基于Tweedie-GAM模型研究海州湾小黄鱼资源丰度与栖息环境的关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张云雷  徐宾铎  张崇良  任一平  薛莹 《海洋学报》2019,41(12):78-89

本研究根据2011年及2013—2016年春季和秋季在海州湾及其邻近海域进行的底拖网调查数据，结合同步采集的底层海水温度、底层海水盐度、水深、底质类型，以及脊腹褐虾(Crangon affinis)、细螯虾(Leptochela gracilis)、鳀(Engraulis japonicus)、赤鼻棱鳀(Thrissa kammalensis)等小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)主要饵料生物的资源丰度数据，采用条件数κ和方差膨胀因子(VIF)度量多重共线性的程度，选取关键环境因子，再应用基于Tweedie分布的广义可加模型(GAM)研究不同季节和不同生长阶段的小黄鱼资源丰度与环境因子的关系。多重共线性的检验表明，所有初始变量之间没有显著的多重共线性，均可作为解释变量代入模型。结果表明:不同季节和生长阶段，影响小黄鱼资源分布的主要因子及其偏差解释率各不相同，各变量所对应的适宜范围也不同。例如:影响春季小黄鱼幼体资源分布的主要因子有底层海水温度、底层海水盐度、水深和脊腹褐虾的分布，其中偏差解释率最大的因子为水深(16.09%)；而影响春季成体资源分布的因子为底层海水温度、底层海水盐度、水深及脊腹褐虾和鳀的分布，其中偏差解释率最大的因子为底层海水盐度(13.56%)。本研究表明，海州湾及其邻近海域不同季节和不同生长阶段小黄鱼的资源分布与其自身的生态习性、海洋环境以及饵料生物的分布密切相关。  相似文献   

Evaluating impacts of pulse fishing on the effectiveness of seasonal closure     

邢磊  陈勇  张崇良  李拜  Yunne-Jai Shin  任一平 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(4):89-99

Seasonal fishing closures are often used in fisheries management to conserve overfished stocks.As one of the unintended consequences,fishermen often contend for maximizing catches immediately after reopening fisheries.The resultant large catch landings in a short time period(i.e.,pulse fishing)may undermine the benefit of closure.We implemented an end-to-end model OSMOSE-JZB(Object-oriented Simulator of Marine ec OSystem Exploitation OSMOSE)modelling ecosystem in the Jiaozhou Bay located in China to evaluate the impact of pulse fishing on the effectiveness of seasonal closure at levels of fish community,population,and individual.Our study demonstrated that the three-month closure was successful in conserving fish stocks.There were small variations on ecological indicators(i.e.,total biomass of the community,mean trophic level of the community,mean trophic level of the catch,and Shannon-Wiener biodiversity index)when pulse fishing occurred.Pulse fishing seemed not to result in a great shift in community structure.Compared to other species,the biomass of two large predatory fishes were more susceptible to pulse fishing.Pulse fishing could change the pressure of predators to fish stocks via food webs,especially for young individuals.Our simulations indicate that we can improve the effectiveness of seasonal closure by managing pulse fishing.Although the results derived in this study may be specific to the target ecosystem,the general approach is applicable to other ecosystems when evaluating fishing impacts.  相似文献   

海州湾及邻近海域口虾蛄栖息地适宜性建模的环境变量优化     

张云雷  于华明  于海庆  徐宾铎  张崇良  任一平  薛莹  许莉莉 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(6):36-47

