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1.
2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,是暖海温中心出现在赤道中太平洋区域的一种新型厄尔尼诺,即中太平洋型厄尔尼诺。本文基于一个厄尔尼诺预测系统,利用三组回报试验来详细区分海洋表层和次表层初始状态对预报2002/03年中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的作用,并由此来探寻对预报厄尔尼诺演变过程最有利的初始条件。回报试验分为三组:(1)仅同化海表温度观测(sea surface temperature;简称SST)来优化海洋表层初始状态(Assim_SST);(2)仅同化海表高度观测(sea level;简称SL)来更新海洋次表层初始状态(Assim_SL);(3)同时同化SST和SL观测来一起更新海洋表层和次表层初始状态(Assim_SST+SL)。回报试验结果表明,三种不同的初始条件都可以使模式提前一年成功地预报2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,并且"Assim_SST+SL"回报试验的效果最好。三组回报试验结果间的对比表明:海洋表层和次表层初始状态均对成功地预报该事件有重要作用,但其作用分别集中在事件发展的不同阶段。精确的海洋表层初始状态更容易激发模式预报出一次厄尔尼诺事件,而更合理的海洋次表层初始状态则能有效地提高厄尔尼诺事件预报的强度。 相似文献
2.
中国江南地区是高温热浪灾害的高影响区。以往的一些研究发现了不同海域海温异常在年际或年代际尺度上的变化对中国南方夏季平均温度异常的影响效应。但是,关于这些关键海域海温季节内尺度变化对江南地区高温事件发生和维持影响的研究尚不多见。为此,本文利用中国站点观测、美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）再分析以及美国国家海洋大气管理局（NOAA）海温等资料,首先以2016年江南地区夏季2次高温事件为例（分别发生在7月21日至31日和8月15日至25日）,重点探讨了热带大西洋海温季节内变化的可能贡献。在此基础上,基于1981～2016年多高温事件合成结果,进一步分析了热带大西洋海温季节内变化影响江南高温事件的可能链接过程。研究发现,热带西大西洋暖海温异常在季节内尺度上的发展与维持有利于在欧亚大陆激发出较为稳定的Rossby波列结构,使东亚及其沿海地区为深厚的高压系统控制,进而引发江南地区持续性高温事件。这种热带大西洋暖海温的阶段性增强与维持及其相应的稳定Rossby波列结构超前于持续性高温事件:在热带大西洋海温显著升高1个月之内,江南地区可能出现持续性高温事件。在季节内尺度上,热带大西洋显著暖海温异常出现明显的阶段性增强之后10天左右,北印度洋暖海温也出现了阶段性增强。这暗示热带大西洋热力异常除通过直接激发欧亚大陆Rossby波列之外,还有可能通过影响热带印度洋海温的阶段性异常,进而对江南地区高温事件的发生和维持产生一定影响。另外,在厄尔尼诺衰减并向拉尼娜转变阶段,热带中东太平洋冷海温异常和北印度洋暖海温异常在季节内的协同阶段性变化可能也对持续性高温事件有贡献。上述关键区海温的季节内变化对中国江南地区高温事件具有一定的前期指示意义,但它们的具体影响过程,特别是在季节内尺度上的协同影响效应和物理过程,尚需未来进一步研究。 相似文献
3.
Preliminary Studies on Predicting the Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature through Combined Statistical Methods and Dynamic ENSO Prediction 
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下载免费PDF全文 The sea surface temperature(SST) in the Indian Ocean affects the regional climate over the Asian continent mostly through a modulation of the monsoon system.It is still difficult to provide an a priori indication of the seasonal variability over the Indian Ocean.It is widely recognized that the warm and cold events of SST over the tropical Indian Ocean are strongly linked to those of the equatorial eastern Pacific.In this study,a statistical prediction model has been developed to predict the monthly SST over the tropical Indian Ocean.This model is a linear regression model based on the lag relationship between the SST over the tropical Indian Ocean and the Ni o3.4(5°S-5°N,170°W-120°W) SST Index.The predictor(i.e.,Ni o3.4 SST Index) has been operationally predicted by a large size ensemble El Ni o and the Southern Oscillation(ENSO) forecast system with coupled data assimilation(Leefs_CDA),which achieves a high predictive skill of up to a 24-month lead time for the equatorial eastern Pacific SST.As a result,the prediction skill of the present statistical model over the tropical Indian Ocean is better than that of persistence prediction for January 1982 through December 2009. 相似文献
4.
