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China is situated in the region of the prevailing East Asian monsoon, which has obvious seasonal variation. There exists a close relation between the long-distance northward and southward movement of army-worms and the seasonal variation of the general circulation in the lower atmosphere over East Asia. So according to the data of moths and the notes of meteorological observation, we put emphasis on analysing the problems of the transmigration direction, height, limits, ascending and descending condition of armyworms and moths base in this country, and then draw the transmigration route diagram. 相似文献
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赵圣菊 《海洋学报(英文版)》1984,3(3):349-354
So far, no literature has ever reported the prediction of plant diseases and insects outbreak by using sea surface temperature. This article aims at setting up a long-range prediction model of the outbreak quantity and period for the first-generation armyworm by using the surface water temperature of the North Pacific as predictor. Our preliminary study has yielded a desirable result, which adds a new approach of modelling in the prediction of armyworm outbreak. 相似文献
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粘虫是一种暴食性害虫。在我国黄淮流域,第一代粘虫于4—5月间危害冬小麦。影响粘虫发生量和发生期的因素很多,过程错综复杂,预测方法也是多种的,但以海温预测病虫发生,尚未见到有文献记载。第一代粘虫的发生与消失,和天气气候条件(尤 相似文献
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用海温预报第一代粘虫发生量和发生期的初步探讨 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文用北太平洋海面水温,对组建第一代粘虫发生量和发生期长期预测模式,进行了初步尝试,结果较好,可为粘虫测报增添一条新的模拟研制途径。 相似文献
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影响粘虫发生的外界因素很多,因此预测粘虫发生期的因子和方法必然也是多样的。本文中用前期海温作为预报因子,采用逐步回归方法,通过电子计算机建立了二代粘虫发生区一代成虫迁入期预测模式。其方法和结果如下:1.以二代粘虫发生区一代成虫迁入期为预报对象。2.对一代成虫迁入前期的上一年1月至当年5月北太平洋逐月海面水温资料进行了相关分析。各预报量都得到了几十个高相关海区,以此作为预报因子。3.用它们建立的预测模式,都得到比较好的结果。这说明用前期海温直接预报粘虫发生期是可行的。 相似文献
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With the aim to establish an "optimum" regression, an attempt is made through stepwise regression analysis to construct medium- and long-range models for forecasting the amount of migrants of the first-generation adults of armyworm into the outbreaking area of the second-generation armyworm in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia by applying precedent data of meteorological elements, general circulation features and insect pest situation. The formulas established are found to be rather satisfactory, which add a new approach to the simulation prediction of the armyworm. 相似文献
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粘虫是暴食性农作害虫,是《全国农业发展纲要》中规定要消灭的危害对象之一。 在我国,二代粘虫发生区的范围很广,包括东北、西北、西南等大片地区,在6月中至7月为幼虫盛发期,对麦、粟、玉米、高粱、稻等作物都可造成危害,在大发生年可以把作物的茎杆和叶片吃光,造成颗粒无收。目前,关于病虫发生程度的预测,还以单站短期预测为多,大范围发生程度的长期预测尚不多见。所以,准确地做出二代粘虫 相似文献
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