Adaptive fuzzy controller design for dynamic positioning system of vessels     

《Applied Ocean Research》2015

This paper develops an adaptive fuzzy controller for the dynamic positioning (DP) system of vessels with unknown dynamic model parameters and unknown time-varying environmental disturbances. The controller is designed by combining the adaptive fuzzy system with the vectorial backstepping method. An adaptive fuzzy system is employed to approximate the uncertain term induced by unknown dynamic model parameters and unknown time-varying environmental disturbances. It is theoretically proved that the proposed adaptive fuzzy DP controller can make the vessel be maintained at the desired values of its position and heading with arbitrary accuracy, while guaranteeing the uniform ultimate boundedness of all signals in the closed-loop DP control system of vessels. Simulation studies with comparisons on a supply vessel are carried out, and the results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.  相似文献   

A framework for the seismic assessment of existing masonry buildings accounting for different sources of uncertainty          下载免费PDF全文

M. Rota  A. Penna  G. Magenes 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(7):1045-1066

The current formulation of Eurocode 8 Part 3 and the Italian building code for the seismic assessment of existing buildings accounts for epistemic (knowledge‐based) uncertainties by means of the identification of knowledge levels with associated values of the so‐called confidence factors, applied only as a reduction of material strengths. This formulation does not always produce consistent results and it does not explicitly account for other sources of uncertainty. The paper proposes a probabilistic methodology for the quantification of appropriately defined factors, allowing consideration of the different sources of uncertainty involved in the seismic assessment of masonry buildings by means of nonlinear static analyses. This simple approach, also including an alternative formulation of the confidence factors related with material properties, allows to obtain results which are consistent with the acquired level of knowledge and correctly account for the different sources of uncertainty without requiring to carry out any stochastic nonlinear analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Empirically-based modeling of spatial sampling uncertainties associated with rainfall measurements by rain gauges     

Gabriele Villarini  Witold F. Krajewski 《Advances in water resources》2008

In the quantitative evaluation of radar-rainfall products (maps), rain gauge data are generally used as a good approximation of the true ground rainfall. However, rain gauges provide accurate measurements for a specific location, while radar estimates represent areal averages. Because these sampling discrepancies could introduce noise into the comparisons between these two sensors, they need to be accounted for. In this study, the spatial sampling error is defined as the ratio between the measurements by a single rain gauge and the true areal rainfall, defined as the value obtained by averaging the measurements by an adequate number of gauges within a pixel. Using a non-parametric scheme, the authors characterize its full statistical distribution for several spatial (4, 16 and 36 km²) and temporal (15 min and hourly) scales.  相似文献   

Uncertainty representation of ocean fronts based on fuzzy-rough set theory   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Cunjin Xue  Chenghu Zhou  Fenzhen Su  Dandan Zhang 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2008,7(2):131-136

Analysis of ocean fronts' uncertainties indicates that they result from indiseemibility of their spatial position and fuzzi-ness of their intensity. In view of this, a flow hierarchy for uncertainty representation of ocean fronts is proposed on the basis of fuzzy-rough set theory. Firstly, raster scanning and blurring are carried out on an ocean front, and the upper and lower approximate sets, the indiscernible relation in fuzzy-rough theories and related operators in fuzzy set theories are adopted to represent its uncer-tainties, then they are classified into three sets: with members one hundred pereent belonging to the ocean front, belonging to the ocean front's edge and definitely not belonging to the ocean front. Finally, the approximate precision and roughness degree are util-ized to evaluate the ocean front's degree of uncertainties and the precision of the representation. It has been proven that the method is not only capable of representing ocean fronts' uncertainties, but also provides a new theory and method for uncertainty representation of other oceanic phenomena.  相似文献   

The Need for a Common Framework for Collection and Interpretation of Data in Platinum-Group Element Geochemistry     

Iain McDonald 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》1998,22(1):85-91

Platinum-group element (PGE) concentrations and the distribution of the metals in rocks serve as important tracers of mantle processes, as well as extraterrestrial input into crustal environments, but common standards regarding the gathering and presentation of PGE data have never been formalized. Effective modelling assumes that concentration data are within acceptable levels of precision, yet the practices used in some studies to determine precision do not adequately assess precision and, as a result, the uncertainties on PGE concentrations and PGE ratios are sometimes consistently underestimated. This article argues that replicate analyses of unknowns must be adopted more widely in order to overcome this problem. Related to the issue of uncertainties on PGE concentrations, is the issue of uncertainty associated with normalisation. Arguments have recently been put forward as to the significance of small positive or negative anomalies on chondrite nor-malized plots. At least four CI chondrite PGE datasets (of varying age and quality) are currently used for normalisation and significantly different patterns can be derived simply by using one dataset rather than another. This article is intended to open a debate within the PGE research community by asking whether more consistency needs to be applied in PGE analysis and in the subsequent interpretation of data. A rigorous assessment of the real uncertainties on PGE concentrations and the adoption of a standard CI chondrite PGE dataset, in order to eliminate bias from normalisation, are suggested to be central to this.  相似文献   

