Introduction to Excursion A2     

《《幕》》2007,30(4):295-296

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Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships     

Cheng-Wu CHEN  Hsien-Chueh Peter YANG  Chen-Yuan CHEN  Alex Kung-Hsiung CHANG  Tsung-Hao CHEN   《中国海洋工程》2008,22(1):43-56

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Hsien-Chueh Peter YANG  Alex Kung-Hsiung CHANG  Tsung-Hao CHEN 《中国海洋工程》2008,22(1)

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.  相似文献   

一种两步抗差估计的设计及其解算          下载免费PDF全文

张冬林  朱涛  戚万权  杨飞飞 《海洋测绘》2008,28(6):21-24

抗差估计的关键是选择适当的权函数和合理的调制因子，针对这两个重要问题，在研究当前调制因子取值方法的基础之上，提出了可动性调制因子这一新概念，并基于可动性调制因子、IGG方案权函数，设计了两步抗差估计。两步抗差估计解决了抗差估计中传统的调制因子、方差因子、初值三者取值时存在的一系列问题，尤其当三者取值不能协调配制时出现的秩亏问题，从而使抗差估计方法更具有实际意义和广泛意义。  相似文献   

华东地区具有短期预测意义的特殊显著性地震事件识别          下载免费PDF全文

蒋海昆  周焕鹏  侯海峰  戴磊  郑建常 《地球物理学进展》2005,20(3):624-629

依据华东地区中强地震前的地震活动特点,初步提出“特殊显著性地震事件”SPE的概念及其可能的识别方法.具有前兆指示意义的SPE可划分为三类,三类SPE分别表达了主震前中小地震与主震之间的时空位置关系.I类SPE距主震时、空距离均较近,在一定程度上与“直接前震”具有相似之处;II类SPE距主震时间较近、而空间距离可能较远,但与主震之间有一定的构造联系,具有时间上的“信号地震”的意义.Ⅲ类必须首先通过地震活动性方法对可能的SPE进行筛选,之后通过比较其与之前在同一位置发生的一系列中小地震的地震波参数之间的差异,在一定程度上进一步确认其短期预测意义.华东6次中强地震震例的研究结果表明,当可能的SPE的单台波速比小于此前该区域长时期的均值、归一化尾波持续时间大于此前该区域长时期的均值以及振幅衰减系数与此前该区域长时期均值之差大于长时期均值的30％时,可进一步认定其短期前兆意义.  相似文献   

塔河油田6~7区孔洞型碳酸盐岩储层建模   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈培元  杨辉廷  刘学利  钟学彬  杨新涛 《地质论评》2014,60(4):884-892

塔河油田6~7区奥陶系碳酸盐岩储层受岩溶作用影响,非均质性极强。因此,准确地刻画储集体的形态及三维空间展布对油气田的勘探开发至关重要。在对研究区奥陶系缝洞型碳酸盐岩储层纵向发育规律的认识的基础上,首次提出采用"多点统计学"进行储集相建模的基本思路。根据地震属性与孔洞型储层之间的对应关系优选"特征属性",建立基于"特征属性"的"训练图像";以钻井、地震识别以及测井解释成果作为硬数据,地震波阻抗的溶洞发育概率体作为软数据,进行"储集相"模拟。结果表明:该方法不仅实现了对孔洞型储集体形态的模拟,而且再现了孔洞型储集体的复杂结构及空间分布,同时模拟结果与该类型储集体的纵向发育规律相符。  相似文献   

吹填砂场地强夯振动特性研究及安全评估          下载免费PDF全文

张朋辉  韩赛超  张小东  葛晓菲 《探矿工程》2014,41(8):58-61

针对曹妃甸工业园区液化天然气储罐地基加固过程中所引起的地面振动进行了深入研究,通过对现场强夯振动观测记录进行统计分析、频域分析以及规律拟合,给出了吹填砂场地上强夯所引起的地面振动衰减规律、振幅（振速）随夯击次数的变化规律以及强夯振动的主频变化规律,并就场地周围已存的海堤工程和天然气储罐工程进行了振动安全评估,为现场强夯施工参数的选取提供了理论支撑,同时也弥补了国内对于类似场地振动特性研究不足的局面。  相似文献   

井中磁测资料预处理与弱信号识别     

王赛昕  刘天佑  欧洋 《物探与化探》2014,(1):90-95

井中磁测仪器距离场源近,磁测资料受到钻孔打穿磁性体产生的内磁场影响,往往存在强干扰压制有用信号,因此研究井中磁测资料预处理与弱信号识别方法具有重要意义。笔者将地面重磁资料边界识别中倾斜角总水平导数和解析信号振幅方法改进后应用于井中磁测资料预处理中,提出倾斜角垂向导数和均值归一解析信号振幅方法。通过模型分析证明了两种方法都可识别强弱不同的井旁磁性体位置,反映边界信息,且给出了计算均值归一解析信号振幅过程中窗口选择的依据。将两种方法应用于江苏某工区ZK002孔磁测资料预处理中,得出倾斜角垂向导数方法应用于实测资料中会放大干扰,而均值归一解析信号振幅方法增强了该钻孔弱异常信息,且压制了干扰信号,处理结果与磁化率测井和钻孔资料相对应。  相似文献   

基于解析信号振幅识别磁源体边界的分析解释方法          下载免费PDF全文

吴文贤  王永华  吴振波  杨剑  焦彦杰  邓珂 《沉积与特提斯地质》2014,(1):108-112

解析信号本质上是一种全通滤波器,由于其不受人为因素干扰,能够较好地反映原始信号包含的信息特征。该方法不仅是对非平稳信号进行分析的有效方法,也是检测信号局部特征的有力工具。本文通过对实信号的解析信号处理得到复信号,由该复信号的振幅,能清晰地刻画信号能量空间分布特征。模型试验表明,解析信号振幅方法减小了常规化极方法在勘探程度较低的地区引起假异常的问题,使地下磁性体与振幅中心位置对应。尤其在低纬度或地形切割较大的地区,该方法更具优势。将该方法应用于老挝爬立山铁矿区实测磁异常的分析,由此圈定了磁铁矿分布位置,并由区内56个钻孔证实该推断的可靠性。  相似文献   

The Amplitude of Mass Fluctuations and Mass Density of the Universe Constrained by Strong Gravitational Lensing     

Da-Ming ChenNational Astronomical Observatories  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing  cdm@bao.ac.cn 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2004,4(2):118-124

We investigate the linear amplitude of mass fluctuations in the universe, σ8, and the present mass density parameter of the Universe, Ωm, from statistical strong gravitational lensing. We use the two population model of lens halos with fixed cooling mass scale Mc = 3×1013h-1M⊙ to match the observed lensing probabilities, and leave σ8 orΩm as a free parameter to be constrained by the data. Another varying parameter, the equation of state of dark energy ω, and its typical values of -1, -2/3, -1/2 and -1/3 are investigated. We find that σ8 is degenerate with Ωm in a way similar to that suggested by present day cluster abundance as well as cosmic shear lensing measurements: σ8Ω0.6m≈0.33. However, both σ8≤0.7 and Ωm≤0.2 can be safely ruled out, the best fit is when σ8 = 1.0, Ωm = 0.3 and ω= - 1. This result is different from that obtained by Bahcall & Bode, who gave σ8 = 0.98±0.1 and Ωm = 0.17 ±0.05. For σ8 = 1.0, the higher value ofΩm = 0.35 requires ω = -2/3 and Ωm = 0.40 require  相似文献