Habitat suitability index(HSI) models have been widely used to analyze the relationship between species abundance and environmental factors, and ultimately inform management of marine species. The response of species abundance to each environmental variable is different and habitat requirements may change over life history stages and seasons. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the optimal combination of environmental variables in HSI modelling. In this study, generalized additive models(GAMs) were used to determine which environmental variables to be included in the HSI models. Significant variables were retained and weighted in the HSI model according to their relative contribution(%) to the total deviation explained by the boosted regression tree(BRT). The HSI models were applied to evaluate the habitat suitability of mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria in the Haizhou Bay and adjacent areas in 2011 and 2013–2017. Ontogenetic and seasonal variations in HSI models of mantis shrimp were also examined. Among the four models(non-optimized model, BRT informed HSI model,GAM informed HSI model, and both BRT and GAM informed HSI model), both BRT and GAM informed HSI model showed the best performance. Four environmental variables(bottom temperature, depth, distance offshore and sediment type) were selected in the HSI models for four groups(spring-juvenile, spring-adult, falljuvenile and fall-adult) of mantis shrimp. The distribution of habitat suitability showed similar patterns between juveniles and adults, but obvious seasonal variations were observed. This study suggests that the process of optimizing environmental variables in HSI models improves the performance of HSI models, and this optimization strategy could be extended to other marine organisms to enhance the understanding of the habitat suitability of target species.  相似文献   

On the attribution of changing pan evaporation in a nature reserve in SW China     

Guangyong You  Yiping Zhang  Yuhong Liu  Qinghai Song  Zhiyun Lu  Zhenghong Tan  Chuansheng Wu  Youneng Xie 《水文研究》2013,27(18):2676-2682

Negative trends of measured pan evaporation are widely reported. Studies of the factors that underlie this reduction in pan evaporation have not reached a consensus about the controlling factors. Most studies employ statistical analysis (correlation analysis or stepwise regression) to identify the controlling climatic variables; in contrast, few studies have employed physical‐based theories. In addition, observations of pan evaporation and related climatic variables are reported to be influenced by anthropogenic activities. Consequently, the observed trends of climatic variables in a nature reserve would be useful for understanding regional climate change. The present study site is located in Ailaoshan National Nature Reserve, SW China, which is free of anthropogenic activity. In this study, we firstly applied the adjusted PenPan model to estimate the pan evaporation. Then, using this physical‐based model, we identified a positive trend in pan evaporation, with a much larger increase in the dry season than in the wet season. The model results indicate that the change in the aerodynamic component is larger than that in the radiative component. In contrast to the reduction in wind speed and sunshine hours that has been reported in previous studies at various sites, we found that wind speed and sunshine hours have increased in recent decades, thereby explaining the increase of the pan evaporation rate. Wind speed made the greatest contribution to the change in pan evaporation, followed by sunshine duration. This study indicates that the potential evaporation has increased at this site despite the widely reported reduction in measured pan evaporation. During the dry season, the availability of water for agriculture and agroforestry could be threatened. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地南缘寒武纪同沉积伸展断裂系统及其成因机制分析     

熊伟东  肖安成  魏国齐  吴磊  张春林  王依平  杨流昀  王芊芊 《地学前缘》2022,29(6):305-313

由于复杂的构造叠加及严重的覆盖,人们对鄂尔多斯盆地早古生代深部结构的研究仍很薄弱。本文主要通过地震数据处理和解释,结合野外地质调查,发现在寒武纪时期,盆地的南缘发育了一套北东向和近东西向的正断裂系统。作者对这套断裂系统的平面及剖面特征进行了详细的描述和分析,并结合区域地质背景探讨了其成因机制,结果表明该套断裂系统主要是由于先存的元古宙北东向基底断层在寒武纪时期发生了继承性活动而形成,同时在断裂系统的局部区段派生出了东西向展布的小规模新生断层。这套断裂系统的发现可能对鄂尔多斯盆地南缘在寒武纪的演化认识及油气勘探具有一定的启示意义。  相似文献   

