黄河源区蒸散发量时空变化趋势及突变分析   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

刘蓉  文军  王欣 《气候与环境研究》2016,21(5):503-511

蒸散发量是流域水文过程的关键因子。由于缺乏区域面上实际蒸散发量的长期观测,很难得到长时间序列的蒸散发时空变化趋势。因此,本研究首先利用架设在黄河源若尔盖地区的涡动相关系统观测的2010年全年的蒸散发资料进行分析,对欧洲中心提供的ERA-interim和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)提供的地表变量再分析数据集进行了局地适用性评估,并依据再分析蒸散数据集,基于统计学方法分析了1979~2014年黄河源区蒸散发量的时空分布及变化特征。结果表明:(1)ERA-interim蒸散发再分析资料在黄河源区适用性较好,均方根误差为0.63,NCEP蒸散发再分析资料在4~7月、10~12月模拟值偏高,均方根误差为0.81。(2)进而利用ERA-interim蒸散发再分析资料,基于Mann Kendall方法及Sen斜率(Sen’s slope estimator)检验法,分析了黄河源区蒸散发量在1979~2014年期间的变化趋势。黄河源区蒸散发量总体上呈现北高南低的年变化趋势,北部兴海—共和—贵德地区增加最为迅速,年变化率在1.5~2.5 mm/a,西南部曲麻莱—治多—玉树地区减少最为明显,变化率为-1.0~-0.5 mm/a,东南部玛沁—玛曲—久治地区蒸散发量的变化在0.5~1.0 mm/a。(3)利用滑动t检验和SQMK(Sequential Mann Kendall)方法检测出发生突变的年份集中在20世纪80年代。  相似文献   

Sediment transport and beach morphodynamics induced by free long waves,bound long waves and wave groups   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

T.E. Baldock  P. ManoonvoravongKim Son Pham 《Coastal Engineering》2010

New laboratory data are presented on the influence of free long waves, bound long waves and wave groups on sediment transport in the surf and swash zones. As a result of the very significant difficulties in isolating and identifying the morphodynamic influences of long waves and wave groups in field conditions, a laboratory study was designed specifically to enable measurements of sediment transport that resolve these influences. The evolution of model sand beaches, each with the same initial plane slope, was measured for a range of wave conditions, firstly using monochromatic short waves. Subsequently, the monochromatic conditions were perturbed with free long waves and then substituted with bichromatic wave groups with the same mean energy flux. The beach profile changes and net cross-shore transport rates were extracted and compared for the different wave conditions, with and without long waves and wave groups. The experiments include a range of wave conditions, e.g. high-energy, moderate-energy, low-energy waves, which induce both spilling and plunging breakers and different turbulent intensities, and the beaches evolve to form classical accretive, erosive, and intermediate beach states. The data clearly demonstrate that free long waves influence surf zone morphodynamics and promote increased onshore sediment transport during accretive conditions and decreased offshore transport under erosive conditions. In contrast, wave groups, which can generate both forced and free long waves, generally reduce onshore transport during accretive conditions and increase offshore transport under erosive conditions. The influence of the free long waves and wave groups is consistent with the concept of the relative fall velocity, H/w_sT, as a dominant parameter controlling net beach erosion or accretion. Free long waves tend to reduce H/w_sT, promoting accretion, while wave groups tend to increase the effective H/w_sT, promoting erosion.  相似文献   

Experimental study of long wave generation on sloping bottoms   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Guohai Dong  Xiaozhou Ma  Marc Perlin  Yuxiang Ma  Bo Yu  Gang Wang 《Coastal Engineering》2009

