Response of streamflow to climate change and human activity in Xitiaoxi river basin in China          下载免费PDF全文

Canqiang Zhang  Biao Zhang  Wenhua Li  Moucheng Liu 《水文研究》2014,28(1):43-50

In recent years, the Xitiaoxi river basin in China has experienced intensified human activity, including city expansion and increased water demand. Climate change also has influenced streamflow. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activity on hydrological processes is important for water resources planning and management and for the sustainable development of eco‐environmental systems. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was employed to detect the trends of climatic and hydrological variables. The Mann–Kendall–Sneyers test and the moving t‐test were used to locate any abrupt change of annual streamflow. A runoff model, driven by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, was employed to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow. A significant downward trend was detected for annual streamflow from 1975 to 2009, and an abrupt change occurred in 1999, which was consistent with the change detected by the double mass curve test between streamflow and precipitation. The annual precipitation decreased slightly, but upward trends of annual mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration were significant. The annual streamflow during the period 1999–2009 decreased by 26.19% compared with the reference stage, 1975–1998. Climate change was estimated to be responsible for 42.8% of the total reduction in annual streamflow, and human activity accounted for 57.2%. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal water quality characteristics of Poyang Lake Migratory Bird Sanctuary in China     

Yue Liang  Huayun Xiao  Xiaozhen Liu  Jian Xiong  Wenhua Li 《中国地球化学学报》2015,(1):38-46

Poyang Lake Migratory Bird Sanctuary includes Bang Lake, Sha Lake, Dahu Lake, and estuaries of the Xiu and Gan Rivers in the Migratory Bird Natural Reserve. Water samples were collected and analyzed to study spatial and temporal water quality variation. Strong seasonal variation of water quality was found. The water quality of Bang Lake was relatively poor compared to Sha and Dahu Lakes in the wet season, but better in the normal season. During the dry season, the water quality of Bang Lake is negatively affected by the activity of migratory birds. According to the correlation analysis of monthly concentrations of each parameter, the concentrations of COD, NH?-4–N, and NO3–N were highly correlated. The correlation index was 0.829 and significance index was0.042 \ 0.05. From north to south within Bang Lake, the concentration of TN decreased; however, the concentration of Chl-a increased. From east to west within Bang Lake,concentrations of COD, NH?4–N, NO-3–N, and Chl-a increased. The Xiu and Gan Rivers influence the water quality of Bang Lake, especially in the northeast area of the lake. The water quality of Bang Lake only reached Chinese water quality standard level IV or V according to a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The evaluation factors impacting Bang Lake are TN[TP[NH?4–N[COD, in order of decreasing importance. The waters of Poyang Lake Migratory Bird Sanctuary have been polluted; one of the important contributing factors was migratory birds’ disturbance and feces.  相似文献   

Impacts of climate variability and human activities on decrease in streamflow in the Qinhe River,China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Peng Bai  Wenhua Liu  Mengjing Guo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,117(1-2):293-301

Under the impacts of climate variability and human activities, there are statistically significant decreasing trends for streamflow in the Yellow River basin, China. Therefore, it is crucial to separate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow decrease for better water resources planning and management. In this study, the Qinhe River basin (QRB), a typical sub-basin in the middle reach of the Yellow River, was chosen as the study area to assess the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow decrease. The trend and breakpoint of observed annual streamflow from 1956 to 2010 were identified by the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test. The results showed that the observed annual streamflow decreased significantly (P?<?0.05) and a breakpoint around 1973 was detected. Therefore, the time series was divided into two periods: “natural period” (before the breakpoint) and “impacted period” (after the breakpoint). The observed annual streamflow decreased by 68.1 mm from 102.3 to 34.2 mm in the two periods. The climate elasticity method and hydrological model were employed to separate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow decrease. The results indicated that climate variability was responsible for 54.1 % of the streamflow decrease estimated by the climate elasticity method and 59.3 % estimated by the hydrological modeling method. Therefore, the climate variability was the main driving factor for streamflow decrease in the QRB. Among these driving factors of natural and anthropogenic, decrease in precipitation and increase in water diversion were the two major contributions of streamflow reduction. The finding in this study can serve as a reference for regional water resources management and planning.  相似文献   

