Global environmental change: research pathways for the next decade: by Committee on Global Change Research of the US National Research Council,National Academy Press, 1999, 595 pp. ISBN: 0 309 06420 1, (hb) £39.95     

《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2000,62(8):711-712

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Monitoring qualitative spatiotemporal change for geosensor networks     

Mike Worboys  Matt Duckham 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(10):1087-1108

Recent technological advances in geosensor networks demand new models of distributed computation with dynamic spatial information. This paper presents a computational model of spatial change in dynamic regions (such as may be derived from discretizations of continuous fields) founded on embeddings of graphs in orientable surfaces. Continuous change, connectedness and regularity of dynamic regions are defined and local transition rules are used to constrain region evolution and enable more efficient inference of a region's state. The model provides a framework for the detection of global high‐level events based on local low‐level ‘snapshot’ spatiotemporal data. The approach has particular relevance to environmental monitoring with geosensor networks, where technological constraints make the detection of global behaviour from local conditions highly advantageous.  相似文献   

Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of biological reference points for a spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery     

Yi‐Jay Chang  Chi‐Lu Sun  Yong Chen  Su‐Zan Yeh  Wei‐Chuan Chiang 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(1):429-442

The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F _0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F _4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (F _cnr) and estimates of biological reference points (F _BRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F _40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F _0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery.  相似文献   

Modeling the long-term variability of phytoplankton functional groups and primary productivity in the South China Sea     

Wentao Ma  Fei Chai  Peng Xiu  Huijie Xue  Jun Tian 《Journal of Oceanography》2013,69(5):527-544

Primary productivity (PP) and phytoplankton structure play an important role in regulating oceanic carbon cycle. The unique seasonal circulation and upwelling pattern of the South China Sea (SCS) provide an ideal natural laboratory to study the response of nutrients and phytoplankton dynamics to climate variation. In this study, we used a three-dimensional (3D) physical–biogeochemical coupled model to simulate nutrients, phytoplankton biomass, PP, and functional groups in the SCS from 1958 to 2009. The modeled results showed that the annual mean carbon composition of small phytoplankton, diatoms, and coccolithophores was 33.7, 52.7, and 13.6 %, respectively. Diatoms showed a higher seasonal variability than small phytoplankton and coccolithophores. Diatoms were abundant during winter in most areas of the SCS except for the offshore of southeastern Vietnam, where diatom blooms occurred in both summer and winter. Higher values of small phytoplankton and coccolithophores occurred mostly in summer. Our modeled results indicated that the seasonal variability of PP was driven by the East Asian Monsoon. The northeast winter monsoon results in more nutrients in the offshore area of the northwestern Luzon Island and the Sunda Shelf, while the southwest summer monsoon drives coastal upwelling to bring sufficient nutrients to the offshore area of southeastern Vietnam. The modeled PP was correlated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the interannual scale. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño conditions) corresponded to lower PP and the negative phase of ENSO (La Niña conditions) corresponded to higher PP.  相似文献   

A late Holocene paleoclimatic history of Lake Tanganyika, East Africa     

J. Curt Stager  Christine Cocquyt  Constanze Weyhenmeyer 《Quaternary Research》2009,72(1):47-56

A nearshore core (LT03-05) from the north basin of Lake Tanganyika provides diatom, pollen, and sedimentary time series covering the last ca. 3800 yr at 15-36 yr resolution. A chronology supported by 21 AMS dates on terrestrial and lacustrine materials allows us to account for ancient carbon effects on ¹⁴C ages and to propose refinements of the region's climatic history. Conditions drier than those of today were followed after ca. 3.30 ka by an overall wetting trend. Several century-scale climate variations were superimposed upon that trend, with exceptionally rainy conditions occurring 1.70-1.40 ka, 1.15-0.90 ka, 0.70-0.55 ka, and 0.35-0.20 ka. Around 0.55-0.35 ka, during the Spörer sunspot minimum, drier conditions developed in the northern Tanganyika basin while more humid conditions were registered at Lakes Victoria and Naivasha. This indicates significant variability in the nature and distribution of near-equatorial rainfall anomalies during much of the Little Ice Age.  相似文献   

A model study of the Copper River plume and its effects on the northern Gulf of Alaska     

Yuan Wang  Huijie Xue  Fei Chai  Yi Chao  John Farrara 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(2):241-258

A three-level nested Regional Ocean Modeling System was used to examine the seasonal evolution of the Copper River (CR) plume and how it influences the along- and across-shore transport in the northern Gulf of Alaska (NGoA). A passive tracer was introduced in the model to delineate the growth and decay of the plume and to diagnose the spread of the CR discharge in the shelf, into Prince William Sound (PWS) and offshore. Furthermore, a model experiment with doubled discharge was conducted to investigate potential impacts of accelerated glacier melt in future climate scenarios. The 2010 and 2011 simulation revealed that the upstream (eastward) transport in the NGoA is negligible. About 60 % of the passive tracer released in the CR discharge is transported southwestward on the shelf, while another one third goes into PWS with close to 60 % of which exiting PWS to the shelf from Montague Strait. The rest few percent is transported across the shelf break and exported to the GoA basin. The downstream transport and the transport into PWS are strongly regulated by the downwelling-favorable wind, while the offshore transport is related to the accumulation of plume water in the shelf, frontal instability, and the Alaskan Stream. It takes weeks in spring for the buoyancy to accumulate so that a bulge forms outside of the CR estuary. The absence of strong storms as in the summer of 2010 allows the bulge continue growing to trigger frontal instability. These frontal features can interact with the Alaskan Stream to induce transport pulses across the shelf break. Alternatively as in 2011, a downwelling-favorable wind event in early August (near the peak discharge) accelerates the southwestward coastal current and produces an intense downstream transport event. Both processes result in fast drains of the buoyancy and the plume content, thereby rapid disintegration of the plume in the shelf. The plume in the doubled discharge case can be two to three times in size, which affects not only the magnitude but also the timing of certain transport events. In particular, the offshore transport increases by several folds because the plume appears to be more easily entrained by the seaward flow along the side of Hinchinbrook Canyon.  相似文献   

