WRF中土壤图及参数表的更新对华北夏季预报的影响研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

卢冰  王薇  杨扬  仲跻芹  陈敏 《气象学报》2019,77(6):1028-1040

土壤质地及其物理性质的参数化对陆面过程模拟具有明显的影响。研究了土壤质地和土壤水文参数表的更新对WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模拟性能的影响。使用北京师范大学土壤属性数据集和修正后的土壤水文参数表替换WRF默认数据,对2017年6—8月华北地区开展数值模拟试验和评估验证。结果表明,模拟结果对土壤类型数据集和水文参数表的更新较为敏感,对地面要素预报有正效果。WRF默认土壤数据集中,中国东部以粘壤土为主,而在北京师范大学土壤数据集里则以壤土为主;修正后的土壤水文参数在Noah陆面过程中增强了裸土潜热蒸发能力。数值模拟试验表明,土壤输入数据和土壤水文参数的更新能够增强陆面向大气的潜热同时减弱感热输送,致使大气底层温度降低而湿度增大。利用华北区域748个地面气象观测站的2 m温度和2 m湿度对2017年夏季的模拟结果进行验证,结果显示更新试验对地面要素的预报偏差有较好的修正作用,能够将2 m温、湿度的预报技巧分别提高3.4%和2.9%。   相似文献   

Enhancing Hydrologic Modelling in the Coupled Weather Research and Forecasting–Urban Modelling System     

Jiachuan Yang  Zhi-Hua Wang  Fei Chen  Shiguang Miao  Mukul Tewari  James A. Voogt  Soe Myint 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2015,155(1):87-109

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Use of daily precipitation uncertainties in streamflow simulation and forecast   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Yeonsang Hwang  Martyn P. Clark  Balaji Rajagopalan 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(7):957-972

Among other sources of uncertainties in hydrologic modeling, input uncertainty due to a sparse station network was tested. The authors tested impact of uncertainty in daily precipitation on streamflow forecasts. In order to test the impact, a distributed hydrologic model (PRMS, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System) was used in two hydrologically different basins (Animas basin at Durango, Colorado and Alapaha basin at Statenville, Georgia) to generate ensemble streamflows. The uncertainty in model inputs was characterized using ensembles of daily precipitation, which were designed to preserve spatial and temporal correlations in the precipitation observations. Generated ensemble flows in the two test basins clearly showed fundamental differences in the impact of input uncertainty. The flow ensemble showed wider range in Alapaha basin than the Animas basin. The wider range of streamflow ensembles in Alapaha basin was caused by both greater spatial variance in precipitation and shorter time lags between rainfall and runoff in this rainfall dominated basin. This ensemble streamflow generation framework was also applied to demonstrate example forecasts that could improve traditional ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) method.  相似文献   

A brief history of the solar oblateness. A review     

C. Damiani  J.P. Rozelot  S. Lefebvre  A. Kilcik  A.G. Kosovichev 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2011,73(2-3):241-250

We hereby present a review on solar oblateness measurements. By emphasizing historical data, we illustrate how the discordance between experimental results can lead to substantial improvements in the building of new technical apparatus as well as to the emergence of new ideas to develop new theories. We stress out the need to get accurate data from space to enhance our knowledge of the solar core in order to develop more precise ephemerids and ultimately build possible new gravitational theories.  相似文献   

Changed relation between sunspot numbers,solar UV/EUV radiation and TSI during the declining phase of solar cycle 23     

R. Lukianova  K. Mursula 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2011,73(2-3):235-240

We study the mutual relation of sunspot numbers and several proxies of solar UV/EUV radiation, such as the F10.7 radio flux, the HeI 1083 nm equivalent width and the solar MgII core-to-wing ratio. It has been noted earlier that the relation between these solar activity parameters changed in 2001/2002, during a large enhancement of solar activity in the early declining phase of solar cycle 23. This enhancement (the secondary peak after the Gnevyshev gap) forms the maximum of solar UV/EUV parameters during solar cycle 23. We note that the changed mutual relation between sunspot numbers and UV/EUV proxies continues systematically during the whole declining phase of solar cycle 23, with the UV/EUV proxies attaining relatively larger values for the same sunspot number than during the several decennia prior to this time. We have also verified this evolution using the indirect solar UV/EUV proxy given by a globally averaged f₀(F2) frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer. We also note of a simultaneous, systematic change in the relation between the sunspot numbers and the total solar irradiance, which follow an exceptionally steep relation leading to a new minimum. Our results suggest that the reduction of sunspot magnetic fields (probably photospheric fields in general), started quite abruptly in 2001/2002. While these changes do not similarly affect the chromospheric UV/EUV emissions, the TSI suffers an even more dramatic reduction, which cannot be understood in terms of the photospheric field reduction only. However, the changes in TSI are seen to be simultaneous to those in sunspots, so most likely being due to the same ultimate cause.  相似文献   

