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1.
孙超  陈文  李计生  李斌 《水文》2018,38(2):53-58
流域生态健康评价是流域管理、水资源开发利用、生态保护的重要决策依据,也是促进流域社会经济可持续发展的重要措施。在确定石羊河流域生态健康评价指标体系和等级标准的基础上,采用组合赋权法确定评价指标的权重,建立了改进集对模型评价方法。定量评价结果表明,石羊河流域上游、中游、下游生态健康分别为基本健康、亚健康、病态等状态。  相似文献   
2.
The Huya Fault, located in the steep topographic boundary of the Minshan Mountains in the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau, has documented many major earthquakes such as the 1630(M=6 3/4), 1973 Huanglong(MS=6.5) and the 1976 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake swarm(MS=7.2, 6.7, 7.2). While its activity remains unclear because of lacking Quaternary sediments. In the past few decades, there have been significant advances in understanding the relationship between bedrock channel landscapes and active tectonics, indicating that the bedrock fluvial features can well record the tectonic activity. Many studies reveal that tectonism is the primary factor of landscape evolution in tectonically active regions, and the erosional landscapes can be used to reveal tectonic signals on timescales of 103~106 years. The Huya Fault crosses the Fujiang drainage basin, making it suitable for the study of bedrock rivers and tectonic uplift in the eastern margin of Minshan. In this study, we calculate the geomorphologic indeices(hillslope, local relief, normalized steepness indices and hypsometric integral) on the basis of the digital elevation model(DEM) SRTM-1. For better understanding the tectonic activity along this fault, we derive some small catchments on the two sides of the Huya fault to analyze the differences of average steepness indices and hypsometric integral. Combining with field observations, lithology, precipitation and modern erosion rates, this study suggests that tectonic activity is the controlling factor of geomorphology in the eastern margin of the Minshan Mountains. We use focal mechanism solutions, GPS data and geomorphic evidence to explore the relationship between the geomorphologic indices of the Fujiang drainage and activity characteristics of the Huya fault. Our results suggest that:(1) The Fujiang drainage basin is in a steady state. The characteristics of the knickpoints indicate that they are mainly controlled by the locally resistant substrate. (2) The suggested value of the geomorphologic index on the west side of the Huya fault is generally larger than on the east side, showing differential tectonic uplift rates across the fault. (3) The difference of the geomorphologic index of the small catchments on both sides of the Huya fault is gradually increasing from north to south along this fault, in accordance with that the north and south segments of the Huya fault are dominated by strike-and reverse-slip, respectively.  相似文献   
3.
Despite threats emanating from the influence of climate and non-climate forcing on the barrier island coastal region of southwestern Nigeria, the extent of the coastal erosion is poorly understood. We report evidence of coastal erosion and sediment accumulation in the region over a 34-year period (1973–2017), using Landsat imagery at intervals of approximately six years. Landsat image corrections and various water-extraction algorithms were used to systematically delineate coastal erosion and accumulation in the area. The region was subdivided into western and eastern subregions separated by Lagos Harbour. In the west, erosion took place during the periods 1973–1979, 1979–1984, 1990–1999 and 2005–2011, whereas in the east, erosion occurred during 1973–1979, 1990–1999 and 1999–2005. Coastal sediment accumulation occurred in the east during 1979–1984, 1984–1990, 2005–2011 and 2011–2017, whereas gains in the west occurred during 1984–1990, 1999–2005 and 2011–2017. The study revealed substantial net erosion of 1 228.1 ha in the region as a whole, over the full period. Sediment accumulation accompanying the coastal erosion appears to be linked to longshore drift. Erosion between 1973 and 2011 was probably attributable to climate change (storms and tidal conditions), longshore drift, the inflow and outflow of water at Lagos Harbour, coastal morphology and, possibly, human impacts. However, the coastal changes between 2011 and 2017 were more obviously associated with human activities, such as development of the Eko Atlantic construction project. Coastal surveillance, together with the use of environmentally sensitive protective measures, could possibly help to reduce coastal erosion in the region. Careful coastal management practices, including artificial nourishing and the installation of resilient structures (e.g. seawalls), should be undertaken to protect human settlements that are already at risk from sea-level rise.  相似文献   
4.
In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature to calculate the temperature indices upon which temperature-based derivatives are written. We propose a seasonal mean and volatility model that describes the daily average temperature behavior using the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We also use higher order continuous-time autoregressive process with lag 3 for modeling the time evolution of the temperatures after removing trend and seasonality. Our model is fitted to 11 years of data recorded, in the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2015, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorological Services Agency. The analytical approximation formulas are used to price heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) futures. The suggested model is analytically tractable for derivation of explicit prices for CDD and HDD futures and option. The price of the CDD future is calculated, using analytical approximation formulas. Numerical examples are presented to indicate the accuracy of the method. The results show that our model performs better to predict CDD indices.  相似文献   
5.
