Intermediate to Long-term Estimation of Strong Earthquake Risk Areas in the Chinese Mainland Based on Geodesic Measurements     

Zhang Jing  Zhu Yiqing  Wu Yanqiang  Zhang Xi  Yang Guohua 《中国地震研究》2018,32(2):153-172

Based on previous research results, present-day crustal deformation and gravity fields in the Chinese mainland are analyzed using the GPS data, leveling, gravity and cross-fault deformations. We analyzed strain accumulation of the major faults, and identified locked or high strain accumulation segments. Combining the effects of large earthquakes in the study area, the long-term (decade) probability of large earthquakes in the Chinese mainland is estimated.  相似文献   

基于方差分量估计的多源InSAR数据自适应融合形变测量   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

敖萌  张路  廖明生  张丽 《地球物理学报》2020,63(8):2901-2911

近年来,合成孔径雷达干涉测量(Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar,InSAR)技术在地面沉降监测方面展现了巨大的应用潜力,但受其重访周期和一维形变测量能力的限制,仅利用单一轨道卫星观测数据很难揭示真实的地表形变特征及其演化规律.随着在轨运行的SAR卫星系统不断增加,使得融合相同时间段内覆盖同一区域的多源多轨道InSAR数据成为可能.然而目前普遍采用的多源InSAR数据融合方法均为针对大尺度形变监测设计,或者忽略南北向形变甚至水平形变,容易造成误判.为此,本文对经典小基线集(Small Baseline Subset, SBAS)时序InSAR分析方法进行改进,在其形变反演模型中加入东西向和南北向形变参数,采用方差分量估计方法解算多源观测数据验后方差,通过迭代精化确定权重矩阵,从而获得形变参数的最优估值.使用美国南加州地区的ALOS PALSAR和ENVISAT ASAR数据开展实验,利用南加州综合GPS网(SCIGN)位于研究区域内的9个站点观测数据进行验证,结果表明本文方法得到的融合形变测量结果在垂直向上能够准确反映地表形变波动,周期性与GPS观测比较一致;同时,融合得到的三维形变场显示南加州洛杉矶地区存在不可忽略的水平形变,东西向形变测量精度略高于南北向.因此,基于方差分量估计的多源InSAR融合方法在提高形变测量时间序列连续性的同时,能够更准确地反演研究区域三维形变特征.  相似文献   

Pre- and post-drill comparison of the Mount Elbert gas hydrate prospect, Alaska North Slope     

M.W. Lee  W.F. AgenaT.S. Collett  T.L. Inks 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2011,28(2):578-588

In 2006, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) completed a detailed analysis and interpretation of available 2-D and 3-D seismic data, along with seismic modeling and correlation with specially processed downhole well log data for identifying potential gas hydrate accumulations on the North Slope of Alaska. A methodology was developed for identifying sub-permafrost gas hydrate prospects within the gas hydrate stability zone in the Milne Point area. The study revealed a total of 14 gas hydrate prospects in this area.In order to validate the gas hydrate prospecting protocol of the USGS and to acquire critical reservoir data needed to develop a longer-term production testing program, a stratigraphic test well was drilled at the Mount Elbert prospect in the Milne Point area in early 2007. The drilling confirmed the presence of two prominent gas-hydrate-bearing units in the Mount Elbert prospect, and high quality well logs and core data were acquired. The post-drill results indicate pre-drill predictions of the reservoir thickness and the gas-hydrate saturations based on seismic and existing well data were 90% accurate for the upper unit (hydrate unit D) and 70% accurate for the lower unit (hydrate unit C), confirming the validity of the USGS approach to gas hydrate prospecting. The Mount Elbert prospect is the first gas hydrate accumulation on the North Slope of Alaska identified primarily on the basis of seismic attribute analysis and specially processed downhole log data. Post-drill well log data enabled a better constraint of the elastic model and the development of an improved approach to the gas hydrate prospecting using seismic attributes.  相似文献   

基于居民点密度的人口密度空间化   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

闫庆武  卞正富  张萍  王红 《地理与地理信息科学》2011,27(5):95-98

提出了一种基于居民点密度的人口密度空间化方法。以江苏省人口数据空间化为例,在采用核密度估计法得到江苏省镇(乡、街道)居民点密度后,运用基于居民点密度的人口密度空间化计算公式获得江苏省1 000m×1 000m的人口密度格网图,结果表明:江苏省人口分布的热点地区正是在建的三大都市圈(苏锡常都市圈、南京都市圈和徐州都市圈),其中苏锡常都市圈的人口分布呈现各向异性,而南京和徐州都市圈的人口分布则表现为各向同性;人口密度不仅取决于居民点密度,还与平均每个居民点的人口数密切相关,居民点密度大的区域的人口密度不一定大,居民点密度小的区域的人口密度也不一定小。  相似文献   

