New evidence for an extended occupation of the Provo shoreline and implications for regional climate change, Pleistocene Lake Bonneville, Utah, USA     

Holly S. Godsey  Donald R. Currey  Marjorie A. Chan 《Quaternary Research》2005,63(2):212-223

Lake Bonneville was a climatically sensitive, closed-basin lake that occupied the eastern Great Basin during the late Pleistocene. Ongoing efforts to refine the record of lake level history are important for deciphering climate conditions in the Bonneville basin and for facilitating correlations with regional and global records of climate change. Radiocarbon data from this and other studies suggest that the lake oscillated at or near the Provo level much longer than depicted by current models of lake level change. Radiocarbon data also suggest that the lake dropped from threshold control much more rapidly than previously supposed. These revisions to the Lake Bonneville hydrograph, coupled with independent evidence of climate change from vegetation and glacial records, have important implications for conditions in the Bonneville basin and during the Pleistocene to Holocene transition.  相似文献   

Covering Wildfires: Media Emphasis and Silence after the Carlton and Okanogan Complex Wildfires     

Alissa Cordner  Eliana Schwartz 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(5):489-507

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Towards a moral socio-environmental economy: A reconsideration of values     

《Geoforum》2015

In this intervention article I contribute to discussions of moral economy by arguing that scholars should reconsider the nature of value. Neoliberalism considers only exchange value. As a consequence neoliberal policies try to manage problems such as climate change with economic systems and instruments that are mis-calibrated to the material realities they are meant to represent. Value has spatial and temporal characteristics. Recognizing the spatial and temporal dynamics of value leads to new means of resource valuation, such as extending the time-frame of instruments and changing the nature of privatization. In conclusion, I argue for the need for new theories of use value.  相似文献   

Last interglacial vegetation and climate history from the Portuguese coast          下载免费PDF全文

T. A. MINCKLEY  J. A. HAWS  M. M. BENEDETTI  S. C. BREWER  S. L. FORMAN 《第四纪科学杂志》2015,30(1):59-69

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A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels     

Ivan D. Haigh  Robert Nicholls  Neil Wells 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.  相似文献   

The impact of biofuel-induced food-price inflation on dietary energy demand and dietary greenhouse gas emissions     

Noah Scovronick  Paul Wilkinson 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1587-1593

Dramatic increases in liquid biofuel production have led to concerns about associated impacts on food prices, with many modeling studies showing significant biofuel-related price inflation. In turn, by changing patterns of food demand, biofuel production may indirectly influence greenhouse gas emissions. We estimated changes to dietary energy (calorie) demand and greenhouse gas emissions embodied in average diets under different biofuel-related food-price scenarios for Brazil, China and the United States, using food-price projections and food-price elasticities. Average energy demand decreased in all countries, from about 40 kcal per person per day in Brazil under a moderate price inflation scenario – a reduction of 1% relative to the (2009) reference scenario – to nearly 300 per day in the United States with high price inflation – almost 8% of reference levels. However, emissions per calorie increased slightly in all three countries. In terms of total greenhouse gas emissions, the results are suggestive of overall reductions only in the United States, where average reductions ranged from about 40 to 110 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per person per year. In China, the direction of impact is unclear, but the net change is likely to be small. Brazilian results were sensitive to parameter values and the direction and magnitude of impact is therefore uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, even small changes (positive or negative) in individual dietary emissions can produce large changes at the population level, arguing for the inclusion of the dietary pathway in greenhouse gas accounting of liquid biofuels.  相似文献   

