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T213L31系统是我国新一代中期数值预报业务系统，该文介绍了该系统的实时业务运行流程，着重阐述了实时运行监控方法的设计和实施。通过对整个运行流程的解析、运行相关信息和异常事件的说明以及功能的介绍，使读者可以对T213L31运行监控和维护方法有一个较完整的认识。文章还对T213L31系统准业务和业务运行期间的预报效果进行了较为全面的检验与评估，结果显示:T213系统较国家气象中心的原数值预报业务系统T106L19的预报效果有了明显改进，可用预报时效延长了约1天。但与世界领先的ECMWF的中期数值预报产品相比还存在一定差距，特别是中期时效的预报差距比较明显，还有待于进一步的改进和提高。 相似文献
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不同初始场条件对GRAPES模式数值预报的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用中国新一代数值预报模式GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System),分别使用T213 L31及NCEP FNL 6 h间隔的资料作为初始和边界条件,对2005年7月9—10日淮河流域一次致洪暴雨过程进行了个例试验,初步探讨了GRAPES模式的数值预报产品对不同初始场的敏感程度,以及三维变分同化对数值预报结果的可能影响。结果表明,T213和NCEP初始场中存在着差异较大的次天气尺度特征,并由此造成了此后GRAPES模式预报场的差异,且此差异不会随时间消失;同化对GRAPES模式积分结果的影响主要表现在最初的24 h内;模式对此次致洪暴雨过程的暴雨区分布、强度均有一定的模拟能力,但模拟的强暴雨区与实况仍存在着较大差异。由此可知,GRAPES模式的数值预报能力对不同的初始场和侧边界条件存在不同程度的依赖性,初始场的差异决定了模拟结果的差异。 相似文献
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In this paper,a heavy rainfall process occurring in the Huaihe River Basin during 9-10 July 2005 is studied by the new generation numerical weather prediction model system-GRAPES,from the view of different initial field effects on the prediction of the model.Several numerical experiments are conducted with the initial conditions and lateral boundary fields provided by T213 L31 and NCEP final analyses,respectively. The sensitivity of prediction products generated by GRAPES to different initial conditions,including effects of three-dimensional variational assimilation on the results,is discussed.After analyzing the differences between the two initial fields and the four simulated results,the memonic ability of the model to initial fields and their influences on precipitation forecast are investigated.Analyses show the obvious differences of sub-synoptic scale between T213 and NCEP initial fields,which result in the corresponding different simulation results,and the differences do not disappear with the integration running.It also shows that for the same initial field whether it has data assimilation or not,it only obviously influences the GRAPES model results in the initial 24 h.Then the differences reduce.In addition,both the Iocation and intensity of heavy rain forecasted by GRAPES model Further is very close to the fact,but the forecasting area of strong torrential rain has some differences from the fact.For the same initial field when it has assimilation, the 9-12-,12-24-,and 0-24-h precipitation forecasts of the model are better than those without assimilation. All these suggest that the ability of GRAPES numerical prediction depends on the different initial fields and lateral boundary conditions to some extent,and the differences of initial fields will determine the differences of GRAPES simulated results. 相似文献
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Low-frequency current variability observed at the shelfbreak in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico: May–October, 2004 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
W.J. Teague E. Jarosz M.R. Carnes D.A. Mitchell P.J. Hogan 《Continental Shelf Research》2006,26(20):2559-2582
High-resolution current measurements were made in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) as part of its Slope to Shelf Energetics and Exchange Dynamics (SEED) project. The major goal of SEED is to understand the mechanisms that transfer properties across the shelf slope. Fourteen acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) were deployed just west of the DeSoto Canyon on the shelf and down the slope from May to November, 2004 to measure nearly full water column current profiles. Currents were found more variable on the shelf than on the slope but in the mean strongly tended to follow bathymetry, particularly on the slope. During the SEED time period currents were driven by both local and remote winds, by cyclonic eddies associated with the Loop Current extension and Loop Current rings, by smaller eddies associated with the cyclonic eddies, by frontal meanders or streamers associated with the eddies, and by tropical storms. Currents were highly barotropic, accounting for more than 80% of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE). Current magnitudes generally increased from west to east, towards the DeSoto Canyon. Tropical storms had a relatively minor short-term effect upon mass transports. Cross-shelf transports were much smaller than the along-shelf transports. Onshore transports were stronger on the western side of the array while offshore transports were stronger on the eastern side of the array near the DeSoto Canyon. Offshore transports generally occurred during eastward flow periods, onshore transports during westward flow periods, and both during eddy periods. Mesoscale eddies also provided contributions to cross-shelf exchange. Large scale circulation features could be determined from the first two empirical-orthogonal function (EOF) modes which accounted for 83% of the variance and were strongly related to the integrated wind stress. 相似文献
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Theoretical visibility curves are presented for one carbon and one oxygen star. We aim to show the importance of measurements at wavelengths across the band. 相似文献
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A. D. Mackey A. M. N. Ferguson M. J. Irwin N. F. Martin A. P. Huxor N. R. Tanvir S. C. Chapman R. A. Ibata G. F. Lewis A. W. McConnachie 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2010,401(1):533-546
We report on deep imaging of a remote M31 globular cluster, MGC1, obtained with Gemini/GMOS. Our colour–magnitude diagram for this object extends ∼5 mag below the tip of the red-giant branch and exhibits features consistent with an ancient metal-poor stellar population, including a long, well-populated horizontal branch. The red-giant branch locus suggests MGC1 has a metal abundance [M/H]≈−2.3 . We measure the distance to MGC1 and find that it lies ∼160 kpc in front of M31 with a distance modulus μ= 23.95 ± 0.06 . Combined with its large projected separation of R p = 117 kpc from M31, this implies a deprojected radius of R gc = 200 ± 20 kpc , rendering it the most isolated known globular cluster in the Local Group by some considerable margin. We construct a radial brightness profile for MGC1 and show that it is both centrally compact and rather luminous, with MV =−9.2 . Remarkably, the cluster profile shows no evidence for a tidal limit and we are able to trace it to a radius of at least 450 pc, and possibly as far as ∼900 pc. The profile exhibits a power-law fall-off with exponent γ=−2.5 , breaking to γ=−3.5 in its outermost parts. This core-halo structure is broadly consistent with expectations derived from numerical models, and suggests that MGC1 has spent many gigayears in isolation. 相似文献
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Ruben García-Benito 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2010,10(7)
Planetary nebulae (PNe) are good tracers of the stellar populations, chem-ical composition and dynamics of their host galaxies. This paper reports the dis-covery of new PNe in the outskirts of the Andromeda Galaxy (M 31) with the Guoshoujing Telescope (GSJT, formerly named the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope-LAMOST) during its early commissioning phase. In total, 36 candidates selected from SDSS photometry are confirmed in terms of their PN nature, including 17 new discoveries and another 19 previously known emission line objects. Their positions, spectra, radial velocities and m5007 magnitudes are presented.We discuss the potential for detecting more PNe in M 31 with GSJT's multi-object spectroscopy and the related applications in studies of the dynamics and chemistry of M31 and its assemblage history. 相似文献