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1.
成都“2008.9.24”暴雨的中尺度数值模拟   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
为了更好的研究四川成都地区2008年9月23日~25日强降水天气的物理机制,利用中尺度天气预报模式(Weather Research Forecast,WRF)模拟了此次过程,并结合FY-2号C星云图资料,对过程的发生、发展过程进行分析后发现,此次暴雨过程为低层弱低压辐合,同时台风"黑格比"登陆后带来大量水汽,并借助西伸的西太平洋副高源源不断的向四川盆地输送,另外存在来自南方孟加拉湾水汽的持续供应,对流云团形成于地面低压与西伸副高的交界处,并沿着副高边缘由西南向东北移动,雨带分布在副高边缘气压梯度大的地方,模拟结果与观测事实基本相符。利用WRF模式模拟暴雨产生的环流形势,配合卫星云图,能进一步揭示暴雨产生的物理机制,可作为深化暴雨研究的有效手段。  相似文献   
2.
基于情景模拟的天津市滨海新区2020年暴雨内涝风险评估   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
基于多灾种复合动态风险评估理论,依据滨海新区2020年人口规划、土地利用规划以及社会经济发展计划,根据地面沉降和海平面上升预测结果设计了最不利、适中和最理想化三种情景;在此基础上,自行开发了基于GIS的洪水淹没区计算模块,模拟计算不同重现期暴雨内涝的淹没范围、淹没深度及淹没损失。结果表明:2020年,发生1 000 a一遇、200 a一遇和50 a一遇暴雨时,在最不利的情景一下:天津市滨海新区分别将有32.73%,29.34%和26.01%的土地不同程度受淹,受淹人口分别为338万、305万和264万,淹没损失分别达220.89亿元、181.39亿元和139.12亿元。  相似文献   
3.
库姆塔格沙漠春季近地面风场、温度场特征   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
吕萍  董治宝 《中国沙漠》2012,32(2):442-446
 利用中尺度区域预报模式系统对库姆塔格沙漠及其周边地区春季近地层风场与温度场分布特征进行了模拟和分析。结果发现,受青藏高原地形影响,偏北气流向南运行在途经库姆塔格沙漠的过程中发生3个分支:①在沙漠东部气流逐渐转变为西北风吹向甘肃省;②中西部气流以较强的东北风流向塔克拉玛干沙漠;③另一部分气流继续顺势南下流入青海省。沙漠区域温度从北向南逐渐降低,在青海省的边界上出现一个低温带,然后温度又开始增加。  相似文献   
4.
IPCC A1B情景下中国西南地区气候变化的数值模拟   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM全球海气耦合模式模拟的当代(1986-2000年)和IPCC A1B情景下未来(2011-2025年)2×15a的模拟输出格点场资料,驱动20 km高水平分辨率区域气候模式RegCM3进行西南地区气候变化的数值模拟,主要分析未来地面温度和降水的可能变化。结果表明:①通过与32个地面气象站观测资料和CRU资料对比分析,RegCM3能够很好的模拟研究区基准时段地面温度和降水的局地分布特征。②A1B情景下未来西南地区年、四季平均温度均明显增加,北部温度变化幅度大于南部。③最高/最低温度一致升高,冬季最高/最低温度变化幅度大于夏季;年、秋冬季降水有所增加,冬季降水增加明显,而春夏季降水略有减少。④研究区未来春夏季温度升高、降水减少的趋势可能导致局部地区高温、干旱等极端天气的可能性增大;同时冬季降水增加,可能加重局部地区洪涝灾害的风险。  相似文献   
5.