非线性滤波在含“开关”过程的资料同化中的应用研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

郑琴  吴文华 《气象学报》2011,69(3):423-431

利用一个描述实际数值天气预报模式中比湿在单格线上随时间发展的偏微分方程作为控制方程,研究分析了非线性滤波方法在含开关过程的资料同化中的有效性和可行性。首先在贝叶斯理论框架下,讨论了一般情形的非线性滤波方法,然后对基于粒子滤波(PF)和基于集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)的两种同化方法进行对比,由于EnKF是通过对集合成员的统计分析得到的误差分布的一阶矩和二阶矩来近似真实误差分布的,所以当用高斯分布近似真实误差分布所产生的误差较大时,基于EnKF的同化方法得到的结果也会有较大的误差。最后分别从观测算子为线性和非线性、观测误差为高斯型和非高斯型4种情形进行数值试验,结果显示当观测误差为高斯型时,无论观测算子为线性还是非线性,基于PF和基于EnKF的同化方法都能克服由开关过程给资料同化带来的困难,给出满意的同化结果;而当观测误差为非高斯型时,EnKF出现滤波不稳定,产生了非理想的同化结果,但PF方法仍然能够有效地发挥作用,给出满意的同化结果。  相似文献   

High-resolution mesoscale analysis data from the South China heavy rainfall experiment (SCHeREX): Data generation and quality evaluation          下载免费PDF全文

Yunqi Ni  Chunguang Cui  Hongli Li  Juxiang Peng  Xuexing Qiu  Yanxia Zhang  Xiaolin Xu  Mei Gao  Lianshu Jie  Wenhua Zhang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(4):478-493

In this study, the observational data acquired in the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX) from May to July 2008 and 2009 were integrated and assimilated with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; information available online at ). A high-resolution mesoscale analysis dataset was then generated at a spatial resolution of 5 km and a temporal resolution of 3 h in four observational areas: South China, Central China, Jianghuai area, and Yangtze River Delta area. The quality of this dataset was evaluated as follows. First, the dataset was qualitatively compared with radar reflectivity and TBB image for specific heavy rainfall events so as to examine its capability in reproduction of mesoscale systems. The results show that the SCHeREX analysis dataset has a strong capability in capturing severe mesoscale convective systems. Second, the mean deviation and root mean square error of the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis fields were analyzed and compared with radiosonde data. The results reveal that the errors of geopotential height, temperature, relative humidity, and wind of the SCHeREX analysis were within the acceptable range of observation errors. In particular, the average error was 45 m for geopotential height between 700 and 925 hPa, 1.0–1.1°C for temperature, less than 20% for relative humidity, 1.5–2.0 m s⁻¹ for wind speed, and 20°–25° for wind direction. The above results clearly indicate that the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis dataset is of high quality and sufficient reliability, and it is applicable to refined mesoscale weather studies.  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal characteristics of earthquake disaster losses in China from 1993 to 2016     

Xiaoli Li  Zhiqiang Li  Jiansi Yang  Yaohui Liu  Bo Fu  Wenhua Qi  Xiwei Fan 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(2):843-861

The present study analyzes the runoff response during extreme rain events over the basin of Subarnarekha River in India using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The SWAT model is configured for the Subarnarekha River basin with 32 sub-basins. Three gauging stations in the basin (viz., Adityapur, Jamshedpur and Ghatshila) were selected to assess the model performance. Daily stream flow data are taken from Central Water Commission, India—Water Resources Information System. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using the soil and water assessment tool-calibration uncertainty programs (SWAT-CUPs) with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. The model was run for the period from 1982 to 2011 with a calibration period from 1982 to 1997 and a validation period from 1998 to 2011. The sensitivity of basin parameters has been analyzed in order to improve the runoff simulation efficiency of the model. The study concluded that the model performed well in Ghatshila gauging station with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.68 during calibration and 0.62 during validation at daily scale. The model, thus calibrated and validated, was then applied to evaluate the extreme monsoon rain events in recent years. Five extreme events were identified in Jamshedpur and Ghatshila sub-basins of Subarnarekha River basin. The simulation results were found to be good for the extreme events with the NSE of 0.89 at Jamshedpur and 0.96 at Ghatshila gauging stations. The findings of this study can be useful in runoff simulation and flood forecasting for extreme rainfall events in Subarnarekha River basin.  相似文献   