An inter-laboratory comparison of cosmogenic 3He and radiogenic 4He in the CRONUS-P pyroxene standard     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2015

This study reports an inter-laboratory comparison of the ³He and ⁴He concentrations measured in the pyroxene material CRONUS-P. This forms part of the CRONUS-Earth and CRONUS-EU programs, which also produced a series of natural reference materials for in situ produced ²⁶Al, ¹⁰Be, ¹⁴C, ²¹Ne and ³⁶Cl.Six laboratories (GFZ Potsdam, Caltech Pasadena, CRPG Nancy, SUERC Glasgow, BGC Berkeley, Lamont New York) participated in this intercomparison experiment, analyzing between 5 and 22 aliquots each. Intra-laboratory results yield ³He concentrations that are consistent with the reported analytical uncertainties, which suggests that ³He is homogeneous within CRONUS-P. The inter-laboratory dataset (66 determinations from the 6 different labs) is characterized by a global weighted mean of (5.02 ± 0.12) × 10⁹ at g⁻¹ with an overdispersion of 5.6% (2σ). ⁴He is characterized by a larger variability than ³He, and by an inter-lab global weighted mean of (3.60 ± 0.18) × 10¹³ at g⁻¹ (2σ) with an overdispersion of 10.4% (2σ).There are, however, some systematic differences between the six laboratories. More precisely, 2 laboratories obtained mean ³He concentrations that are about 6% higher than the clustered other 4 laboratories. This systematic bias is larger than the analytical uncertainty and not related to the CRONUS-P material (see Schaefer et al., 2015). Reasons for these inter-laboratory offsets are difficult to identify but are discussed below. To improve the precision of cosmogenic ³He dating, we suggest that future studies presenting cosmogenic ³He results also report the ³He concentration measured in the CRONUS-P material in the lab(s) used in a given study.  相似文献   

The most extensive Holocene advance in the Stauning Alper, East Greenland, occurred in the Little Ice Age   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Brenda L. Hall  Carlo Baroni  & George H. Denton 《Polar research》2008,27(2):128-134

We present glacial geologic and chronologic data concerning the Holocene ice extent in the Stauning Alper of East Greenland. The retreat of ice from the late-glacial position back into the mountains was accomplished by at least 11 000 cal years B.P. The only recorded advance after this time occurred during the past few centuries (the Little Ice Age). Therefore, we postulate that the Little Ice Age event represents the maximum Holocene ice extent in this part of East Greenland.  相似文献   

A changing nutrient regime in the Gulf of Maine     

David W. Townsend  Nathan D. RebuckMaura A. Thomas  Lee Karp-BossRachel M. Gettings 《Continental Shelf Research》2010

Recent oceanographic observations and a retrospective analysis of nutrients and hydrography over the past five decades have revealed that the principal source of nutrients to the Gulf of Maine, the deep, nutrient-rich continental slope waters that enter at depth through the Northeast Channel, may have become less important to the Gulf's nutrient load. Since the 1970s, the deeper waters in the interior Gulf of Maine (>100 m) have become fresher and cooler, with lower nitrate (NO₃) but higher silicate (Si(OH)₄) concentrations. Prior to this decade, nitrate concentrations in the Gulf normally exceeded silicate by 4–5 μM, but now silicate and nitrate are nearly equal. These changes only partially correspond with that expected from deep slope water fluxes correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and are opposite to patterns in freshwater discharges from the major rivers in the region. We suggest that accelerated melting in the Arctic and concomitant freshening of the Labrador Sea in recent decades have likely increased the equatorward baroclinic transport of the inner limb of the Labrador Current that flows over the broad continental shelf from the Grand Banks of Newfoundland to the Gulf of Maine. That current system now brings a greater fraction of colder and fresher deep shelf waters into the Gulf than warmer and saltier offshore slope waters which were previously thought to dominate the flux of nutrients. Those deep shelf waters reflect nitrate losses from sediment denitrification and silicate accumulations from rivers and in situ regeneration, which together are altering the nutrient regime and potentially the structure of the planktonic ecosystem.  相似文献   

Bottom pressure tides along a line in the southeast Atlantic Ocean and comparisons with satellite altimetry     

Richard D. Ray  Deirdre A. Byrne 《Ocean Dynamics》2010,60(5):1167-1176

Seafloor pressure records, collected at 11 stations aligned along a single ground track of the Topex/Poseidon and Jason satellites, are analyzed for their tidal content. With very low background noise levels and approximately 27 months of high-quality records, tidal constituents can be estimated with unusually high precision. This includes many high-frequency lines up through the seventh-diurnal band. The station deployment provides a unique opportunity to compare with tides estimated from satellite altimetry, point by point along the satellite track, in a region of moderately high mesoscale variability. That variability can significantly corrupt altimeter-based tide estimates, even with 17 years of data. A method to improve the along-track altimeter estimates by correcting the data for non-tidal variability is found to yield much better agreement with the bottom-pressure data. The technique should prove useful in certain demanding applications, such as altimetric studies of internal tides.  相似文献