喜马拉雅山珠峰绒布冰川流域径流模拟   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
基于2009年5-10月喜马拉雅山北坡珠峰绒布冰川流域实测水文气象数据、50m分辨率DEM和中国第一次冰川编目资料,在HYCYMODEL水文模型中加入冰川消融子模块,模拟了绒布冰川流域径流过程.冰川消融子模块以海拔5 180m基站的实测日气温、日降水作为模型输入,把气温、降水插值到该流域40个高程带中,分别计算各高程带的冰川消融和裸地蒸发,并考虑液态降水对冰面的加热作用.野外气象观测表明:2009年5-10月流域海拔5 180~5 750m内,月气温递减率在0.63~0.73℃.(100m)^-1之间,均值为0.70℃.(100m)^-1;同期降水观测显示,海拔5 180m以下降水梯度为-7.3mm.(100m)^-1,该高度之上降水梯度为22mm.(100m)^-1.HYCYMODEL水文模型的敏感性检验表明,该流域径流变化主要受气温影响,降水变化引起的径流变化较小,气温和降水变化对流域径流的影响是非线性的.  相似文献   
6.
Real‐time hybrid simulation is a viable experiment technique to evaluate the performance of structures equipped with rate‐dependent seismic devices when subject to dynamic loading. The integration algorithm used to solve the equations of motion has to be stable and accurate to achieve a successful real‐time hybrid simulation. The implicit HHT α‐algorithm is a popular integration algorithm for conducting structural dynamic time history analysis because of its desirable properties of unconditional stability for linear elastic structures and controllable numerical damping for high frequencies. The implicit form of the algorithm, however, requires iterations for nonlinear structures, which is undesirable for real‐time hybrid simulation. Consequently, the HHT α‐algorithm has been implemented for real‐time hybrid simulation using a fixed number of substep iterations. The resulting HHT α‐algorithm with a fixed number of substep iterations is believed to be unconditionally stable for linear elastic structures, but research on its stability and accuracy for nonlinear structures is quite limited. In this paper, a discrete transfer function approach is utilized to analyze the HHT α‐algorithm with a fixed number of substep iterations. The algorithm is shown to be unconditionally stable for linear elastic structures, but only conditionally stable for nonlinear softening or hardening structures. The equivalent damping of the algorithm is shown to be almost the same as that of the original HHT α‐algorithm, while the period elongation varies depending on the structural nonlinearity and the size of the integration time‐step. A modified form of the algorithm is proposed to improve its stability for use in nonlinear structures. The stability of the modified algorithm is demonstrated to be enhanced and have an accuracy that is comparable to that of the existing HHT α‐algorithm with a fixed number of substep iterations. Both numerical and real‐time hybrid simulations are conducted to verify the modified algorithm. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the modified algorithm for real‐time testing. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
7.
Best estimate seismic analysis are generally based on time‐domain simulations of structural responses. The seismic load is then modeled by a stochastic process representing ground motion. For this purpose, the analyst can use recorded accelerograms or work with synthetically generated ones. The number of ground motion time‐histories available for a given scenario and site condition is limited and generally not sufficient for carrying out more advanced probabilistic structural response analysis. It is then necessary to have at our disposal methods that allow for generating synthetic accelerograms that realistically characterize earthquake ground motions. However, most of the methods proposed in literature for generating synthetic accelerograms do not accurately reproduce the natural variability of ground motion parameters (such as PGA, cumulative absolute velocity, and Arias intensity) observed for recorded time histories. In this paper, we introduce a new method for generating synthetic ground motion, based on Karhunen‐Loève decomposition and a non‐Gaussian stochastic model. The proposed method enables the structural analyst to simulate ground motion time histories featuring the properties mentioned above. To demonstrate its capability, we study the influence of the simulation method on different ground motion parameters and on soil response spectra. We finally compute fragility curves to illustrate the practical application of the proposed method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
8.