基于CNOP方法的台风目标观测中三种敏感区
确定方案的比较研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在目标观测中,敏感区的确定是个关键性的问题。本文详细研究了如何用条件非线性最优扰动（CNOP）方法确定敏感区。提出了三种确定敏感区的方案:水平投影方案、单点能量投影方案以及垂直积分能量方案。比较了三种方案确定的敏感区的差异,分析了它们所阐释的物理意义,讨论了它们的优缺点,并通过理想回报试验考查了不同方案确定的敏感区的有效性。对六个台风个例的应用结果显示,单点能量投影方案与垂直积分能量方案下识别的敏感区较为相似,二者与水平投影方案确定的敏感区则有较大的区别。两种能量方案确定的敏感区更多地反映了环境场对台风的影响,而水平投影方案则反映了台风自身对流不对称性结构对台风发展变化的影响。理想回报试验结果表明,由两种能量方案确定的敏感区对预报误差能量的减小程度以及路径预报的改善程度都要大于水平投影方案确定的敏感区的效果,且垂直积分能量方案确定的敏感区的有效性最高。而在强度预报方面,三种方案对预报效果的改善程度相当。因此,总的说在台风目标观测研究中,利用CNOP方法确定敏感区时,垂直积分能量方案是较佳的方案。 相似文献
5.
The Relationship between the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet and Summer Precipitation over East Asia as Simulated by the IAP AGCM4.0 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Based on a 30-year Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project（AMIP） simulation using IAP AGCM4.0, the relationship between the East Asian subtropical westerly jet（EASWJ） and summer precipitation over East Asia has been investigated, and compared with observation. It was found the meridional displacement of the EASWJ has a closer relationship with the precipitation over East Asia both from model simulation and observation, with an anomalous southward shift of EASWJ being conducive to rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley（YHRV）, and an anomalous northward shift resulting in less rainfall over the YHRV. However, the simulated precipitation anomalies were found to be weaker than observed from the composite analysis, and this would be related to the weakly reproduced mid-upper-level convergence in the mid-high latitudes and ascending motion in the lower latitudes. 相似文献
6.
Application of a Coupled Land Surface-Hydrological Model to Flood Simulation in the Huaihe River Basin of China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 A hydrological simulation in the Huaihe River Basin（HRB） was investigated using two different models： a coupled land surface hydrological model（CLHMS）, and a large-scale hydrological model（LSX-HMS）. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset and observed precipitation data were used as meteorological inputs. The simulation results from both models were compared in terms of flood processes forecasting during high flow periods in the summers of 2003 and 2007, and partial high flow periods in 2000. The comparison results showed that the simulated streamflow by CLHMS model agreed well with the observations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients larger than 0.76, in both periods of 2000 at Lutaizi and Bengbu stations in the HRB, while the skill of the LSX-HMS model was relatively poor. The simulation results for the high flow periods in 2003 and 2007 suggested that the CLHMS model can simulate both the peak time and intensity of the hydrological processes, while the LSX-HMS model provides a delayed flood peak. These results demonstrated the importance of considering the coupling between the land surface and hydrological module in achieving better predictions for hydrological processes, and CLHMS was proven to be a promising model for future applications in flood simulation and forecasting. 相似文献
7.