Impact of climatic change on streamflow in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River,China     

Xiaorong Huang  Jingwei Zhao  Wenhua Li  Hongxia Jiang 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):154-164

Abstract

Characteristics of hydroclimatic change in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River are analysed using data collected over the past 50 years. The effect of autocorrelation of time series on trend analysis is removed by adopting a pre-whitening technique. Long-term hydrometeorological trend and abrupt changes are analysed by the Mann-Kendall test. The results were validated by the linear trend and Spearman methods. Correlations between runoff change with air temperature and with precipitation were studied with the Pearson method. The results clearly show that average air temperature in the upper reaches of the river is increasing, and precipitation decreasing, with differences in spatio-temporal distribution. Runoff change has a clear positive correlation with precipitation. Meteorological change, especially in precipitation, is the key governing influence of runoff volume. The annual runoff decrease, especially the decrease of inflow in spring and autumn and earlier appearance and longer duration of the low-flow season, will impact greatly on irrigation and municipal water supply. Therefore, relevant measures and further study are necessary.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. Zhang

Citation Huang, X.R., Zhao, J.W., Li, W.H., and Jiang, H.X., 2013. Impact of climatic change on streamflow in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 154–164.  相似文献   

测井约束反演在鄂尔多斯盆地东缘致密砂岩勘探中的应用     

桂文华  常锁亮  曾维望 《中国煤炭地质》2014,(3):53-58

"先成型"致密砂岩气的勘探重点是寻找相对高孔渗砂岩,基于该观点,以鄂尔多斯盆地东缘上古生界为研究对象,以"相控储层"为思路,结合构造、沉积等研究成果,开展测井约束反演工作,以此寻找相对高孔渗优质储层。研究区有利储层较为成功的预测表明,依据地质、测井资料,采用拟声波重构技术可有效提高测井曲线岩性识别能力,并为砂岩识别提供波阻抗门槛;利用自动迭代子波扫描求取每口井的最佳子波,实行多个子波同时参与反演,可获得初始模型与井旁地震数据的最佳匹配。另外在构建地质模型时,针对不同储层的沉积特点,选取了不同的插值方式进行分段反演,有效划分出不同层段中有利区带及最佳目的层段。  相似文献   

谱分解技术在煤层厚度预测及沉积环境方面的应用     

郝治国  常锁亮  张新民  施绍武  桂文华  许玉莹  成跃 《中国煤炭地质》2014,(2):55-59

谱分解技术是通过短时窗离散傅里叶变换(DFT)将地震资料从时间域转换到频率域,得到振幅谱及相位谱调谐体的一项处理技术。通过谱分解顺层相位与频率切片可以较清晰地了解区内煤层的岩性特征及沉积环境,从而预测煤厚。基于该项技术,以山西省沁水盆地某研究区山西组3煤层为例,研究了3号煤层厚度与下伏砂岩厚度的对应关系,发现3煤层厚度与基底分流河道砂岩厚度呈负相关关系,即煤层厚度随基底砂岩厚度增大而减小。由此认为在三角洲平原沉积环境下,在钻孔较少且分布不均匀时,可通过谱分解属性切片对煤层基底砂岩厚度的预测来推断煤厚。该区利用谱分解技术预测的煤厚趋势与振幅法获得的煤厚趋势相比,其精度较高,因此,谱分解技术不失为一种较好的煤层预测方法。  相似文献   

基于能耗最优的TLP张力腿水下无线监测组网方法研究     

甘祥吉  黄龚赛  武文华 《海洋工程》2022,40(3):139-148

张力腿作为张力腿平台(tension leg platform,简称TLP)的重要组成部分,服役水深大,动力学行为复杂多样。为了保障张力腿的结构安全,开展张力腿的水下全方位监测十分必要。文中以某TLP为依托,构建一套能耗最优的张力腿监测系统。首先,利用附加质量法对张力腿进行湿模态分析,结合有效独立法与模态置信度准则确定张力腿监测节点的具体布设方案;其次,以能耗最低为优化目标,基于遗传算法建立了水下无线组网监测方案,同时讨论了监测节点存在失效时监测数据传输路径改变方案;最终,得到一套能耗最优的TLP张力腿水下无线组网监测方法,以降低水下监测系统维护成本。  相似文献