The way in which rocks and engineering materials heat‐up and dry‐out in the intertidal zone is of relevance to both weathering and ecology. These behaviours can be measured in the laboratory under controlled conditions designed to replicate those occurring in the field. Previous studies have demonstrated differences in thermal behaviours between rock types and through time as a result of soiling in terrestrial environments, but the influence of weathering and colonization on rock behaviours in the intertidal zone has not been previously assessed. We measured the warming and drying of blocks of rock (limestone and granite) and marine concrete during ‘low‐tide’ events simulated in the laboratory, before and after a period of exposure (eight months) on rock platforms in Cornwall, UK. As well as differences between the material types, temperatures of control (unexposed) and field‐exposed blocks differed in the order of 1 to 2 °C. Drying behaviours were also different after field exposure. Differences during the first few hours of exposure to air and heat were attributed to discolouration and albedo effects. Over longer periods of time, changes in the availability of near‐surface pore water as a result of micro‐scale bioerosion of limestone and the development of bio‐chemical crusts on marine concrete [observed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM)] are suggested as mechanisms enhancing and reducing, respectively, the efficiency of evaporative cooling. The retention of moisture by epilithic biofilms may also influence thermal and drying behaviours of granite. These observations represent one of the first examples of cross‐scalar biogeomorphic linkages in the intertidal zone. The significance of the results for the subsequent efficiency of weathering, and near‐surface micro‐climatic conditions experienced by colonizing organisms is discussed. The involvement of microorganisms in the creation of more (or less) ecologically stressful conditions through the alteration of substratum geomorphic properties and behaviours is suggested as an example of ‘biogeomorphic ecosystem engineering’. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
9.
Using the output data of 20 coupled climate models used in IPCC AR4 and observational data from NCEP, the capability of the models to simulate the boreal winter climatology of the East Asian sea level pressure, 850-hPa wind, and surface air temperature; the decadal variations of the East Asian winter mon- soon (EAWM) intensity and EAWM-related circulation, and the interdecadal variations of EAWM-related circulation are systematically evaluated. The results indicate that 16 models can weakly simulate the declin- ing trend of the EAWM in the 1980s. More than half of the models produce relatively reasonable decadal variations of the EAWM-related circulation and the interdecadal di?erences of EAWM-related circulation between the boreal winters of 1960-1985 and 1986-1998, including the weakened Siberian high, Aleutian low, and East Asian trough, the enhanced Arctic oscillation and North Pacific oscillation, and a deepened polar vortex. It is found that the performance of the multi-selected-model ensemble in reproducing the spatial dis- tribution of the variations is encouraging, although the variational amplitudes are generally smaller than the observations. In addition, it is found that BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3.1_T63, CNRM_CM3, CSIRO_MK3.0, GISS-ER, INM_CM3.0, and MRI_CGCM2.3.2 perform well in every aspect  相似文献   
10.
姜学恭  陈受钧  顾润源  陈磊 《气象学报》2012,70(6):1223-1234
在初步明确东亚沙尘气溶胶对流层-平流层输送监测事实的基础上,利用观测资料、NCEP再分析资料以及基于中尺度天气模式MM5的数值模拟方法,对一次蒙古气旋沙尘暴过程中沙尘对流层-平流层输送问题进行了初步分析.结果表明:斜压不稳定是本次蒙古气旋发展的主要强迫要素,伴随气旋发展成熟,高空切断低涡的形成引导高空急流下落并诱发对流层顶折叠和高空位涡下传.对流层顶折叠区呈漏斗状,底部达500 hPa左右.高空急流产生近似垂直的下落,并在高空切断低涡的南侧和东侧达到最强.在对流层顶折叠区周边的300-500 hPa,上升气流与低涡区偏西、偏南、偏东气流叠加,或水平横穿折叠的对流层顶,或斜升并准垂直地穿过下落的对流层顶到达平流层,且随时间的推移,空气质点能够进一步抵达平流层中部(100 hPa).轨迹分析表明,沙尘天气区对流层低层的空气质点在气旋涡旋上升气流的驱动下呈气旋式盘旋上升,并在对流层高层形成分支,一支穿过对流层顶到达平流层,并在平流层向下游进行反气旋式螺旋运动,另一支则留在对流层高层并向下游进行准水平的气旋式螺旋运动.在高空位涡下传过程中,主要产生平流层到对流层的净输送;高空位涡停止下传之后则出现对流层到平流层的净输送,且强度随时间呈指数型增长.这一特征有利于形成更强的沙尘对流层平流层输送.  相似文献   
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