Comparing different models of aftershock rate decay: The role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after main shock   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Barbara Lolli  Paolo Gasperini   《Tectonophysics》2006,423(1-4):43

We evaluated the efficiency of various models in describing the time decay of aftershock rate of 47 simple sequences occurred in California (37) from 1933 to 2004 and in Italy (10) from 1976 to 2004. We compared the models by the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC_c) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), both based on the log-likelihood function and also including a penalty term that takes into account the number of independent observations and of free parameters of each model. These criteria follow two different approaches (probabilistic and Bayesian respectively) well covering the wide spectra of current views on model comparison. To evaluate the role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock, we compared the performance of different models by varying the starting time T_s and the minimum magnitude threshold M_min for each sequence. We found that Omori-type models including parameter c are preferable to those not including it, only for short T_s and low M_min while the latters generally perform better than the formers for T_s longer than a few hours and M_min larger than the main shock magnitude M_m minus 3 units. For T_s > 1 day or M_min > M_m − 2.5, only about 15% of the sequences still give a preference to models including c. This clearly indicates that a value of parameter c different from zero does not represent a general property of aftershock sequences in California and Italy but it is very likely induced in most cases by catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock. We also considered other models of aftershock decay proposed in the literature: the Stretched Exponential Law in two forms (including and not including a time shift) and the band Limited Power Law (LPL). We found that such models perform worse than the Modified Omori Model (MOM) and other Omori-type models for the large majority of sequences, although for LPL, the relatively short duration of the analyzed sequences (one year) might also contribute to its poor performance. Our analysis demonstrates that the MOM with c kept fixed to 0 represent the better choice for the modeling (and the forecasting) of simple sequence behavior in California and Italy.  相似文献   

Propagation of orographic barriers along an active range front: insights from sandstone petrography and detrital apatite fission-track thermochronology in the intramontane Angastaco basin, NW Argentina     

Isabelle Coutand †  Barbara Carrapa†  Anke Deeken‡  Axel K. Schmitt§  Edward R. Sobel†  Manfred R. Strecker† 《Basin Research》2006,18(1):1-26

The arid Puna plateau of the southern Central Andes is characterized by Cenozoic distributed shortening forming intramontane basins that are disconnected from the humid foreland because of the defeat of orogen‐traversing channels. Thick Tertiary and Quaternary sedimentary fills in Puna basins have reduced topographic contrasts between the compressional basins and ranges, leading to a typical low‐relief plateau morphology. Structurally identical basins that are still externally drained straddle the eastern border of the Puna and document the eastward propagation of orographic barriers and ensuing aridification. One of them, the Angastaco basin, is transitional between the highly compartmentalized Puna highlands and the undeformed Andean foreland. Sandstone petrography, structural and stratigraphic analysis, combined with detrital apatite fission‐track thermochronology from a ～6200‐m‐thick Miocene to Pliocene stratigraphic section in the Angastaco basin, document the late Eocene to late Pliocene exhumation history of source regions along the eastern border of the Puna (Eastern Cordillera (EC)) as well as the construction of orographic barriers along the southeastern flank of the Central Andes. Onset of exhumation of a source in the EC in late Eocene time as well as a rapid exhumation of the Sierra de Luracatao (in the EC) at about 20 Ma are recorded in the detrital sediments of the Angastaco basin. Sediment accumulation in the basin began ～15 Ma, a time at which the EC had already built sufficient topography to prevent Puna sourced detritus from reaching the basin. After ～13 Ma, shortening shifted eastward, exhuming ranges that preserve an apatite fission‐track partial annealing zone recording cooling during the late Cretaceous rifting event. Facies changes and fossil content suggest that after 9 Ma, the EC constituted an effective orographic barrier that prevented moisture penetration into the plateau. Between 3.4 and 2.4 Ma, another orographic barrier was uplifted to the east, leading to further aridification and pronounced precipitation gradients along the mountain front. This study emphasizes the important role of tectonics in the evolution of climate in this part of the Andes.  相似文献   

Summaries of presentations during the sixth Workshop of the International Association of Phytoplankton Ecology and Taxonomy,Mondsee, Austria, 15–25 September 1986     

