tracer breakthrough curves instead of discrete concentration data to estimate DNAPL distribution. This approach solves time independent partial differential equations of the temporal moments, and therefore avoids solving the convection–dispersion equation using a time marching scheme, resulting in a dramatic reduction of computational cost. To reduce numerical oscillations associated with convection dominated transport problems such as in inter-well tracer tests, the approach uses a finite element solver adopting the streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin method to calculate moments and sensitivities. We test the temporal moment approach through numerical simulations. Comparing the computational costs between utilizing moments and discrete concentrations, we find that temporal moments significantly reduce the computation time. We also find that tracer moment data collected through a tomographic survey alone are able to yield reasonable estimates of hydraulic conductivity, as indicated by a correlation of 0.588 between estimated and true hydraulic conductivity fields in the synthetic case study.  相似文献