首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
文章检索
  按 检索   检索词:      
出版年份:   被引次数:   他引次数: 提示:输入*表示无穷大
  收费全文   5篇
  完全免费   4篇
  大气科学   9篇
  2015年   2篇
  2012年   1篇
  2011年   2篇
  2009年   2篇
  2003年   1篇
  2001年   1篇
排序方式: 共有9条查询结果,搜索用时 968 毫秒
1
1.
遗传门限自回归模型在气象时间序列预测中的应用   总被引:6,自引:2,他引:4       下载免费PDF全文
提出了建立门限自回归模型(TAR)的一套简便通用的方法。用基于实码的改进遗传算法,可同时优化门限值和自回归系数,解决了TAR建模过程所涉及的大量复杂寻优工作这一难题,为TAR模型在气象预测中的广泛应用提供了有力工具。实例计算的结果说明:通过门限值的控制作用,TAR模型可有效地利用气象时序资料所隐含的时序分段相依性这一重要信息,限制了模型误差,保证了TAR模型预测性能的稳健性,提高了预测精度。该方法具有通用性,在各种气象非线性时序预测中具有广泛的实用价值。  相似文献
2.
1971-2010年雅鲁藏布江中游气候生长期变化特征   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
利用1971-2010年雅鲁藏布江中游河谷地区拉萨、日喀则、泽当和江孜4个站逐日平均气温和降水量资料,分析了该地区气候生长期变化特征。结果表明:(1)雅鲁藏布江中游地区各界限温度气候生长期以5~8 d·(10a)-1的速率增加,其中≥0℃和≥10℃界限温度的气候生长期都增加了30天左右,≥5℃气候生长期增加了20天左右;以稳定通过10℃界限温度来判断,该地区冬半年时间在缩短,夏半年时间在延长。(2)该地区稳定通过各界限温度的初日提前、终日推后,持续天数和活动积温增加趋势显著;≥10℃界限温度的降水量和降水日数增加趋势显著,分别以19 mm·(10a)-1和1.5 d·(10a)-1的速率增加,且在20世纪80年代末发生突变,表明该地区稳定通过10℃界限温度的水热条件显著地向暖湿变化。(3)各界限温度的终日年际变化相对较稳定,其他要素年际变化均处于不稳定状态;年代际变化上,≥10℃界限温度的初日、终日、持续天数以及各界限温度的活动积温保持台阶式变化,其他要素呈波动变化,最小值出现在20世纪80年代。(4)≥10℃界限温度的终日、持续天数和活动积温的变化趋势在20世纪90年代后期出现突变现象,表明≥10℃界限温度的终日显著推后趋势对夏半年的延长贡献最大。  相似文献
3.
山区水库水面气温与太阳辐射的修正及应用   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
考虑到山区水库库面气象要素受周围地形影响,结合前人的研究,库区气温计算方法采用回归余项法并计入地形影响,而对于库区水面上的太阳辐射计算,则采用了平行山脊坡地上的简化算法.应用结果表明:由经度、纬度、海拔高度和大地形影响等4项建立的多元线性回归气温方程拟合效果显著;并用同时期盐边气象站的资料进行检验,检验精度在0.5℃以内.与平地相比,在山区地形影响下的二滩库区水面太阳辐射有一定程度的改变量,同时不同河岸坡度对水库水面接收的太阳辐射有较大影响.该方法有效揭示了山区月平均温度和太阳辐射的时空变化.修正后的气温和太阳辐射符合山区实际情况.  相似文献
4.
For the conservative and non-conservative schemes of nonlinear evolution equations, by taking the two-dimensional shallow water wave equations as an example, a comparative analysis on computational stability is carried out. The relationship between the nonlinear computational stability, the structure of the difference schemes, and the form of initial values is also discussed.  相似文献
5.
