Climate change is one of the main factors that affect runoff changes. In the upstream of Minjiang River, the temperature increased significantly in the last 50 years, while the precipitation decreased on the contrary. In order to analyze the effect of climate change on site runoff, watershed runoff depth and evaporation, nine climate scenarios are assumed based on rainfall and temperature indicators. A SWAT model of Minjiang River is constructed, and runoff simulation is carried out with the nine scenarios. The results show that if precipitation increases or decreases 20 %, the change rate of runoff depth will increase or decrease 28–32 %; if temperature increases or decreases 2 °C, the change rate of runoff depth will decrease or increase 1–6 %; if temperature increases or decreases 2 °C, the change rate of the potential evaporation will increase or decrease 5–16 %, and the actual evaporation rate of variation will increase or decrease 1–6 %. Overall, precipitation variation has greater effect on simulated runoff than temperature variation dose. In addition, temperature variation has more obvious effect on the runoff simulation results in dry years than in wet years. The actual evaporation of watershed depends on evaporation capacity and precipitation and increases with the increasing of the potential evaporation and precipitation. The study also shows that the climate change scenarios analysis technology, combined with SWAT hydrological model, can effectively simulate the effect of climate change on runoff.
三维加速度点质量模型法为反演陆地水储量变化提供了新的途径,采用三维加速度点质量模型法计算了中国华北地区2003—2014年的水储量变化。为了检验反演结果,采用球谐系数法以及德克萨斯大学空间研究中心(Center for Space Research,University of Texas at Austin,CSR)发布的RL06 Mascon模型进行对比分析。研究结果表明,两种方法反演结果均反映出华北地区陆地水储量长期处于亏损趋势,但不同方法计算的亏损速度有一定的差别,三维加速度点质量模型法采用CSR提供的RL06数据反演的华北地区陆地水储量亏损速度为-3.09,而球谐系数法反演结果为-2.60;三维加速度点质量模型法特征点的反演结果与Mascon法相关系数更高,而球谐系数法与三维加速度点质量模型法结果之间的差异主要是由条带噪声约束平滑策略不一致导致的。 相似文献