基于时空不确定性的对流尺度集合预报效果评估检验   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

马申佳  陈超辉  智协飞  何宏让  吴丹 《气象学报》2018,76(4):578-589

针对对流尺度天气系统的高度非线性特征和高分辨率模式预报结果存在时、空不确定性现象,以及当前邻域概率法主要考虑高分辨率预报结果的空间位移误差,而不能有效解决预报结果存在时间超前与滞后问题,将时间因素引入到邻域概率法中,结合一次强飑线过程进行对流尺度集合预报试验,并基于改进后的新型邻域概率法与分数技巧评分,对降水预报进行了不同时、空尺度的效果评估检验。结果表明:（1）邻域集合概率法和概率匹配平均法在极端降水的分数技巧评分远高于传统集合平均,弥补了集合平均对极端降水预报能力偏低的缺陷。（2）对于此类飑线过程的对流尺度天气系统而言,邻域半径为15—45 km的空间尺度能够改善降水位移误差的空间不确定性,并使其预报效果达到最优,其中15—30 km的邻域半径对于尺度更小的大量级降水事件预报能力更强。（3）对流尺度降水预报考虑时间尺度与降水强度存在着对应关系,不同时间尺度可以捕获到不同量级降水的时间不确定性。同时,时间尺度与空间尺度对于降水预报效果的影响是相互关联的。（4）改进的邻域概率法能够同时体现高分辨率模式预报结果在对流尺度降水事件上存在的时、空不确定性,实现了对流尺度降水在时、空尺度上的综合评估,并能为不同量级降水提供与其时、空尺度相匹配的概率预报结果。   相似文献   

Control of syntectonic erosion and sedimentation on kinematic evolution of a multidecollement fold and thrust zone: Analogue modeling of folding in the southern subandean of Bolivia     

《Journal of Structural Geology》2016

Several analogue modeling studies have been conducted during the past fifteen years with the aim to discuss the effects of sedimentation and erosion on Foreland Fold and Thrust Belt, among which a few have analyzed these processes at kilometric scale (Malavieille et al., 1993; Nalpas et al., 1999; Barrier et al., 2002; Pichot and Nalpas, 2009). The influence of syn-deformation sedimentation and erosion on the structural evolution of FFTB has been clearly demonstrated. Here, we propose to go further in this approach by the study of a more complex system with a double decollement level. The natural study case is the Bolivian sub-Andean thrust and fold belt, which present all the required criteria, such as the double decollement level. A set of analogue models performed under a CT-scan have been used to test the influence of several parameters on a fold and thrust belt system, among which: (i) the spatial variation of the sediment input, (ii) the spatial variation of the erosion rate, (iii) the relative distribution of sedimentation between foreland and hinterland. These experiments led to the following observations:

• 1. The upper decollement level acts as a decoupling level in case of increased sedimentation rate: it results in the verticalization of the shallower part (above the upper decollement level), while the deeper parts are not impacted.
• 2. Similarly, the increase of the erosion rate involves the uplift of the deeper part (below the upper decollement level), whereas the shallower parts are not impacted.
• 3. A high sedimentation rate in the foreland involves a fault and fold vergence reversal, followed by a back-thrusting of the shallower part.
• 4. A high sedimentation rate in the hinterland favours thrust development toward the foreland in the shallower parts.

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Seismic hazard analysis in zones of time and space interdependence: An application to S?o Miguel Island, Azores     

C. S. Oliveira  A. C. Costa  V. H. Forjaz  J. C. Nunes 《Natural Hazards》1984,3(1):15-29

The Azores Islands are located in the mid-Atlantic region near the triple junction where the Euro-Asiatic-African-American plates join together. Seismic activity in the area is very high, as can be observed either from historical events since the fifteenth century, from present day microseismicity, and from direct and indirect measurements of recent tectonic deformation. Volcanic activity is also present throughout the region.All available information, even data exhibiting low quality, was used to develop hazard models of São Miguel Island. Source zones were established based on both the global tectonic behaviour of the region and on the local active fault structures. Recurrence laws for São Miguel Island, for which historical information seemed quite incomplete, were obtained from the large events in the entire archipelago and from their remarkable pattern of time and space dependence, and complimented by information on long-term fault deformation (for the longer recurrence periods) and on high precision instrumental network (for the very short recurrence periods).Attenuation laws were derived from data on events felt and/or recorded in the Island.Hazard maps were obtained through a modified version of McGuire's algorithm for several geometries of source areas and results compared with the maximum observed intensity of historical events.Abstract presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission held in Sofia, 1988.  相似文献   

CERES-Wheat模型在我国小麦区的应用效果及误差来源   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

熊伟 《应用气象学报》2009,20(1):88-94

气候模型与作物模型耦合是评价未来气候变化对作物生产影响的常用方法之一, 但当两者结合时, 存在着空间和时间尺度差异问题, 将作物模型升尺度到区域是解决该差异的一种方法。将CERES-Wheat模型升尺度进行区域模拟, 利用区域校准后的CERES-Wheat模型, 模拟了1981—2000年全国各网格小麦产量, 与同期农调队调查产量相比较, 以探讨CERES-Wheat模型在我国小麦区的模拟效果及误差来源。结果表明:全国小麦产量的区域模拟值与农调队调查产量的相对均方根误差为27.9%, 符合度为0.75, 全国59.2%的模拟网格相对均方根误差在30%以内, 其中相对均方根误差小于15%的占26.3%;各区的效果不同, 种植面积最大的小麦种植生态2区, 模拟效果最好。总体来说, CERES-Wheat的区域模拟, 可以反映产量变化规律, 能为宏观决策提供相应信息, 尤其是在主产区; 但区域模拟中还存在一系列误差, 今后还需进一步研究。  相似文献