An evaluation of experimental decadal predictions using CCSM4     

A. Karspeck  S. Yeager  G. Danabasoglu  H. Teng 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(3-4):907-923

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Galactic cosmic ray variation influence on baric system dynamics at middle latitudes     

Irina Artamonova  Svetlana Veretenenko 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2011,73(2-3):366-370

Variations of atmospheric pressure in the North Atlantic region during Forbush decreases of galactic cosmic rays were investigated. A noticeable pressure growth with the maximum on the 3rd and 4th days after the Forbush decrease onsets was revealed over Scandinavia and the northern region of the European part of Russia. It was shown that the observed pressure growth was caused by the formation of blocking anticyclones in the region of the climatic Arctic front, as well as by the sharp slowing of the movement of North Atlantic cyclones. It was suggested that the particles that precipitate in the regions of the climatic Arctic and Polar fronts, with the minimum energies E～20–80 MeV and ～2–3 GeV, respectively, may influence the processes of cyclone and anticyclone formation and development at extratropical latitudes.  相似文献   

Cloud characteristics over the rain-shadow region of North Central peninsular India during monsoon withdrawal and post-withdrawal periods     

S. B. Morwal  S. G. Narkhedkar  B. Padmakumari  R. S. Maheskumar  D. R. Kothawale  K. K. Dani  R. Burger  R. T. Bruintjes  J. R. Kulkarni 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(1-2):495-514

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Recovery of thermohaline circulation under CO₂ stabilization and overshoot scenarios   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Norikazu. Nakashiki  Dong-Hoon Kim  Frank O. Bryan  Yoshikatsu Yoshida  Daisuke Tsumune  Koki Maruyama  Hideyuki Kitabata 《Ocean Modelling》2006,15(3-4):200

In this study we examine the behavior of the thermohaline circulation, as simulated by the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), for several centuries following CO₂ stabilization for the SRES B1 and A1B scenarios and for an “overshoot” scenario in which CO₂ levels temporarily reach the same level as in the A1B scenario before declining to an ultimate stabilization level that is identical to the B1 case. While we find no evidence for irreversible changes of the thermohaline circulation in the overshoot experiment, the interplay of the different timescales of the temperature response of the surface and interior ocean does lead to a number of differences in the long-term response of the ocean between it and the B1 stabilization scenario where the same GHG levels are approached by different paths. The stronger initial warming and its slow penetration into the deeper ocean, followed by a transient surface cooling in the overshoot scenario leads to lower static stability, deeper mixing, and a more rapid recovery of the thermohaline circulation than in the B1 stabilization scenario. While the overshoot scenario recovers surface conditions (e.g. SST, sea ice extent) very similar to the B1 scenario shortly after reaching the same GHG levels, the additional accumulation of heat in the interior ocean during the period of higher forcing causes the global mean ocean temperature and steric sea level to remain higher than in the B1 stabilization scenario for at least another several centuries.  相似文献   

Climate applications of a global, 2-hourly atmospheric precipitable water dataset derived from IGS tropospheric products     

Junhong Wang  Liangying Zhang 《Journal of Geodesy》2009,83(3-4):209-217

A global, 2-hourly atmospheric precipitable water (PW) dataset is produced from ground-based GPS measurements of zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) using the International Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Service (IGS) tropospheric products (~80–370 stations, 1997–2006) and US SuomiNet product (169 stations, 2003–2006). The climate applications of the GPS PW dataset are highlighted in this study. Firstly, the GPS PW dataset is used as a reference to validate radiosonde and atmospheric reanalysis data. Three types of systematic errors in global radiosonde PW data are quantified based on comparisons with the GPS PW data, including measurement biases for each of the fourteen radiosonde types along with their characteristics, long-term temporal inhomogeneity and diurnal sampling errors of once and twice daily radiosonde data. The comparisons between the GPS PW data and three reanalysis products, namely the NCEP-NCAR (NNR), ECMWF 40-year (ERA-40) and Japanese reanalyses (JRA), show that the elevation difference between the reanalysis grid box and the GPS station is the primary cause of the PW difference. Secondly, the PW diurnal variations are documented using the 2-hourly GPS PW dataset. The PW diurnal cycle has an annual-mean, peak-to-peak amplitude of 0.66, 0.53 and 1.11 mm for the globe, Northern Hemisphere, and Southern Hemisphere, respectively, with the time of the peak ranging from noon to late evening depending on the season and region. Preliminary analyses suggest that the PW diurnal cycle in Europe is poorly represented in the NNR and JRA products. Several recommendations are made for future improvements of IGS products for climate applications.  相似文献