Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands     

Saskia Van Vuren  Huib J. De. Vriend  Sonja Ouwerkerk  Matthijs Kok 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):81-102

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.  相似文献   

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept          下载免费PDF全文

James O. Knighton  M. Todd Walter 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3788-3803

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Glacial flood pulse effects on benthic fauna in equatorial high‐Andean streams          下载免费PDF全文

Sophie Cauvy‐Fraunié  Patricio Andino  Rodrigo Espinosa  Roger Calvez  Fabien Anthelme  Dean Jacobsen  Olivier Dangles 《水文研究》2014,28(6):3008-3017

Equatorial glacier‐fed streams present unique hydraulic patterns when compared to glacier‐fed observed in temperate regions as the main variability in discharge occurs on a daily basis. To assess how benthic fauna respond to these specific hydraulic conditions, we investigated the relationships between flow regime, hydraulic conditions (boundary Reynolds number, Re*), and macroinvertebrate communities (taxon richness and abundance) in a tropical glacier‐fed stream located in the high Ecuadorian Andes (> 4000 m). Both physical and biotic variables were measured under four discharge conditions (base‐flow and glacial flood pulses of various intensities), at 30 random points, in two sites whose hydraulic conditions were representative to those found in other streams of the study catchment. While daily glacial flood pulses significantly increased hydraulic stress in the benthic habitats (appearance of Re* > 2000), low stress areas still persisted even during extreme flood events (Re* < 500). In contrast to previous research in temperate glacier‐fed streams, taxon richness and abundance were not significantly affected by changes in hydraulic conditions induced by daily glacial flood pulses. However, we found that a few rare taxa, in particular rare ones, preferentially occurred in highly stressed hydraulic habitats. Monte‐Carlo simulations of benthic communities under glacial flood reduction scenarios predicted that taxon richness would be significantly reduced by the loss of high hydraulic stress habitats following glacier shrinking. This pioneer study on the relationship between hydraulic conditions and benthic diversity in an equatorial glacial stream evidenced unknown effects of climate change on singular yet endangered aquatic systems. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method          下载免费PDF全文

Lei Ye  Jianzhong Zhou  Hoshin V. Gupta  Hairong Zhang  Xiaofan Zeng  Lu Chen 《水文研究》2016,30(15):2703-2716

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A modelling framework for evaluation of the hydrological impacts of nature‐based approaches to flood risk management,with application to in‐channel interventions across a 29‐km2 scale catchment in the United Kingdom          下载免费PDF全文

Peter Metcalfe  Keith Beven  Barry Hankin  Rob Lamb 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1734-1748

Nature‐based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in‐channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in‐channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000 m³ is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double‐peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature‐based approach.  相似文献   

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Keith E. Schilling  Philip W. Gassman  Catherine L. Kling  Todd Campbell  Manoj K. Jha  Calvin F. Wolter  Jeffrey G. Arnold 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3314-3325

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions          下载免费PDF全文

Elisabeth Stephens  Paul Bates 《水文研究》2015,29(19):4264-4283

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD‐FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post‐peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding          下载免费PDF全文

Jefferson S. Wong  Jim E. Freer  Paul D. Bates  David A. Sear  Elisabeth M. Stephens 《水文研究》2015,29(2):261-279

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum flood series using the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions          下载免费PDF全文

Lei Yan  Lihua Xiong  Dedi Liu  Tiesong Hu  Chong‐Yu Xu 《水文研究》2017,31(1):69-89

The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydraulic modeling of flood pulses in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), UNESCO Cilento Global Geopark,southern Italy          下载免费PDF全文

Vittorio Bovolin  Albina Cuomo  Domenico Guida 《水文研究》2017,31(3):639-653

Karst systems provide water for domestic and industrial uses and for generating hydropower, but they can also create fluvial hazards, such as upstream back‐flooding and downstream karst flash‐flood events. However, these hazards are difficult to foresee due to the complex recharge‐discharge processes as well as the lack of information on the inside of the system, which has often not been completely surveyed by speleologists or explored by boreholes. To overcome these difficulties, hydro‐chemical data from the monitoring system in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), one of the first Experimental Karst Systems in southern Italy, were recorded and previously discussed. Based on shared background in flood karst hydraulic modeling, this paper describes the conceptual premises and rationale of a general‐purpose hydraulic model that is suitable both for the MBSKS and for other Mediterranean, multi‐recharge, mature, conduit‐dominated karst systems. To test the reliability of the model, simulations of time–space behavior and response are performed using natural and artificial flood pulses “as tracers”, considering a “pulse” as a significant variation in water quantity and/or quality. The results of the model explain the interactions between allogenic, autogenic, and anthropogenic recharges from differentiated sources and phreatic conduit systems. These results also clarify the overall response of karst springs at typical time scales of flood pulses. Table acronym name  相似文献