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1.
利用福建龙岩、漳州、泉州新一代多普勒天气雷达和厦门海沧双偏振雷达探测资料,采用动态地球坐标系下双雷达三维风场反演与拼图技术,基于天气研究和预报模式(Weather Research and Forecasting,WRF)及其资料同化系统,对登陆台风“莫兰蒂”(1614)引起的2016年9月14—15日福建强降水过程进行了双雷达风场反演拼图资料检验及其三维变分同化对强降水精细预报影响的数值试验,结果发现:(1)动态地球坐标系下双雷达反演风场能合理反映实际风场分布状况,其误差相对较小。相较厦门翔安风廓线雷达及厦门探空秒级测风数据,反演风风向(风速)平均绝对误差分别为7.8°(2.6 m/s)及3.4°(1.1 m/s);(2)反演风场水平方向稀疏化对同化及预报结果极为重要,过密的反演风场资料会给同化及预报结果带来负效果。文中采用18、6、2 km 3重嵌套,在3重嵌套区域均进行同化以及仅在2 km区域进行同化两种情况下,均表现为当反演风场资料水平分辨率提高到0.1°时,同化分析及预报的台风环流开始受到负影响;且当反演风场资料水平分辨率越高时,负效果越明显。敏感性试验结果显示,分辨率取0.2°时数值预报效果最好;(3)以美国国家环境预报中心全球预报系统(National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Global Forecast System,NCEP/GFS)0.5°×0.5°分析场为初值,基于3个不同起报时刻(2016年9月14日14时、20时及15日02时)(北京时,下同)模拟的福建省境内台风内核雨带和螺旋雨带逐时演变、台风路径与强度、逐时降水TS评分和空间相关差异显著,其中14日14时起报试验效果最好;而14日20时起报试验效果最差,这与该试验初始台风大风轴风速明显偏大有关;(4)在上述3个不同起报时刻试验基础上,分别增加双雷达反演风场资料的三维变分同化后,福建境内地面风场和台风内核雨带、螺旋雨带逐时分布、逐时降水TS评分和空间相关、台风环流结构以及U、V风垂直廓线分布均有明显改善,最大正影响时效可达24 h;但仅对1—6 h时效内台风路径有改善。   相似文献   
2.
The Paris agreement signed in April, 2016 aims to balance global anthropogenic carbon emissions and terrestrial carbon sinks by the middle of the 21st century. To fulfill this goal, it is necessary to calculate carbon fluxes of different regions reliably. The global carbon assimilation system is an effective technique for achieving this goal. The Ministry of Science and Technology of China supports the project entitled as study on the global carbon assimilation system based on multisource remote sensing data through the national key research and development programs for global change and adaptation during the thirteen-five period. This project will develop synergic inversion techniques for retrieving key parameters of biological and atmospheric cycles and for assimilating multisource remote sensing and ground based data. Then, the high resolution global carbon assimilation system coupled with an ecological model will be constructed. This system is able to assimilate jointly multisource observation data and to optimize key model parameters, photosynthesis and respiration carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems, and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions. This system will be used to study quantitatively the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions and to identify the mechanisms driving the global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources. The outputs of this study will be helpful for the fulfillment of the key research and development programs for global change and adaptation and provide valuable data and technical support for the decision-making in China.  相似文献   
3.
改进的CLDAS降水驱动对中国区域积雪模拟的影响评估   总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1  
师春香  张帅  孙帅  姜立鹏  梁晓  贾炳浩  吴捷 《气象》2018,44(8):985-997
积雪因为其特定的属性在气候变化和水文循环中扮演着重要角色,在大气和陆面之间起到了调节能量和水交换的显著作用,而陆面驱动数据的质量直接决定着模式对积雪的模拟效果。本文采用CLDAS(CMA Land Data Assimilation System)和改进后的降水驱动(CLDAS-Prcp)分别驱动Noah3.6陆面模式对积雪变量进行模拟,并对中国主要的积雪区东北区域、新疆区域、青藏高原区域的积雪覆盖率、雪深、雪水当量的模拟效果进行了评估。结果表明,CLDAS-Prcp改善了原有驱动在冬季由于低估降水所造成的模拟积雪量偏少的情况;东北区域模拟结果与观测的时间变率最为一致,积雪覆盖率、雪深、雪水当量的相关系数分别为0.42,0.78,0.93;而雪水当量的改进效果最明显,均方根误差和偏差分别减小了54.8%和83.1%,相关系数提高了0.47;同时,CLDAS-Prcp不仅能反映积雪变量的年际变率,而且能够较准确地反映出强度较大的突发降雪事件。  相似文献   
4.