On the basis of the mean annual and seasonal temperatures from 30 meteorological stations in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) from 1961 to 2008, the temperature trends are analyzed by using Mann–Kendall test and linear trend analysis. There is an increasing trend in mean annual and seasonal temperatures during this period, and the increasing trends in winter seem more significant than those in the other three seasons. The mean annual temperature has increased by 0.0158°C/year during the last 48 years. There are more than 70% of stations exhibiting increasing trends for annual and seasonal temperatures. The increasing trends in the headwater and upper reaches are more dominant than those in the middle and lower reaches. The largest increase magnitude occurred in the low temperature area, while the largest decrease magnitude occurred in the high temperature area. The decreasing trends are mainly characterized for the maximum temperature time series, and summer is the only season showing a slight and insignificant increasing trend. All the time series showed a statistically significant increasing trend at the level of α?=?0.05 for the minimum temperature time series. As a whole, the increasing magnitude of the minimum temperature is significantly greater than the decreasing magnitude of the maximum temperature.  相似文献
6.
Among the three dynamically linked branches of the water cycle, including atmospheric, surface, and subsurface water, groundwater is the largest reservoir and an active component of the hydrologic system. Because of the inherent slow response time, groundwater may be particularly relevant for long time-scale processes such as multi-years or decadal droughts. This study uses regional climate simulations with and without surface water?Cgroundwater interactions for the conterminous US to assess the influence of climate, soil, and vegetation on groundwater table dynamics, and its potential feedbacks to regional climate. Analyses show that precipitation has a dominant influence on the spatial and temporal variations of groundwater table depth (GWT). The simulated GWT is found to decrease sharply with increasing precipitation. Our simulation also shows some distinct spatial variations that are related to soil porosity and hydraulic conductivity. Vegetation properties such as minimum stomatal resistance, and root depth and fraction are also found to play an important role in controlling the groundwater table. Comparing two simulations with and without groundwater table dynamics, we find that groundwater table dynamics mainly influences the partitioning of soil water between the surface (0?C0.5?m) and subsurface (0.5?C5?m) rather than total soil moisture. In most areas, groundwater table dynamics increases surface soil moisture at the expense of the subsurface, except in regions with very shallow groundwater table. The change in soil water partitioning between the surface and subsurface is found to strongly correlate with the partitioning of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. The evaporative fraction (EF) is generally higher during summer when groundwater table dynamics is included. This is accompanied by increased cloudiness, reduced diurnal temperature range, cooler surface temperature, and increased cloud top height. Although both convective and non-convective precipitation are enhanced, the higher EF changes the partitioning to favor more non-convective precipitation, but this result could be sensitive to the convective parameterization used. Compared to simulations without groundwater table dynamics, the dry bias in the summer precipitation is slightly reduced over the central and eastern US Groundwater table dynamics can provide important feedbacks to atmospheric processes, and these feedbacks are stronger in regions with deeper groundwater table, because the interactions between surface and subsurface are weak when the groundwater table is deep. This increases the sensitivity of surface soil moisture to precipitation anomalies, and therefore enhances land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere through changes in soil moisture and evaporative fraction. By altering the groundwater table depth, land use change and groundwater withdrawal can alter land surface response and feedback to the climate system.  相似文献
7.
The main objective of this article is to establish a new mechanism of ENSO,as a self-organizing and self-excitation system,with two highly coupled processes.The first is the oscillation between the two metastable warm(El Ni(?)o phase) and cold events(La Ni(?)a phase),and the second is the spatiotemporal oscillation of the sea surface temperature(SST) field.The symbiotic interplay between these two processes gives rises the climate variability associated with the ENSO,leads to both the random and deterministic features of the ENSO,and defines a new natural feedback mechanism,which drives the sporadic oscillation of the ENSO.The new mechanism is rigorously derived using a dynamic transition theory developed recently by the authors,which has also been successfully applied to a wide range of problems in nonlinear sciences.  相似文献
8.
为避免常规分类方法复杂的数学理论和繁琐的计算,提出了基于集对原理的洪水分类新方法——集对分析法(SPAM)。系统地给出了集对分析法的基本思路和计算步骤。建议方法概念清晰,结构简单,计算简洁,易操作,是一种有效的分类途径。以实测洪水过程为例,应用研究表明集对分析法的分类结果是可行的。  相似文献
9.
1
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号