改进的切线性模式对一个边界层模式变分资料同化的改善 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
大气、海洋中边界层物理过程的强非线性会对切线性模式近似（尤其是当积分时间长时）有较大的影响，从而给相应的4维变分资料同化问题的求解造成困难。本构造了Mellor-Yamada湍流封闭模式（level 2.5)的一个改进的切线性模式，相比通常的切线性模式和简化的切线性模式可以提高对非线性扰动的逼近。利用这个改进的切线性模式的伴随模式分别进行了1到7天的变分资料同化试验，得到了满意的结果。而用通常的伴随模式和简化的伴随模式都无法得到令人满意的结果。 相似文献
8.
针对参加“国际耦合模式比较计划”(CMIP5)的IAP/LASG气候系统模式FGOALS-s2,评估了其对南半球气候平均态的模拟能力,在此基础上,预估了未来不同“典型浓度路径”(RCPs)情景下南半球气候的变化特征.对20世纪历史气候模拟结果的分析表明,模式能够合理再现南半球大气环流气候态分布特征,包括6～8月平均(JJA)南半球双西风急流现象,只是模拟的北支急流偏弱、南支急流偏强.未来气候预估试验中,不同RCPs情景下南半球温度变化以增暖为主要特征,陆地增温大于海洋,只有南大西洋—印度洋海盆存在局部变冷.综合四种不同情景,未来随着温室气体浓度的增加,南半球中纬度高压带将显著加强,绕极低压带将加深.降水呈现出增多的特征,12月到来年2月平均(DJF)强于JJA,海洋强于陆地,只有南印度洋和南太平洋中部局部降水减少.未来不同RCPs情景下,马斯克林高压表现出先减弱后增强的特征,而澳大利亚高压则呈现出先增强后减弱的特征.南极涛动(AAO)的变化表现为:RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下AAO都表现为先增强后减弱,RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下都为一致的增强趋势,这主要与四种情景中模拟的未来温度变化结构不同有关.例如在RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下,南半球高纬高层温度增暖趋势小于中纬地区,使得经向温度梯度增大,中纬度西风加强,60°S以南位势高度减小,最终令AAO增强. 相似文献
9.
Distinguished Effects of Interannual Salinity Variability on the Development of the Central-Pacific El Nino Events 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 El Nio events in the central equatorial Pacific (CP) are gaining increased attention,due to their increasing intensity within the global warming context.Various physical processes have been identified in the climate system that can be responsible for the modulation of El Nio,especially the effects of interannual salinity variability.In this work,a comprehensive data analysis is performed to illustrate the effects of interannual salinity variability using surface and subsurface salinity fields from the Met Office ENSEMBLES (EN3) quality controlled ocean dataset.It is demonstrated that during the developing phase of an El Nio event,a negative sea surface salinity (SSS) anomaly in the western-central basin acts to freshen the mixed layer (ML),decrease oceanic density in the upper ocean,and stabilize the upper layers.These related oceanic processes tend to reduce the vertical mixing and entrainment of subsurface water at the base of the ML,which further enhances the warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the El Nio event.However,the effects of interannually variable salinity are much more significant during the CP-El Nio than during the eastern Pacific (EP) El Nio,indicating that the salinity effect might be an important contributor to the development of CP-El Nio events. 相似文献
10.
A dataset of global ocean surface currents for 1999-2007 derived from Argo float trajectories: Comparison with surface drifter and TAO measurements 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 A dataset of surface current vectors with error estimate from 1999 to 2007 is derived from the trajectories of the Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography （Argo） drifting on surface over the global ocean. The error of the estimated surface currents is about 4.7 cm s-1 which is equivalent to the accuracy of the currents determined from the surface drifters. Geographically, the Argo-derived surface currents can fill many gaps left by the Global Drifter Program due to the greater number of floats, and can provide a complementary in situ observational system for monitoring global ocean surface currents. The surface currents from the Argo floats are compared with the surface drifter-derived currents and the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean program （TAO） measurements. The comparisons show good agreement for both the current amplitude and the direction of surface currents. Results indicate the feasibility of obtaining ocean surface currents from the Argo array and of combining the surface currents from Argo and the ocean surface drifters for in situ mapping of the global surface currents. The authors also make the dataset available to users of interest for many types of applications. 相似文献