This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.  相似文献   
5.
利用GLDAS同化产品和12个CMIP5模式的输出结果,从土壤湿度对降水影响的两个中间环节出发,通过分析陆面耦合指数ILH、潜热通量—抬升凝结高度耦合指数ILCL以及抬升凝结高度ZLCL间接研究中国区域土壤湿度与降水间耦合特征,并对1958~2013年及RCP4.5辐射强迫情景下50年(2006~2055年)的4个代表性区域夏季耦合强度的年代际变化特征进行分析。研究发现:1958~2013年期间,内蒙古阴山山脉附近、新疆和青海的部分地区为夏季中国土壤湿度与降水耦合的最强区域;陆面耦合指数ILH变化幅度从高到低依次出现在华北、华南、内蒙古中部和西北地区,并在20世纪70年代中到80年代中发生转折。2006~2055年的平均而言,预估内蒙古阴山山脉附近仍为耦合最强区;与历史时期(1958~2005年)比较,新疆中部和内蒙古阴山山脉附近的耦合指数ILH增大,而广西和广东地区的则减小;对于耦合指数ILH的年代际变化(2006~2055年),2026~2035年间华北最大而华南最小,西北地区变化不大,而内蒙古中部地区的耦合强度逐渐增大。  相似文献   
6.
The Panzhihua intrusion in southwest China is part of the Emeishan Large Igneous Province and host of a large Fe-Ti-V ore deposit.During emplacement of the main intrusion,multiple generations of mafic dykes invaded carbonate wall rocks,producing a large contact aureole.We measured the oxygen-isotope composition of the intrusions,their constituent minerals,and samples of the country rock.Magnetite and plagioclase from Panzhihua intrusion haveδ18O values that are consistent with magmatic equilibrium, and formed from magmas withδ18O values that were 1-2‰higher than expected in a mantle-derived magma.The unmetamorphosed country rock has highδ18O values,ranging from 13.2‰(sandstone) to 24.6-28.6‰(dolomite).The skarns and marbles from the aureole have lowerδ18O andδ13C values than their protolith suggesting interaction with fluids that were in exchange equilibrium with the adjacent mafic magmas and especially the numerous mafic dykes that intruded the aureole.This would explain the alteration ofδ18O of the dykes which have significantly higher values than expected for a mantle-derived magma.Depending on the exactδ18O values assumed for the magma and contaminant, the amount of assimilation required to produce the elevatedδ18O value of the Panzhihua intrusion was between 8 and 13.7 wt.%,assuming simple mixing.The exact mechanism of contamination is unclear but may involve a combination of assimilation of bulk country rock,mixing with a melt of the country rock and exchange with CO2-rich fluid derived from decarbonation of the marls and dolomites.These mechanisms,particularly the latter,were probably involved in the formation of the Fe-Ti-V ores.  相似文献   
7.
钟波  王云峰  马刚  马新园 《大气科学》2018,42(1):164-177
卫星资料凭着卫星遥感的全球性、连续性和高频次观测等优势,成为一种重要的非常规资料源,但卫星观测仍然存在各种各样的观测误差,其中包含由于观测偶然性所造成的统计学上的随机误差及仪器本身和辐射传输模式等造成的系统性偏差,这些误差在很大程度上影响了卫星资料的质量。文中提出了一种能有效订正卫星观测资料系统性偏差的梯度信息同化算法,该方法用一个梯度算子进行模式变量与观测变量的梯度变换,从而达到订正系统性偏差的目的。本文利用WRF(Weather Research Forecast)模式及其同化模式WRFDA(WRF Data Assimilation system),以及AIRS(Atmospheric Infrared Sounder)资料,对台风“圆规”进行了实际的数值模拟和同化试验,数值结果表明,梯度信息同化方法能明显改善台风路径的模拟,在处理可信度较低的资料时仍然适用。另外,通过同化诊断分析,发现卫星资料的系统性偏差对于台风数值模拟有较大影响,而文中提出的梯度信息同化方法能较好的解决此类问题。  相似文献   
8.
