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1.
针对电离层总电子含量(TEC)数据非线性、非平稳的特点,在自回归移动平均(ARMA)模型的基础上,结合经验小波变换(EWT),提出一种组合的短期电离层预测方法。采用IGS提供的电离层TEC格网数据进行实验,通过对比分析可知,相较于单一ARMA模型,本文组合模型在太阳活动低年和太阳活动高年5 d内的平均相对精度分别提高4.8%和2.8%,前1 d内组合模型的平均相对精度分别提高7%和6.1%。  相似文献   
2.
生态安全越来越受到社会不同层面的关注,生态网络研究成为当前学术热点.以地理国情数据为主要数据源,利用地理空间分析技术,识别重庆市主城区的生态源地,提取生态廊道,确定生态节点,分析生态网络空间结构,以期为重庆市主城区的生态保护与管理工作提供参考.  相似文献   
3.
疫灾是人类灾害链网中的顶级灾害。利用历史疫灾史料,建立疫灾时间序列,使用历史断面分析、因子相关分析、时间序列分析等方法,对中国过去2720年疫灾流行的时空特征及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明:① 中国疫灾流行的频度和强度有长期上升趋势,温暖期形成疫灾低谷,寒冷期形成疫灾高峰。② 中国疫灾流行总体以夏、秋季为主,但有阶段性差异,15世纪50年代以后,由于疫病种类增多,疫灾频度提高,疫灾的季节性差异逐渐不显著。③ 中国疫灾波动周期主要有620~610 a、320~310 a、230~220 a、170 a、90 a等,它们大都是12 a或11.2 a的倍数,反映了“十二地支”周期的存在和太阳黑子活动对疫灾周期的重大影响。④ 过去近3000年里,中国累积的疫灾广泛度为93.51%,疫灾厚度达16.86层,东南半壁的疫灾比西北半壁的频繁得多、严重得多。⑤ 中国疫灾区域拓展与土地开发同步,疫灾重心变迁受经济重心的牵引,南宋以前由北向南迁移,南宋以后由东向西迁移;外来疫病输入对疫灾分布格局产生重大影响。⑥ 疫灾流行既是自然生态现象,也是社会文化现象,疫灾时空分布变迁反映人地关系变迁,人口稠密区、交通沿线区、都城周边区、自然疫源区、灾害频发区都是疫灾多发区。⑦ 地理环境分异奠定疫灾空间分异,高温、高湿、低海拔地区疫灾易于流行;自然灾害对疫灾具有诱发作用,灾害频繁区也是疫灾频发区,灾害频繁期也是疫灾频繁期;气候变迁影响疫灾波动,寒冷期疫灾多发,温暖期疫灾少发;人口增加带来的土地开发和人地关系紧张,加剧疫灾的流行;疫灾与战争如影随形,战乱频繁期也是疫灾频繁期。  相似文献   
4.
Hydrothermal vent incidence was once thought to be proportional to the spreading rate of the mid-ocean ridges (MORs). However, more and more studies have shown that the ultraslow-spreading ridges (e.g., Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR)) have a relatively higher incidence of hydrothermal venting fields. The Qiaoyue Seamount (52.1°E) is located at the southern side of segment #25 of the SWIR, to the west of the Gallieni transform fault. The Chinese Dayang cruises conducted eight preliminary deep-towed surveys of hydrothermal activity in the area during 2009 and 2018. Here, through comprehensive analyses of the video and photos obtained by the deep-towed platforms, rock samples, and water column turbidity anomalies, a high-temperature, ultramafic-hosted hydrothermal system is predicted on the northern flank of the Qiaoyue Seamount. We propose that this hydrothermal system is most likely to be driven by gabboric intrusions. Efficient hydrothermal circulation channels appear against a backdrop of high rock permeability related to the detachment fault.  相似文献   
5.
