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1.
With the Reisner-2 bulk microphysical parameterization of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5), this paper investigates the microphysical sensitivities of Typhoon Chanchu. Four different microphysical sensitivity experiments were designed with an objective to evaluate their respective impacts in modulating intensity forecasts and microphysics budgets of the typhoon. The set of sensitivity experiments were conducted ...  相似文献
2.
Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the current radiative imbalance via either (1) reducing incoming solar radiation (solar radiation management) or (2) removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs (carbon dioxide removal). For each option, we discuss its effectiveness and potential side effects, also considering lifetime of effect, development and deployment timescale, reversibility, and failure risks. We present a detailed review that builds on earlier work by including the most recent literature, and is more extensive than previous comparative frameworks. Solar radiation management propsals are most effective but short-lived, whilst carbon dioxide removal measures gain effectiveness the longer they are pursued. Solar radiation management could restore the global radiative balance, but must be maintained to avoid abrupt warming, meanwhile ocean acidification and residual regional climate changes would still occur. Carbon dioxide removal involves less risk, and offers a way to return to a pre-industrial CO2 level and climate on a millennial timescale, but is potentially limited by the CO2 storage capacity of geological reservoirs. Geoengineering could complement mitigation, but it is not an alternative to it. We expand on the possible combinations of mitigation, carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management that might be used to avoid dangerous climate change.  相似文献
3.
Climate change, such as warming and precipitation change, as well as elevated CO2 can affect soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and cause changes in soil carbon sequestration. In this study, we introduced a response equation, relating the relative change of SOC to the relative changes of annual average temperature, annual precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration, as well as their inter-products. Using Nelson Farm as a case study, based on simulations of CENTURY model and multiple regressions, we examined the response equation for three vegetation covers (i.e., soybean, corn, and grass) and scenarios with different soil erosion rates and initial SOC contents. The response equation fit the simulation results very well with high adjusted coefficients of determination (R 2) (0.982 to 0.990). The results showed that the SOC was negatively related to the annual average temperature, positively related to the annual precipitation, and positively related to the elevated CO2 for all the vegetation covers (p?2 and warming or precipitation change (p?2 on the SOC, and the SOC sequestration potential was assessed under climate change and elevated CO2 for different vegetations. Compared with the empirical models in the literature, this response equation provides a simple yet but robust method to represent the relationship between the SOC relative change vs. the relative changes of atmospheric temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  相似文献
4.
A. P. Dimri  S. K. Dash 《Climatic change》2012,111(3-4):775-800
Northern Indian rivers are primarily fed by wintertime (December, January, February—DJF) precipitation, in the form of snow—yielded by eastward moving synoptic weather systems called Western Disturbances (WDs), over the western Himalayas (WH). This accumulated snow melts during ablation period. In the context of today’s warming atmosphere, it is imperative to study the changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns over the WH to assess the impact of global warming on climatic conditions of the region. Keeping that in mind, observational analysis of temperature and precipitation fields is planned. In the present study various climatic indices are analyzed based on wintertime (DJF) data of 30?years (1975–2006) obtained from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE), India. Results indicate enhancement in the surface air temperature across the WH. Percent number of warm (cold) days have increased (decreased) during 1975–2006 over the WH. Further analysis of precipitation reveals slightly decreasing but inconsistent trends.  相似文献
5.
Analytical Lagrangian equations capable of predicting concentration profiles from known source distributions offer the opportunity to calculate source/sink distributions through inverted forms of these equations. Inverse analytical Lagrangian equations provide a practical means of estimating source profiles using concentration and turbulence measurements. Uncertainty concerning estimates of the essentially immeasurable Lagrangian length scale ( ${\mathcal{L}}$ ), a key input, impedes the operational practicality of this method. The present study evaluates ${\mathcal{L}}$ within a corn canopy by using field measurements to constrain an analytical Lagrangian equation. Measurements of net CO2 flux, soil-to-atmosphere CO2 flux, and in-canopy profiles of CO2 concentration provided the information required to solve for ${\mathcal{L}}$ in a global optimization algorithm for 30-min time intervals. For days when the canopy was a strong CO2 sink, the optimization frequently located ${\mathcal{L}}$ profiles that follow a convex shape. A constrained optimization then fit the profile shape to a smooth sigmoidal equation. Inputting the optimized ${\mathcal{L}}$ profiles in the forward and inverse Lagrangian equations leads to strong correlations between measured and calculated concentrations and fluxes. Coefficients of the sigmoidal equation were specific to each 30-min period and did not scale with any measured variable. Plausible looking ${\mathcal{L}}$ profiles were associated with negative bulk Richardson number values. Once the canopy senesced, a simple eddy diffusivity profile sufficed to relate concentrations and sources in the analytical Lagrangian equations.  相似文献
6.