地史上巨量蒸发岩省的成因及其地质意义          下载免费PDF全文

李江海  马丽亚  王洪浩  许丽 《地质科学》2016,(2):619-632

全球蒸发岩从震旦纪到新近纪均有发育, 其最发育时期为震旦纪-寒武纪、二叠纪-三叠纪以及侏罗纪-白垩纪, 且具有幕式分布特点.它们在一定区域(低纬区)常大规模集中发育, 跨越不同的沉积盆地类型, 面积和厚度巨大, 时代跨度较短且连续, 笔者称之为巨量蒸发岩省.本文基于全球蒸发岩层系古板块再造、沉积岩相恢复、地层柱状对比、盆地构造分析等方法, 对巨量蒸发岩省的发育、分布、成因及其地质意义进行了探讨.巨量蒸发岩省形成、分布与地史中的造山带演化、超大陆的聚合与裂解、干旱气候带(南北纬30°之间)、海平面变化等因素有着密切联系; 其主要形成于干旱环境下相对封闭、靠海水潜流补给的台地和盆地中; 所处的构造单元主要为泛大陆板块内部狭长的裂谷带、特提斯造山带的残余洋盆、海-陆过渡带、陆表海或孤立板块的台地中心.  相似文献   

气候模式中云的垂直重叠及其辐射传输问题研究进展          下载免费PDF全文

李林涛 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2016,74(1):103-113

概述了全球气候模式中云的垂直重叠的处理方法及其辐射物理过程的最新研究进展。从云垂直重叠模型的构造、模型在气候模式中的实现方式,得到与观测一致的云重叠结构所采用的数据和方法、重叠云的辐射传输等方面,给出了针对这一国际研究难点问题的最新研究进展。关于气候模式中云的垂直重叠问题的研究至今已取得了许多成果,表现在:重叠模型上有了更为科学的描述形式(如指数衰减重叠);重叠云的辐射传输也有了更快速的处理方法(如蒙特卡洛独立柱近似)并被广泛应用;连续的三维云遥感观测(如CloudSat/CALIPSO)和云分辨尺度的三维云模式的发展为在气候模式中精确描述云的垂直结构提供了丰富的观测资料和模式数据。但是,气候模式中现有的云重叠结构处理及其辐射传输方法还远不够完善,仍然存在很多没有解决的问题需要在未来进行探索。  相似文献   

卫星臭氧资料的发展与应用     

刘寅  邹晓蕾 《气象学报》2016,74(1):1-17

随着卫星探测技术的进步、天气学和气候学理论的不断完善,以及高性能计算机广泛应用,卫星臭氧资料的种类得到极大丰富并被应用到多个研究领域中,取得了一系列重要成果。文中介绍了主要星载臭氧探测仪的发展概况,回顾了卫星臭氧资料在气象领域的应用研究成果,主要包括卫星臭氧资料在气旋或低压过程中、全球或区域臭氧的气候分布及变化特征、高原臭氧分布及变化特点、数值应用等方面的应用研究,并展望了卫星臭氧资料研究的未来发展趋势。   相似文献   

Public views on economic growth,the environment and prosperity: Results of a questionnaire survey     

《Global Environmental Change》2016

The long-standing academic and public debate on economic growth, prosperity and environmental sustainability has recently gained new momentum. It lacks, however, a broad perspective on public opinion. Prior opinion surveys typically offered a simple dichotomous choice between growth and environmental protection. This study examines public beliefs and attitudes about a wider range of aspects of the growth debate. To this end, we conducted an online questionnaire survey including a country-wide, representative sample of 1008 Spanish citizens. Using factor analysis, we identify six distinct dimensions of public attitudes, referred to as: prosperity with growth; environmental limits to growth; general optimism; wrong priority; overrated GDP; and governmental control. We further analyze several specific questions associated with the growth debate, such as those concerning the desired GDP growth rate, the preferred growth-environment position, and beliefs about, as well as reasons for, a possible end or continuation of growth. We find that most respondents favor GDP growth rates of more than 3%. A majority views growth and environmental sustainability as compatible (green growth), while about one-third prefers either ignoring growth as a policy aim (agrowth), or stopping it altogether (degrowth). Only very few people want growth unconditionally (growth-at-all-costs). About one-third of the respondents believe that growth may be never-ending. We examine how support for or disagreement with different statements on growth are related to each other, as well as how they are influenced by socio-demographic, knowledge and ideology/values variables. Overall, our findings can inform public debates about the growth paradigm and its potential alternatives by providing a more nuanced understanding of public opinion. We make suggestions for future research, including modifying poll questions on growth and environment through offering a more diverse set of response options.  相似文献