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黑龙江省未来41年气候变化趋势与突变分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
选用由英国Hadley中心区域气候模式系统PRECIS构建的基准时段（1961—1990年）和未来时段（2010--2050年）A2、B2情景气候数据,应用线性倾向估算法、累积距平及Mann—Kendall法对排放情景特别报告（SRES）中A2和B2情景下黑龙江省2010--2050年的平均气温、平均最高最低气温、降水量的变化趋势和突变进行了分析。结果表明：相对于基准气候（1961--1990年）,未来41a平均气温表现出明显的上升趋势,A2、B2情景下年均气温分别升高1．63℃和1．94℃,突变分别发生在2031年和2033年;相对于基准气候,A2、B2情景下未来41a降水量分别增加5．3％和1．1％,降水量变化趋势不同,A2情景下为4．03mm／10a,B2情景下为5．94mm／10a,但趋势均不显著,且没有突变发生。总体上,黑龙江省未来41a的气候为向暖湿变化的趋势。 相似文献
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Adaptation to a warming-drying trend through cropping system adjustment over three decades: A case study in the northern agro-pastural ecotone of China 
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下载免费PDF全文 Long-term field monitoring data and historical crop data are useful to assess the impacts of climate change and to manage cropping systems.The objectives of this study are to understand the cropping system response to a warming-drying trend in the northern agro-pastural ecotone(NAE)of China and to document how farmers can adapt to the warming-drying trend by changing cropping system structure and adjusting planting date.The results indicate that a significant warming-drying trend existed in the NAE from 1980 to 2009,and this trend significantly decreased crop(spring wheat,naked oat,and potato)yields.Furthermore,the yield decreased by 16.2%-28.4%with a 1℃increase in maximum temperature and decreased by 6.6%-11.8%with a 10%decrease in precipitation.Considering food security,water use efficiency,and water ecological adaptability in the semi-arid NAE,cropping system structure adjustment(e.g.,a shift from wheat to potato as the predominant crop)and planting date adaptation(e.g.,a delay in crop planting date)can offset the impact of the warming-drying trend in the NAE.Based on the successful offsetting of the impact of the warming-drying trend in the NAE,we conclude that farmers can reduce the negative effects of climate change and minimize the risk of crop failure by adapting their cropping system structure at the farming level. 相似文献
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