2010年冬春气候异常对锡林郭勒盟农牧业的影响     

谢东  郝艳霞  闫淑清  鲁双宁 《内蒙古气象》2011,(1):39-41

气候异常常出现极端天气气候事件和严重的气象灾害,对人类活动和农业生产有严重影响。锡林郭勒盟2009年冬至2010年春气温异常偏低,降水多,一些地区冬季的极端最低气温突破了历史极值。低温多雨的春季气候虽然为牧草生长和农作物播种提供了较好的水分条件,但异常偏低的气温造成严重的热量条件不足,导致锡林郭勒盟大部地区牧草返青期推迟了15~20天,主要作物播种期推迟了10~15天,影响了牧草和农作物生产,推迟了牲畜采青。  相似文献   

Temperature dependence of variations in the end of the growing season from 1982 to 2012 on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau     

Mingjun Ding  Qian Chen  Lanhui Li  Zhaofeng Wang  Linshan Liu 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2016,53(2):147-163

A growing number of studies have focused on variations in vegetation phenology and their correlations with climatic factors. However, there has been little research on changes in spatial heterogeneity with respect to the end of the growing season (EGS) and on responses to climate change for alpine vegetation on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP). In this study, the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the meteorological record from 1982 to 2012 were used to characterize the spatial pattern of variations in the EGS and their relationship to temperature and precipitation on the QTP. Over the entire study period, the EGS displayed no statistically significant trend; however, there was a strong spatial heterogeneity throughout the plateau. Those areas showing a delaying trend in the EGS were mainly distributed in the eastern part of the plateau, whereas those showing an advancing trend were mostly scattered throughout the western part. Our results also showed that change in the vegetation EGS was more closely correlated with air temperature than with precipitation. Nonetheless, the temperature sensitivity of the vegetation EGS became lower as aridity increased, suggesting that precipitation is an important regulator of the response of the vegetation EGS to climate warming. These results indicate spatial differences in key environmental influences on the vegetation EGS that must be taken into account in current phenological models, which are largely driven by temperature.  相似文献   

2003年汛期淮河流域降水的集合预测试验研究   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

徐广阔  赵思雄  王业桂  杨玉震 《气候与环境研究》2007,12(4):481-488

利用并行化全球中期数值预报模式MPGM,对2003年夏季淮河流域特大降水作了集合预报试验。试验中提出一种繁殖循环初始扰动生成方法,产生9个集合成员的初值场,利用该初值集合对这次降水过程进行了集合模拟,然后对集合预报试验的结果同对照试验进行了对比分析,并对降水期间的物理量场及降水情况的模拟结果进行了分析。结果表明:集合预报试验的结果优于不加扰动的对照试验的结果,说明集合预报技术在一定程度上能够减小甚至消除数值预报中的不确定性,提高数值预报的精度;集合预报试验较好地模拟出了降水期间的物理量场与天气形势,并对此次降水情况作了较好的预报,可以对降水预报提供有益的参考。  相似文献   

Quantification of the effect of forest harvesting versus climate on streamflow cycles and trends in an evergreen broadleaf catchment     

Naoki Kabeya  Nick A. Chappell  Wlodek Tych  Akira Shimizu  Shiho Asano  Hiroaki Hagino 《水文科学杂志》2016,61(9):1716-1727

ABSTRACT

A new method known as Unobserved Components–Dynamic Harmonic Regression (UC-DHR) was applied to a 39-year record of rainfall and streamflow for three sub-catchments of the Sarukawa Experimental Watershed in southwestern Japan. Some 25% of the timber was harvested from one of the sub-catchments in May–July 1982 and the objective was to quantify the magnitude of this effect relative to the effects of climate cycles (e.g. Southern Oscillation Index). The observed effects of inter-annual climate cycles (i.e. 0.89–1.36 mm/d) were seen to be comparable (i.e. 0.70–1.17 mm/d) to the effects of harvesting 25% of the standing timber. This result underlines the importance of always quantifying the effect of climate on streamflow response when harvesting impacts are studied.