全球海洋人为碳储量估算及时空分布研究进展     

Huang Peng  Chen Liqi  Cai Minggang 《地球科学进展》2015,30(8):952-959

海洋是全球最大的碳汇,确定海洋中人为碳含量及其时空变化是一件具有挑战性的工作。就当前海洋人为碳含量确定方法、人为碳储量及其随时间变化进行综述总结。研究表明海洋仍然可以吸收并储藏大量的人为碳,但未来对于海洋吸收储藏人为碳的研究仍具有诸多不确定性。已有证据表明稳态海洋的概念不完全正确,需要在非稳态条件下重新定义人为碳并开展研究。同时需要积累更多的观测数据,采用包括观测和模式模拟等手段来研究不同时间尺度的人为碳的吸收和储藏过程。  相似文献   

基于大地形变测量的中国大陆中长期强震危险区研究     

张晶  祝意青  武艳强  张希  杨国华 《地震》2018,38(1):1-16

应用GPS、 水准、 重力和跨断层形变观测资料, 在以往研究成果的基础上, 分析中国大陆现今地壳形变场、 重力场变化形态, 分析主要活动断裂带应变积累状态, 识别强闭锁、 高应变积累段, 结合大震对区域应变积累的影响, 估计未来10年尺度中国大陆地区可能发生大地震的危险区域。  相似文献   

Exploring hyperspectral bands and estimation indices for leaf nitrogen accumulation in wheat     

Xia Yao  Yan ZhuYongChao Tian  Wei FengWeiXing Cao 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2010

Hyperspectral sensing can provide an effective means for fast and non-destructive estimation of leaf nitrogen (N) status in crop plants. The objectives of this study were to design a new method to extract hyperspectral spectrum information, to explore sensitive spectral bands, suitable bandwidth and best vegetation indices based on precise analysis of ground-based hyperspectral information, and to develop regression models for estimating leaf N accumulation per unit soil area (LNA, g N m⁻²) in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Three field experiments were conducted with different N rates and cultivar types in three consecutive growing seasons, and time-course measurements were taken on canopy hyperspectral reflectance and LNA under the various treatments. Then, normalized difference spectral indices (NDSI) and ratio spectral indices (RSI) based on the original spectrum and the first derivative spectrum were constructed within the range of 350–2500 nm, and their relationships with LNA were quantified. The results showed that both LNA and canopy hyperspectral reflectance in wheat changed with varied N rates, with consistent patterns across different cultivars and seasons. The sensitive spectral bands for LNA existed mainly within visible and near infrared regions. The best spectral indices for estimating LNA in wheat were found to be NDSI (R₈₆₀, R₇₂₀), RSI (R₉₉₀, R₇₂₀), NDSI (FD₇₃₆, FD₅₂₆) and RSI (FD₇₂₅, FD₅₁₆), and the regression models based on the above four spectral indices were formulated as Y = 26.34x^1.887, Y = 5.095x − 6.040, Y = 0.609 e^3.008x and Y = 0.388x^1.260, respectively, with R² greater than 0.81. Furthermore, expanding the bandwidth of NDSI (R₈₆₀, R₇₂₀) and RSI (R₉₉₀, R₇₂₀) from 1 nm to 100 nm at 1 nm interval produced the LNA monitoring models with similar performance within about 33 nm and 23 nm bandwidth, respectively, over which the statistical parameters of the models became less stable. From testing of the derived equations, the model for LNA estimation on NDSI (R₈₆₀, R₇₂₀), RSI (R₉₉₀, R₇₂₀), NDSI (FD₇₃₆, FD₅₂₆) and RSI (FD₇₂₅, FD₅₁₆) gave R² over 0.79 with more satisfactory performance than previously reported models and physical models in wheat. It can be concluded that the present hyperspectral parameters of NDSI (R₈₆₀, R₇₂₀), RSI (R₉₉₀, R₇₂₀), NDSI (FD₇₃₆, FD₅₂₆) and RSI (FD₇₂₅, FD₅₁₆) can be reliably used for estimating LNA in winter wheat.  相似文献   

Estimation from incomplete data files based on magnitude-frequency relation for earthquakes     

G. R. Dargahi-Noubary  Mehdi Razzaghi 《Mathematical Geology》1990,22(4):513-521

The problem of incorporating the available seismological information provided by the major events of the historical catalog with those for the short period of instrumental data is investigated. Assuming that the frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg and Richter is valid for both periods, an estimation procedure for the main parameter of this law and the rate of earthquake occurrence for historical period is presented. Application of the proposed method is demonstrated, using both real and simulated data. An extension to allow for variable quality of complete data with different magnitude values is also included.  相似文献   

线性向量半参数模型与标量半参数模型最小二乘估计的比较     

张松林  张昆  王新洲 《大地测量与地球动力学》2006,26(4):10-13

研究了最小二乘准则下线性向量半参数模型的核估计、近邻估计及样条估计3种估计方法,分析了向量半参数模型与标量半参数模型在这几种估计方法中的差异。  相似文献   

专项气象服务经济效益的评价理论与技术     

蔡久忠  徐芬 《成都信息工程学院学报》1997,(4)

当前，由于缺乏对气象服务投入量与产出量准确而完整的统计，要对气象服务的各种经济效益作出总体评价是困难的。然而，在专项气象服务中，却不乏原始、完整而准确的资料。作者从此出发，讨论了专项气象服务经济效益评价的理论。并通过实地调查，以彭州市气象局几项专项气象服务为例探讨了评价技术。  相似文献