“07·06”周口龙卷现场调查和可预警性综合分析     

张一平  牛淑贞  郑世林  张宁  王建忠  刘莹莹 《气象》2019,45(8):1135-1148

对2017年7月6日周口局地龙卷致灾强对流天气进行现场调查,利用常规高空地面、区域加密自动站、新一代天气雷达以及FY-2G实时分析资料,综合分析了龙卷的环境条件和可预警性。结果表明:(1)此次龙卷灾害主要出现在西华和淮阳两县交界处长约4.5～5 km、宽约100～150 m的地带,具有显著γ中尺度涡旋特征,龙卷强度整体为EF1级,最强达到EF2级。(2)在中纬度低槽东移和副热带高压边缘西南暖湿气流共同影响下,高空分流辐散和低空急流发展的配置为暴雨、局地龙卷提供了有利的天气尺度动力条件,龙卷风暴由强降水冷出流和东部暖湿环境之间形成的辐合线上的气旋性辐合诱发产生,地面自动站温度、露点和能量梯度大值带偏暖湿的正涡度中心附近是龙卷可能发生的区域。(3)08时阜阳探空资料分析大气处于较强的条件不稳定状态,对流有效位能为1712 J·kg~(-1)(14时温度、露点订正后为3182 J·kg~(-1)),K指数为43℃,SWEAT指数为312,SI为-4.5℃;大气可降水量在67 mm左右;抬升凝结高度很低,位于959.2 hPa处,代表低层垂直风切变的0～1 km风矢量差在10 m·s~(-1)或以上。大的热力不稳定和低层垂直风切变及低的抬升凝结高度为小尺度龙卷的发生提供了环境条件。(4)在卫星云图上,龙卷发生在大尺度暖区云带前部,云顶亮温低至-72℃,对流发展非常旺盛。闪电监测龙卷位于闪电密集区东侧。(5)雷达回波图上,龙卷发生在东北一西南向暴雨回波带前沿的块状强回波处。中气旋和龙卷涡旋特征在实时业务中可以作为预警龙卷的可靠线索,根据其持续、移动特点可对局地龙卷提前预警,旋转速度迅速加强、高度下降预示龙卷将影响到地面。以上结论可作为今后黄淮平原监测预警龙卷的参考依据。  相似文献   

Spatial and seasonal variations in the trophic spectrum of demersal fish assemblages in Jiaozhou Bay,China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

韩东燕  薛莹  任一平  麻秋云 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2015,33(4):934-944

Trophic structure of fish communities is fundamental for ecosystem-based fisheries management, and trophic spectrum classifies fishes by their positions in food web, which provides a simple summary on the trophic structure and ecosystem function. In this study, both fish biomass and abundance trophic spectra were constructed to study the spatial and seasonal variations in the trophic structure of demersal fish assemblages in Jiaozhou Bay, China. Data were collected from four seasonal bottom trawl surveys in Jiaozhou Bay from February to November in 2011. Trophic levels(TLs) of fishes were determined by nitrogen stable isotope analysis. This study indicated that most of these trophic spectra had a single peak at trophic level(TL) of 3.4–3.7, suggesting that demersal fish assemblages of Jiaozhou Bay were dominated by secondary consumers(eg. Pholis fangi and Amblychaeturichthys hexanema). The spatial and seasonal variations of trophic spectra of Jiaozhou Bay reflected the influence of fish reproduction, fishing pressure and migration of fishes. Two-way analysis of variance(ANOVA) showed that seasonal variations in trophic spectra in Jiaozhou Bay were significant(P 0.05), but variations among different areas were not significant( P 0.05). The trophic spectrum has been proved to be a useful tool to monitor the trophic structure of fish assemblages. This study highlighted the comprehensive application of fish biomass and abundance trophic spectra in the study on trophic structure of fish assemblages.  相似文献   

淮河流域东北部一次异常特大暴雨的数值模拟研究 Ⅱ: 不稳定条件及其增强和维持机制分析   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