Macrophyte community diversity and composition respond to ecosystem conservation and local environmental factors. In this study, we developed a multidimensional diversity framework for macrophyte communities, including the taxonomic and functional alpha and beta diversity. We used the framework to explore the relationships among water level regimes and these diversity parameters in a case study of China's Baiyangdian Lake. Analysis of indicators of hydrologic alteration divided the water level from 1959 to 2019 into four regimes (dry, <6.42 m; low, 6.42–7.23 m; medium, 7.23–8.19 m; high, >8.19 m). Alpha and beta diversity were significantly higher in the medium regime than in the low and high regimes. Redundancy analysis indicated that the maximum water depth significantly affected taxonomic alpha diversity, and total nitrogen (TN) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) concentration significantly affected functional alpha diversity, respectively. Mantel tests showed that TN, Secchi depth (SD), and water depth in the high water level regime significantly increased the total beta diversity and turnover components. TN was the main factor that increased total taxonomic beta diversity. Water level regime mainly influenced interspecific relationships by changing the TN and COD concentration. The water level should be maintained between the medium and high water level regimes to promote restoration of the macrophyte community and improve ecosystem stability. The biodiversity evaluation framework would provide a deeper insight into the hydrological process management for restoration of aquatic macrophyte communities in shallow lakes.  相似文献   
6.
The source and hydrochemical makeup of a stream reflects the connectivity between rainfall, groundwater, the stream, and is reflected to water quantity and quality of the catchment. However, in a semi-arid, thick, loess covered catchment, temporal variation of stream source and event associated behaviours are lesser known. Thus, the isotopic and chemical hydrographs in a widely distributed, deep loess, semi-arid catchment of the northern Chinese Loess Plateau were characterized to determine the source and hydrochemical behaviours of the stream during intra-rainfall events. Rainfall and streamflow were sampled during six hydrologic events coupled with measurements of stream baseflow and groundwater. The deuterium isotope (2H), major ions (Cl, SO42−, NO3, Ca2+, K+, Mg2+, and Na+) were evaluated in water samples obtained during rainfall events. Temporal variation of 2H and Cl measured in the groundwater and stream baseflow prior to rainfall was similar; however, the isotope compositions of the streamflow fluctuated significantly and responded quickly to rainfall events, likely due to an infiltration excess, overland dominated surface runoff during torrential rainfall events. Time source separation using 2H demonstrated greater than 72% on average, the stream composition was event water during torrential rainfall events, with the proportion increasing with rainfall intensity. Solutes concentrations in the stream had loglinear relationships with stream discharge, with an outling anomaly with an example of an intra-rainfall event on Oct. 24, 2015. Stream Cl behaved nonconservative during rainfall events, temporal variation of Cl indicated a flush and washout at the onset of small rainfall events, a dilution but still high concentration pattern in high discharge and old water dominated in regression flow period. This study indicates rainfall intensity affects runoff responses in a semi-arid catchment, and the stored water in the thick, loess covered areas was less connected with stream runoff. Solute transport may threaten water quality in the area, requiring further analysis of the performance of the eco-restoration project.  相似文献   
7.
胶东地区是典型的剪切带型金矿集中区,精确厘定该地区控矿剪切带的活动时代,可为探讨剪切带与金矿成因关系提供关键的时限约束,并且对矿床成矿模式的建立具有至关重要的意义。大量矿床地质证据显示胶东地区控矿剪切带中脆性变形活动对金矿体的形成具有直接影响,但其脆性变形时代尚不十分清楚。据此,本文在详细研究金矿体赋存特征的基础上,系统选取胶东焦家、玲珑、邓格庄、乳山这四个金矿区控矿剪切带断层泥中白云母进行40Ar-39Ar年代学研究。定年结果显示,胶东地区焦家剪切带、招平剪切带以及牟乳剪切带的脆性变形时代分别为110.3±1.5Ma、122.8±1.7Ma、119.6±1.2Ma~115.8±1.4Ma。其中焦家剪切带的脆性变形时代明显晚于招平和牟乳剪切带,可能代表了焦家蚀变岩型矿化形成后易遭受后期的构造叠加。综合胶东各金矿区控矿剪切带变形时代、岩体侵位时代、成矿时代及剪切带活动特征和矿体产出特征,本文认为在多期岩体侵位以及控矿剪切带递进变形过程中,剪切带韧性变形区中由高压流体作用产生的同期脆性破裂可形成脉型矿化,如乳山金矿;而在脆-韧性和脆性变形区中发生的大规模脆性变形可导致脉型和蚀变岩型矿化的形成,如玲珑、邓格庄和焦家金矿。但随着剪切带的递进变形和隆升剥蚀,后期多期次的脆性构造变形叠加,可导致多种矿化类型出现在同一构造部位,如焦家金矿中石英脉型和蚀变岩型矿化。  相似文献   
8.