This study integrated environmental variables together with high spectral resolution WorldView-2 imagery to detect and map Thaumastocoris peregrinus damage in Eucalypt plantation forests in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The WorldView-2 bands, vegetation indices and environmental variables were entered separately into PLS regression models to predict T. peregrinus damage. The datasets were then integrated to test the collective strength in predicting T. peregrinus damage. Important variables were identified by variable importance (VIP) scores and were re-entered into a PLS regression model. The VIP model was then extrapolated to map the severity of damage and predicted T. peregrinus damage with an R2 value of 0.71 and a RMSE of 3.26% on an independent test dataset. The red edge and near-infrared bands of the WorldView-2 sensor together with the temperature dataset were identified as important variables in predicting T. peregrinus damage. The results indicate the potential of integrating WorldView-2 data and environmental variables to improve the mapping and monitoring of insect outbreaks in plantation forests. The result is critical for plantation health monitoring using a new sensor which contains important vegetation wavelengths.  相似文献   
6.
从目标函数的线性化出发,采用奇异值分解法求广义逆矩阵并适当加阻尼,用迭代法直接解超定方程实现改进广义逆矩阵反演。进一步从理论与实际结合上阐明改进广义逆矩阵反演法的灵活、稳定,它涵盖了多种反演方法的优点,又具有自身特点,在实际应中适应性强,并能提供一些辅助信息,可更好地评价解释结果。  相似文献   
7.
近年来,异常气候事件的频发对人类的生活环境和经济发展带来严重负影响。气象学家研究表明:海洋气候异常对陆地气候异常事件的发生具有重要的诱发作用,因此,对海陆气候间的内在关联机制进行深入挖掘具有重要研究价值。本文提出了一种关联规则挖掘方法,以探索单一海洋气候指数与陆地异常气候事件间存在的关联。首先,针对陆地气候要素,采用顾及空间邻近关系的层次聚类方法进行有效气候分区,通过对各层分区结果进行相关统计分析得到有效的各区域气候序列;然后,进行顾及多重约束进行时序关联规则挖掘,以探索海陆气候要素间的关联机制;最后,通过实际算例分析得到的各气候指数与我国陆地区域异常降水事件间的关联机制结果,与实际情况高度吻合。  相似文献   
8.
Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
9.
连续降温对大菱鲆成鱼代谢机能的影响   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
为了探寻连续降温对大菱鲆(Scophthalmus maximus)成鱼血清、肝脏及肌肉能量代谢等指标的影响,作者将大菱鲆从正常养殖水温18℃快速、连续降温至1℃,并在18℃、13℃、8℃、5℃、3℃和1℃共计6个温度点取血采样,分别测定血清中的总蛋白(TP)、白蛋白(ALB)、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL-C)、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)、甘油三酯(TG)、总胆固醇(TC)、血糖(GLU)以及肝脏中的糖原和肌肉中的乳酸等指标。结果发现,随着温度降低,大菱鲆的血清TP浓度呈先下降后升高的趋势,各实验组与对照组无显著差异(P0.05),但在13℃和3℃之间出现显著性差异(P0.05);血清ALB浓度则呈现升高趋势,在3℃时显著高于1℃(P0.05);血清TC浓度呈现升高趋势,且3℃时显著高于18℃(P0.05);GLU浓度呈先降低后升高趋势,且8℃、5℃、3℃实验组浓度显著高于其余实验组(P0.05);尿素浓度呈先降低后升高再降低趋势,且8℃时显著高于1℃(P0.05);肝糖原浓度呈先降低后升高趋势,且8、5、3℃实验组浓度显著高于其余实验组(P0.05);肌肉中乳酸含量呈先升高后降低趋势,且5℃时显著高于18℃(P0.05);其余指标则无显著性差异(P0.05)。结果表明:当温度在18~8℃时,降温对大菱鲆体内代谢影响不大;当温度降到8~3℃时,大菱鲆体内开始出现应激反应;当温度继续降低至1℃时,大菱鲆体内的各种代谢基本处于停滞状态。综合分析各温度下的代谢指标得出结论,3~1℃温度区间与大菱鲆的生态冰温点比较接近,可以在此温度区间附近进一步进行无水保活的探索,在保证大菱鲆无水运输可行性的基础上优化经济成本。  相似文献   
10.
1961-2010年西北干旱区极端降水指数的时空变化分析   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
结合绝对阈值和百分位法定义极端降水事件的优点,提出了一种更灵敏的检测极端降水事件的方法. 该方法不仅能检测出常用降水指数无法检测到的降水量稀少地区尤其干旱区的极端降水事件,同时也能过滤掉其检测到的降水量丰富地区的虚假极端降水事件. 此方法首次被应用于统计1961年1月至2010年2月西北干旱区72个气象站点的年和季节的极端降水指数(大降水和强降水指数),并分析了极端降水指数的时间变化趋势及其空间分布特征. 结果表明:西北干旱区春(3-5月)、秋(9-11月)、冬(12月至次年2月)三季极端降水指数无显著(P>0.05)变化趋势,夏季(6-8月)大降水的频率和降水量以及大降水降水量占总降水量的比重都显著增加;新疆地区极端降水指数为增加趋势的区域基本都分布在海拔较高(约海拔1 000 m以上)的地区;西北干旱区东部极端降水指数变化趋势的空间分布有明显的季节差异,表现为夏、秋季大部分地区为增加趋势,冬、春季大部分地区为减小趋势.  相似文献   
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