Low-frequency waves generated on steep (1:10) and mild (1:40) slopes by six series of bichromatic wave groups are studied experimentally. The shorelines for both slopes are replaced by horizontal reaches of small depth. This reduces the reflection of long waves near the shoreline significantly, which for the first time makes possible the explicit observation of outgoing breakpoint forced long waves. The breakpoint and released bound long wave mechanisms on the different slopes are compared. Generally, the breakpoint forced long waves dominate the low-frequency wave field on the steep slope, while the released bound long waves are found to be more significant on the mild slope. Two parameters indexing the effectiveness of the breakpoint mechanism are compared and the normalized slope tends to give more realistic results. Shoaling of bound long waves is analyzed and the shallow-water equilibrium limit ~ h^−5/2 exhibits a good prediction of the variation of the bound long waves on both slopes.  相似文献   

Finite source modelling of magmatic unrest in Socorro, New Mexico, and Long Valley, California     

Yuri Fialko  Mark Simons  Yakov Khazan 《Geophysical Journal International》2001,146(1):191-200

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长波辐射对大气变化的敏感性和在WRF模式中的应用检验   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8  

沈元芳  黄丽萍  徐国强  薛纪善 《气象学报》2004,62(2):213-227

用RRTM长波辐射 (LWR)参数化方案测试了LWR对大气变化的敏感性。结果表明 :高云对向外长波辐射(OLR)、30 0和 5 0 0hPa净LWR通量的减弱作用较中、低云大 ;低云对 85 0hPa和地表净LWR通量的减弱作用较中、高云大。在云层中 ,LWR冷却率受云影响最大 ;在云层下方 ,云对LWR的影响迅速减小 ;而在云层上方 ,冷却率几乎不受云的影响。当水汽含量减少或增加时 ,地表向下LWR受到相应减弱或增强 ,而净LWR则在一定程度上受到相应增强或减弱 ,并且越接近地面 ,受到水汽变化的影响就越大。O3 对LWR的影响相对云和水汽来说是比较小的。文中介绍了在WRF模式中应用RRTM方案预报LWR不同季节的 2个个例 ,给出了应用NCEP/AVN分析资料预报和验证中国范围 2d之内LWR通量的模拟结果。试验表明 ,OLR和 5 0 0hPa净LWR通量与高度形势场有较好的对应关系 ,而地表净LWR很大程度上还受到地形的影响。  相似文献   

Assessment of downstream trends in channel gradient, total and specific stream power: a GIS approach     

Ivars Reinfelds  Tim Cohen  Paul Batten  Gary Brierley 《Geomorphology》2004,60(3-4):403-416

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analyses of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) coupled with catchment area based discharge estimation techniques provide a relatively simple means of modelling contiguous downstream trends in channel gradient, total stream power, and in riverscapes conducive to regime analysis, also specific stream power. For a small, high relief, coastal catchment in SE Australia, good agreement was obtained between channel gradients derived from a 25 m cell-size DEM and field survey equivalents over distances of several kilometres, indicating that channel gradients derived from DEMs can have a reasonable degree of absolute as well as relative accuracy over multi-kilometre reach scales. Assessment of downstream rates of change in channel gradient and specific stream power across four river systems suggests that some of the river reaches most responsive to high magnitude floods occur in zones where these variables rapidly decrease downstream. Modelling of downstream trends in channel gradient, total and specific stream power from catchment-wide DEMs has potential to provide a framework with which to investigate conceptual and empirical models between channel gradient, stream power and the form and dynamics of river systems.  相似文献   

中国温度、降水的长期气候趋势及其影响因子分析   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13       下载免费PDF全文

王永光  龚振淞  许力  艾 《应用气象学报》2005,16(Z1):85-91

根据我国温度、降水长期变化规律的分析 ,已持续 1 0多年的暖周期还将持续一段时间 ;其中北方大部分地区气温可能处于下降趋势 ,南方大部分地区可能处于上升趋势 ;冬季温度将趋于下降 ,平均温度将比 2 0世纪 90年代降低 ;夏季温度将趋于上升 ,平均温度可能会比2 0世纪 90年代升高。长江流域将可能由多雨期向少雨期过渡 ,降水将比 2 0世纪 90年代减少 ;华北和黄河流域一带可能向多雨期过渡 ,降水将增加。  相似文献   