王亦平  陆维松  潘益农  王元 《气象学报》2008,66(2):177-189

利用"淮河流域东北部一次异常特大暴雨的数值模拟研究Ⅰ"的数值模拟结果,分析了几种不稳定对流涡度矢量(CVV)与中尺度深湿对流系统之间的关系,并分析了不稳定条件的增强和维持机制,结果表明:(1)中低层对流不稳定是深湿对流系统发生的先决条件,由于低层存在辐合,使得周围湿空气向暴雨区集中,对流单体在暴雨区汇聚,且发生合并增强,台风左前方向暴雨区输送对流不稳定能量等,是使得暴雨区对流不稳定重新建立和加强的重要机制.(2)深湿对流系统的中低层不仅有对流不稳定,而且还有斜压不稳定、条件对称不稳定,而中高层必须有湿斜压不稳定和条件对称不稳定.深湿对流系统中高层西(北)侧为负MPV2柱,东(南)侧为正MPV2柱;(3)深湿对流系统中惯性不稳定柱与惯性稳定柱相间分布,西(南)侧为负CVV柱,东(北)侧为正CVV柱,负CVV柱对深湿对流起激发作用;(4)惯性不稳定、湿倾斜不稳定和条件不稳定产生强的倾斜式对流,而强的倾斜式上升运动加强了深对流系统北侧高层的南风分量,因深对流系统南侧低层出现补偿性下沉气流,因而低层南风加强,高低空急流中心的加强会进一步加强对流的发展,使得惯性不稳定、湿倾斜不稳定及条件不稳定增强和维持,这是一个正反馈过程.(5)在暴雨中心以东维持一顺切变环流,同时暴雨中心的浅对流单体吸收来自南方的水汽和不稳定能量,中尺度辐合线与β中尺度涡旋对对流单体起组织和增强作用,对流系统中辐合、辐散柱相间分布,强散度柱与强涡柱互伴互耦,都有利于形成中尺度深湿对流系统,使不稳定向纵深方向发展,从而使得不稳定得到增强和维持.  相似文献   

两次大暴雨的新一代雷达产品和闪电特征分析     

张一平  牛淑贞  王金莲  介玉娥  齐红 《河南气象》2009,(1)

应用新一代雷达产品、闪电监测定位资料等对2007年河南省郑州、信阳两次突发大暴雨过程进行了对比分析。结果表明:高空冷涡后部的冷空气和副热带高压西北侧的暖湿气流在信阳地区交绥是信阳暴雨产生的主要原因,锋前暖区暖平流使地面出现热低压产生辐合,从而激发局地强对流是郑州暴雨产生的主要原因;地面冷锋是两次突发暴雨的触发机制,信阳、郑州均处于中尺度辐合线上强辐合上升运动处。从闪电参数看,信阳暴雨过程全部为负闪,郑州暴雨过程正闪比例为39%,且闪电总频次明显高于信阳。郑州暴雨是由快速发展的块状单体回波造成,信阳暴雨是由混合降水回波持续造成。新一代雷达平均径向速度特征对突发暴雨有很好的指示意义,分析径向速度图对提前发布暴雨预警信号有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

DRAV model and its application in assessing groundwater vulnerability in arid area: a case study of pore phreatic water in Tarim Basin,Xinjiang, Northwest China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jinlong Zhou  Guomin Li  Feng Liu  Yiping Wang  Xiaojing Guo 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,60(5):1055-1063

According to the characteristics of groundwater in arid area, this paper proposes DRAV model for groundwater vulnerability assessment, where D is groundwater depth, R is the net recharge of aquifer, A is the aquifer characteristics, and V is the lithology of vadose zone. As a case study, the paper assesses the vulnerability of pore phreatic water in Tarim Basin of Xinjiang, China by using the DRAV model. The results indicate that the areas of phreatic water with vulnerability index ranges of 2–4, 4–6, 6–8 and >8 accounting for 10.1, 80.4, 9.2 and 0.2% of the total plain area of the Tarim Basin respectively, and the areas with the latter two vulnerability ranges (6–8 and >8) are mainly located in the irrigation districts with thin soil layer (20–30 cm thick surface soil of vadose zone, mainly with underlying sandy gravel) and with silty and fine sand layer. Such vadose zone generally lacks sandy loam and clayey soil and has larger recharge by infiltration of irrigation water.  相似文献