H. R. Bürgi  Gerhild Deisinger  M. Dokulil  Barbara Hickel  Utsa Pollingher  Hedy Kling  Pertti Eloranta  Eugen Rott  Peter Pfister  Maria Moustaka  Ivan S. Heaney  Eugen Rott  A. E. Bailey-Watts  Jorgen Kristiansen  Asbjorn Skogstad 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1987,49(3):375-392

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Fluoride in the Ground Water of Northeastern Ohio     

Robert G. Corbett  Barbara M. Manner 《Ground water》1984,22(1):13-17

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Evidence for the influence of fCH 4 on the crystallinity of disseminated carbon in greenschist facies rocks,Rhode Island,USA     

Robert P. Wintsch  Anne F. O'Connell  Barbara L. Ransom  Mark J. Wiechmann 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1981,77(3):207-213

Disseminated carbon has been extracted from 19 samples of arkosic rocks from the chlorite, biotite and garnet zones in the Narragansett basin, and analysed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). XRD of these samples yields only the (002) peak which may be as much as four times wider than the silicon internal standard peak and is always skewed to low angles 2θ. All (002) peaks were digitized and the four moments calculated. The results suggest that width at half-height (W_1/2) provides a poorer estimate of peak shape than coefficients of skewness and kurtosis. The positive correlation of these coefficients with grain size determined by SEM in the range of 0.1–100 μm suggest a direct relationship between peak shape and grain size. No variable measured in this study correlates with metamorphic grade. However, W_1/2, skewness and kurtosis of the (002) diffraction peak of the carbonaceous material in the biotite and garnet zones correlates inversely with modal carbon. This suggests that the volatilization reaction: C+2H₂=CH₄ may be an important step in the mechanism of graphitization. Variable fugacities of H₂ and CH₄ and/or variable permeabilities may be responsible for the non-uniform development of graphite crystallinity in the greenschist facies rocks in Rhode Island.  相似文献   

Citation for Donald J. Zeigler 2017 Recipient of the George J Miller Award for Distinguished Service     

Barbara Hildebrant 《The Journal of geography》2018,117(1):1-2

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Climate Change driven evolution of hazards to Europe’s transport infrastructure throughout the twenty-first century     

Christoph?MatullaEmail author  Brigitta?Hollósi  Konrad?Andre  Julia?Gringinger  Barbara?Chimani  Joachim?Namyslo  Tobias?Fuchs  Markus?Auerbach  Carina?Herrmann  Brigitte?Sladek  Heimo?Berghold  Roland?Gschier  Eva?Eichinger-Vill 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,131(1-2):227-243

Air circulation due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect can influence the dispersion of air pollutants in a metropolis. This study focusses on the influence of the UHI effect on particulate matter (PM; including PM_2.5 and PM_2.5–10) between May and September 2010–2012 in the Taipei basin. Meteorological and PM data were obtained from the sites, owned by the governmental authorities. The analysis was carried out using t test, relative indices (RIs), Pearson product–moment correlation and stepwise regression. The results show that the RI values for PM were the highest at moderate UHI intensity (MUI; 2 °C ≤ UHI < 4 °C) rather than at strong UHI intensity (SUI; 4 °C ≤ UHI) during the peak time for anthropogenic emissions (20:00 LST). Neither the accumulation of PM nor the surface convergence occurred in the hot centre, as shown by the case study. At MUI, more than 89 % of the synoptic weather patterns showed that the weather was clear and hot or that the atmosphere was stable. The variation in PM was associated with horizontal and vertical air dispersion. Poor horizontal air dispersion, with subsidence, caused an increase in PM at MUI. However, the updraft motion diluted the PM at SUI. The stepwise regression models show that the cloud index and surface air pressure determined the variation in PM_2.5–10, while cloud index, wind speed and mixing height influenced the variation in PM_2.5. In conclusion, a direct relationship between UHI effect and PM was not obvious.  相似文献   

New evidences of hydrothermal fluids circulation at the Devonian Kess Kess mounds,Hamar Laghdad (eastern Anti‐Atlas,Morocco)     