A VLBI Delay Model for Radio Sources at a Finite Distance     

M. Sekido  T. Fukushima 《Journal of Geodesy》2006,80(3):137-149

A relativistic delay model for Earth-based very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observation of sources at finite distances is derived. The model directly provides the VLBI delay in the scale of terrestrial time. The effect of the curved wave front is represented by using a pseudo source vector K = (R ₁ + R ₂)/(R ₁ + R ₂), and the variation of the baseline vector due to the difference of arrival time is taken into account up to the second-order by using Halley’s method. The precision of the new VLBI delay model is 1 ps for all radio sources above 100 km altitude from the Earth’s surface in Earth-based VLBI observation. Simple correction terms (parallax effect) are obtained, which can also adopt the consensus model (e.g. International Earth Rotation and Reference Frames Service conventions) to finite-distance radio source at R > 10 pc with the same precision. The new model may enable estimation of distance to the radio source directly with VLBI delay data.  相似文献   

Radon-222 in groundwater of the Long Valley caldera,California     

H. A. Wollenberg  A. R. Smith  D. F. Mosier  S. Flexser  M. Clark 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1984,122(2-4):327-339

In the Long Valley caldera, where seismicity has continued essentially uninterrupted since mid-1980 and uplift is documented, samples of water from hot, warm, and cold springs have been collected since September, 1982, and their²²²Rn concentrations analyzed. Concurrently, rocks encompassing the hydrologic systems feeding the springs were analyzed for their radioelement contents, because their uranium is the ultimate source of the²²²Rn in the water.The²²²Rn concentration in the springs varies inversely with their temperature and specific conductance. High concentrations (1500 to 2500 picocuries per liter) occur in dilute cold springs on the margins of the caldera, while low contents (12 to 25 pCi/l) occur in hot to boiling springs. Springwater radon concentrations also correlate slightly with the uranium content of the encompassing rocks.A continuous monitoring system was installed in August, 1983, at a spring issuing from basalt, to provide hourly records of radon concentration. A gamma detector is submerged in a natural pool, and we have observed that the radioactivity measured in this manner is due almost entirely to the²²²Rn concentration of the water. Initial operation shows diurnal and semidiurnal variations in the²²²Rn concentration of the springwater that are ascribed to earth tides, suggesting that those variations are responding to small changes in stress in the rocks encompassing the hydrologic system.  相似文献   

北极海冰变化的时间和空间型   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

汪代维  杨修群 《气象学报》2002,60(2):129-138

利用 4 4a(195 1～ 1994年 )北极海冰密度逐月资料 ,分析提出了一种与北极冰自然季节变化相吻合的分季法 ,并根据这种分季法 ,使用EOF分解 ,揭示了北极各季海冰面积异常的特征空间型及其对应的时间变化尺度。结果表明 :(1)北极冰面积异常变化的关键区 ,冬季 (2～ 4月 )主要位于北大西洋一侧的格陵兰海、巴伦支海和戴维斯海峡以及北太平洋一侧的鄂霍次克海和白令海 ,夏季 (8～ 10月 )则主要限于从喀拉海、东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海到波佛特海的纬向带状区域内 ,格陵兰海和巴伦支海是北极海冰面积异常变化的最重要区域 ;(2 )春 (5～ 7月 )、秋 (11月～次年 1月 )季各主要海区海冰面积异常基本呈同相变化 ,夏季东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海、波佛特海一带海冰面积异常和喀拉海呈反相变化 ,而冬季巴伦支海、格陵兰海海冰面积异常和戴维斯海峡、拉布拉多海、白令海、鄂霍次克海的海冰变化呈反相变化 ;(3)北极冰总面积过去 4 4a来确实经历了一种趋势性的减少 ,并且叠加在这种趋势变化之上的是年代尺度变化 ,其中春季 (5～ 7月 )海冰面积异常变化对年平均北极冰总面积异常变化作出了主要贡献 ;(4)位于北太平洋一侧极冰面积异常型基本具有半年的持续性 ,而位于北大西洋一侧极冰面积异常型具有半年至一年的持续性  相似文献