Tidal averaging and models for anisotropic dispersion in coastal waters     

J. M. DE KOK 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》1994,46(2):160-177

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A branch chamber system and techniques for simultaneous pollutant exposure experiments and gaseous flux determinations     

CHRISTINE A. ENNIS  ALLAN L. LAZRUS  GREGORY L. KOK  PATRICK R. ZIMMERMAN  RUSSELL K. MONSON 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》1990,42(2):170-182

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Projections of Extreme Rainfall in Hong Kong in the 21st Century          下载免费PDF全文

LEE Tsz-cheung  CHAN Kin-yu  CHAN Ho-sun  KOK Mang-hin 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(6):691-709

The possible changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events in Hong Kong in the 21st century wereinvestigated by statistically downscaling 30 sets of the daily global climate model projections (involvinga combination of 12 models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios,namely,A2,A1B,and B1) of theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.To cater for the intermittentand skewed character of the daily rainfall,multiple stepwise logistic regression and multiple stepwise linearregression were employed to develop the downscaling models for predicting rainfall occurrence and rainfallamount,respectively.Verification of the simulation of the 1971-2000 climate reveals that the models ingeneral have an acceptable skill in reproducing past statistics of extreme rainfall events in Hong Kong.Theprojection results suggest that,in the 21st century,the annual number of rain days in Hong Kong is expectedto decrease while the daily rainfall intensity will increase,concurrent with the expected increase in annualrainfall.Based on the multi-model scenario ensemble mean,the annual number of rain day is expected todrop from 104 days in 1980-1999 to about 77 days in 2090-2099.For extreme rainfall events,about 90% ofthe model-scenario combinations indicate an increase in the annual number of days with daily rainfall 100mm (R100) towards the end of the 21st century.The mean number of R100 is expected to increase from 3.5days in 1980-1999 to about 5.3 days in 2090-2099.The projected changes in other extreme rainfall indicesalso suggest that the rainfall in Hong Kong in the 21st century may also become more extreme with moreuneven distributions of wet and dry periods.While most of the model-emission scenarios in general projectconsistent trends in the change of rainfall extremes in the 21st century,there is a large divergence in theprojections among different model/emission scenarios.This reflects that there are still large uncertainties inmodel simulations of future extreme rainfall events.  相似文献