Climate change mitigation via a reduction in the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principle requirement for reducing global warming, its impacts, and the degree of adaptation required. We present a simple conceptual model of anthropogenic CO2 emissions to highlight the trade off between delay in commencing mitigation, and the strength of mitigation then required to meet specific atmospheric CO2 stabilization targets. We calculate the effects of alternative emission profiles on atmospheric CO2 and global temperature change over a millennial timescale using a simple coupled carbon cycle-climate model. For example, if it takes 50 years to transform the energy sector and the maximum rate at which emissions can be reduced is ?2.5% $\text{year}^{-1}$ , delaying action until 2020 would lead to stabilization at 540 ppm. A further 20 year delay would result in a stabilization level of 730 ppm, and a delay until 2060 would mean stabilising at over 1,000 ppm. If stabilization targets are met through delayed action, combined with strong rates of mitigation, the emissions profiles result in transient peaks of atmospheric CO2 (and potentially temperature) that exceed the stabilization targets. Stabilization at 450 ppm requires maximum mitigation rates of ?3% to ?5% $\text{year}^{-1}$ , and when delay exceeds 2020, transient peaks in excess of 550 ppm occur. Consequently tipping points for certain Earth system components may be transgressed. Avoiding dangerous climate change is more easily achievable if global mitigation action commences as soon as possible. Starting mitigation earlier is also more effective than acting more aggressively once mitigation has begun.  相似文献
7.
In recent years, an increase in the number of anthropogenic aerosol particles has raised the global mean content of aerosol particles in the atmosphere from that of preindustrial times. The indirect effects of aerosols on weather and climate cannot be ignored. In this paper, the fifth generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)?CNational Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Typhoon Chanchu (international designation: 0601), which affected the northwest Pacific. Simulations are conducted in three two-way nested domains with Mercator map projection. The horizontal grid resolutions of the three domains are 27, 9, and 3?km. A period of 60?h is simulated. Surface and rawinsonde conventional observation data and ocean wind data are additionally incorporated into the initialization data. A control (CTL) experiment is run to produce a reasonable forecast. We change the parameter of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration (CNP) in the Reisner-2 scheme of the CTL experiment (the default value is 100?cm?3) to conduct two sensitivity experiments. They are the very clean marine (VCM) CNP experiment (CNP?=?25?cm?3) and the severe contamination (SC) CNP experiment (CNP?=?1,000?cm?3). We investigate the effects of the CNP on Typhoon Chanchu by comparing and analyzing the simulation results of the three experiments in terms of the track, intensity, precipitation, vertical structure, and microphysical processes. The main results show that Typhoon Chanchu slightly weakens as the CNP increases. Increasing the CCN to 1,000?cm?3 results in less graupel, rainwater, and cloud ice but more cloud water. However, the mixing ratio of snow does not distinctly change as the CNP changes. Increasing the CCN leads a rapid decrease in the autoconversion of cloud water to rainwater. There is no autoconversion of cloud water to rainwater in a seriously polluted continental air mass. As the CNP increases, there is more condensation, evaporation, accretion of cloud water by rainwater, and precipitation fallout. Finally, a seriously polluted continental air mass can result in distinctly lower precipitation efficiency.  相似文献
8.
Annual Cyclic Variations (ACV) in the Total Ozone Column (TOC) were estimated in latitudinally averaged Multi Sensor Reanalysis (MSR) monthly mean TOC time-series data-set from Jan 1979 to Dec 2008 for Indian region. The TOC contents over any latitude is controlled by the photochemistry and dynamics present in different regions of the stratosphere and troposphere, correlation between ACV in TOC, and ACV in other climatic and dynamical factors—(i) Solar Insolation on a horizontal surface at the top of the atmosphere (ETSI); (ii) Zonal Wind at 30 hPa pressure level (ZW); (iii) Meridional Wind at 30 hPa pressure level (MW); and (iv) Air Temperature at 30 hPa pressure level (AT)—were taken into account to understand their role in the annual cyclic variability present in the TOC over Indian region. Contributions of ACV present in these climatic and dynamical factors to the ACV in TOC were ascertained by performing a multiple linear regression analysis by taking ACV in ETSI, ACV in ZW and ACV in AT as independent variables (co-variates) for ACV in TOC. It is concluded that in the tropical part of Indian region ACV in TOC is largely controlled by the photochemistry; whereas in the subtropical part of the region, the dynamics present in the stratosphere mainly decides ACV in TOC.  相似文献
9.
Due to the dramatic increase in the global mean surface temperature (GMST) during the twentieth century, the climate science community has endeavored to determine which mechanisms are responsible for global warming. By analyzing a millennium simulation (the period of 1000–1990 ad) of a global climate model and global climate proxy network dataset, we estimate the contribution of solar and greenhouse gas forcings on the increase in GMST during the present warm period (1891–1990 ad). Linear regression analysis reveals that both solar and greenhouse gas forcing considerably explain the increase in global mean temperature during the present warm period, respectively, in the global climate model. Using the global climate proxy network dataset, on the other hand, statistical approach suggests that the contribution of greenhouse gas forcing is slightly larger than that of solar forcing to the increase in global mean temperature during the present warm period. Overall, our result indicates that the solar forcing as well as the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing plays an important role to increase the global mean temperature during the present warm period.  相似文献
10.
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