Fulvio Franchi  Barbara Cavalazzi  Catherine Pierre  Roberto Barbieri 《Geological Journal》2015,50(5):634-650

New evidences based on a combination of field and laboratory investigations reinforce the hypotheses that the circulation of warm fluids has remarkably contributed to the origin and development of the Devonian Kess Kess mounds of the Hamar Laghdad Ridge (eastern Anti‐Atlas, Morocco). The limestones of the Hamar Laghdad Ridge were deposited above a structural high generated by calc‐alkaline volcanic activity that has probably fuelled the circulation of warm fluids throughout the overlying carbonate units. The geological and palaeontological attributes described throughout the succession of the Hamar Laghdad Ridge (from the Lochkovian to Frasnian intervals) are interpreted as the result of hydrothermal processes related to a volcanic system. In particular, these attributes seem consistent with a chemo‐physical environment fuelled by the circulation of warm and late magmatic fluids. These attributes include a very low oxygen stable isotope signature (δ¹⁸O ~ −10‰) for carbonates. Evidences for a late magmatic fluid circulation consist of volcanic glass and pyroclasts replacement with hydrothermal minerals such as quartz, anatase and clinochlore. Fluids circulating through veins and pores into sediments, and venting to the seafloor, probably induced the formation of cavities where monospecific trilobite communities were detected. The partially silicified trilobite remains are associated with traces of goethite. This iron‐bearing oxide mineral is also present in the upper part of the Hamar Laghdad Ridge. All these attributes are here interpreted as possible evidences for a low‐temperature hydrothermal venting system active during the Lochkovian–Frasnian time span. This study combines an updated revision with new petrographic, geological and geochemical results aimed at providing an overall framework on the origin and early diagenesis of the Devonian succession of Hamar Laghdad. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Uncertainty in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) deployment projections: a cross-model comparison exercise     

Barbara Sophia Koelbl  Machteld A. van den Broek  André P. C. Faaij  Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):461-476

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can be a valuable CO₂ mitigation option, but what role CCS will play in the future is uncertain. In this paper we analyze the results of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) taking part in the 27th round of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) with respect to the role of CCS in long term mitigation scenarios. Specifically we look into the use of CCS as a function of time, mitigation targets, availability of renewables and its use with different fuels. Furthermore, we explore the possibility to relate model results to general and CCS specific model assumptions. The results show a wide range of cumulative capture in the 2010–2100 period (600–3050 GtCO₂), but the fact that no model projects less than 600 GtCO₂ indicates that CCS is considered to be important by all these models. Interestingly, CCS storage rates are often projected to be still increasing in the second half of this century. Depending on the scenario, at least six out of eight, up to all models show higher storage rates in 2100 than in 2050. CCS shares in cumulative primary energy use are in most models increasing with the stringency of the target or under conservative availability of renewables. The strong variations of CCS deployment projection rates could not be related to the reported differences in the assumptions of the models by means of a cross-model comparison in this sample.  相似文献   

The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2 °C—insights from integrated assessment modelling     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Sebastiaan Deetman  Jasper van Vliet  Maarten van den Berg  Bas J. van Ruijven  Barbara Koelbl 《Climatic change》2013,118(1):15-27

Limiting climate change to 2 °C with a high probability requires reducing cumulative emissions to about 1600 GtCO₂ over the 2000–2100 period. This requires unprecedented rates of decarbonization even in the short-run. The availability of the option of net negative emissions, such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or reforestation/afforestation, allows to delay some of these emission reductions. In the paper, we assess the demand and potential for negative emissions in particular from BECCS. Both stylized calculations and model runs show that without the possibility of negative emissions, pathways meeting the 2 °C target with high probability need almost immediate emission reductions or simply become infeasible. The potential for negative emissions is uncertain. We show that negative emissions from BECCS are probably limited to around 0 to 10 GtCO₂/year in 2050 and 0 to 20 GtCO₂/year in 2100. Estimates on the potential of afforestation options are in the order of 0–4 GtCO₂/year. Given the importance and the uncertainty concerning BECCS, we stress the importance of near-term assessments of its availability as today’s decisions has important consequences for climate change mitigation in the long run.  相似文献