Three major rhyolite systems in the northeastern Davis and adjacent Barrilla Mountains include lava units that bracketed a large pantelleritic ignimbrite (Gomez Tuff) in rapid eruptions spanning 300,000 years. Extensive silicic lavas formed the shields of the Star Mountain Formation (37.2 Ma-K/Ar; 36.84 Ma 39Ar/40Ar), and the Adobe Canyon Formation (37.1 Ma-K/Ar; 36.51-39Ar/40Ar). The Gomez Tuff (36.6 Ma-K/Ar; 36.74-39Ar/40Ar) blanketed a large region around the 18×24 km diameter Buckhorn caldera, within which it ponded, forming sections up to 500 m thick. Gomez eruption was preceded by pantelleritic rhyolite domes (36.87, 36.91 Ma-39Ar/40Ar), some of which blocked movement of Star Mountain lava flows. Following collapse, the Buckhorn caldera was filled by trachyte lava. Adobe Canyon rhyolite lavas then covered much of the region. Star Mountain Formation (~220 km3) is composed of multiple flows ranging from quartz trachyte to mildly peralkalic rhyolite; three major types form a total of at least six major flows in the northeastern Davis Mountains. Adobe Canyon Formation (~125 km3) contains fewer flows, some up to 180 m thick, of chemically homogenous, mildly peralkalic comendite, extending up to 40 km. Gomez Tuff (~220 km3) may represent the largest known pantellerite. It is typically less than 100 m thick in extra-caldera sections, where it shows a pyroclastic base and top, although interiors are commonly rheomorphic, containing flow banding and ramp structures. Most sections contain one cooling unit; two sections contain a smaller, upper cooling unit. Chemically, the tuff is fairly homogeneous, but is more evolved than early pantelleritic domes. Overall, although Davis Mountains silicic units were generated through open system processes, the pantellerites appear to have evolved by processes dominated by extensive fractional crystallization from parental trachytes similar to that erupted in pre- and post-caldera lavas. Comparison with the Pantelleria volcano suggests that the most likely parental magma for the Buckhorn series is transitional basalt, similar to that erupted in minor, younger Basin and Range volcanism after about 24 Ma. Roughly contemporaneous mafic lavas associated with the Buckhorn caldera appear to have assimilated or mixed with crustal melts, and, generally, may not be regarded as mafic precursors of the Buckhorn silicic rocks, They thus form a false Daly Gap as opposed to the true basalt/trachyte Daly gap of Pantelleria. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. This paper constitutes part of a special issue dedicated to Bill Bonnichsen on the petrogenesis and volcanology of anorogenic rhyolites.  相似文献   
9.
The accurate detection of heavy metal-induced stress on crop growth is important for food security and agricultural, ecological and environmental protection. Spectral sensing offers an efficient and undamaged observation tool to monitor soil and vegetation contamination. This study proposed a methodology for dynamically estimating the total cadmium (Cd) accumulation in rice tissues by assimilating spectral information into WOFOST (World Food Study) model. Based on the differences among ground hyperspectral data of rice in three experiments fields under different Cd concentration levels, the spectral indices MCARI1, NREP and RH were selected to reflect the rice stress condition and dry matter production of rice. With assimilating these sensitive spectral indices into the WOFOST + PROSPECT + SAIL model to optimize the Cd pollution stress factor fwi, the dynamic dry matter production processes of rice were adjusted. Based on the relation between dry matter production and Cd accumulation, we dynamically simulating the Cd accumulation in rice tissues. The results showed that the method performed well in dynamically estimating the total amount of Cd accumulation in rice tissues with R2 over 85%. This study suggests that the proposed method of integrating the spectral information and the crop growth model could successfully dynamically simulate the Cd accumulation in rice tissues.  相似文献   
10.
Information systems developed for different applications within the environmental domain have common characteristics, which can potentially be abstracted for sharing and reuse of design and software modules. This article presents an approach to designing for reuse by abstracting commonalities in the design of a Marine Information System (MIS), facilitating data management in a prototype operational monitoring, forecasting, and management system for the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas. A detailed study of the requirements and data analysis was carried out, and Object-Oriented Technology (OOT) is employed to encapsulate abstractions and to promote reuse of code and design. This article identifies the Object-Oriented Frameworks (OOFW) required to build the MIS. It also provides guidelines to environmental scientists for restructuring legacy software and employing modern programming techniques.  相似文献   
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