利用RHtest软件结合台站元数据对广州1908—2019年平均气温进行非均一性检验和订正,结果显示在1912、1928、1942、1988、1995、2004和2010年有7个显著的非均一间断点,订正后升温速率为1.39℃/(100 a),较订正前显著增加,具有准50 a和准3 a的显著周期。运用DB16正交小波分析其多时间尺度变化特征,结果显示方差贡献最大的是趋势分量,其次是准3 a和准6 a周期分量。趋势分量从20世纪40年代开始呈现持续的升温趋势;20世纪80年代中期至20世纪末的快速增暖是准50 a和准20 a周期分量的上升期叠加于趋势分量的结果;1998—2014年增暖停滞特征是准50 a、准20 a和准10 a这3个年代际周期分量的降温位相叠加在趋势分量上引起的。  相似文献   
9.
Over the past decades, sea ice in the polar regions has been significantly affecting local and even hemispheric climate through a positive ice albedo feedback mechanism. The role of fast ice, as opposed to drift ice, has not been well-studied due to its relatively small coverage over the earth. In this paper, the optical properties and surface energy balance of land fast ice in spring are studied using in situ observations in Barrow, Alaska. The results show that the albedo of the fast ice varied between 0.57 and 0.85 while the transmittance increased from 1.3×10?3 to 4.1×10?3 during the observation period. Snowfall and air temperature affected the albedo and absorbance of sea ice, but the transmittance had no obvious relationship with precipitation or snow cover. Net solar shortwave radiation contributes to the surface energy balance with a positive 99.2% of the incident flux, with sensible heat flux for the remaining 0.8%. Meanwhile, the ice surface loses energy through the net longwave radiation by 18.7% of the total emission, while the latent heat flux accounts for only 0.1%. Heat conduction is also an important factor in the overall energy budget of sea ice, contributing 81.2% of the energy loss. Results of the radiative transfer model reveal that the spectral transmittance of the fast ice is determined by the thickness of snow and sea ice as well as the amount of inclusions. As major inclusions, the ice biota and particulates have a significant influence on the magnitude and distribution of the spectral transmittance. Based on the radiative transfer model, concentrations of chlorophyll and particulate in the fast ice are estimated at 5.51 mg/m2 and 95.79 g/m2, which are typical values in the spring in Barrow.  相似文献   
10.
以2015~2019年12景ALOS-2 PALSAR2影像和2018~2019年38景Sentinel-1A影像为主要数据源,利用PS-InSAR和SBAS-InSAR技术提取西藏江达县波罗乡白格滑坡点的形变信息,并对处理结果进行交叉验证。研究得到以下结论:1)PS-InSAR技术条件下,ALOS-2数据和Sentinel-1A数据的平均形变速率范围为-68.9~37.9 mm/a和-64.5~24.2 mm/a;SBAS-InSAR技术条件下,ALOS-2数据和Sentinel-1A数据的平均形变速率范围为-84.2~-40.0 mm/a和-84.0~-13.0 mm/a。2)对2种数据结果中提取的4个特征点进行时序分析和定量分析显示,2种InSAR技术结果变化趋势较为一致,验证了两者在滑坡监测中的可靠性和准确性。  相似文献   
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