2016与1998年春季北大西洋海表温度异常的差异及成因     

薛文璟  余锦华  陈林 《热带海洋学报》2020,39(3):19-30

利用再分析资料以及混合层海温诊断方程, 研究1997—1998与2015—2016年超级厄尔尼诺次年北大西洋海表温度异常(sea surface temperature anomalies, SSTA)的差异及成因。结果显示, 北大西洋SSTA在1998年春季呈明显正负正三极型式分布, 而在2016年呈弱的负正负型态。诊断热带北大西洋SSTA的影响因素表明, 1998年春季暖SSTA除了之前研究强调的海洋表面向大气的潜热输送异常减少, 以及吸收太阳辐射的增加外, 海洋动力过程即Ekman纬向漂流也起着重要的作用。热力过程与厄尔尼诺峰值后出现的北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)负位相有关, 其可引起亚速尔高压减弱, 产生西南风异常, 通过风-蒸发-海表温度(sea surface temperature, SST)反馈机制使热带北大西洋蒸发减弱, 海表增暖, 沃克环流下沉支的东移对这一增暖也有贡献。与1997—1998厄尔尼诺事件不同, 2015—2016厄尔尼诺事件没有强迫出负位相NAO, 而是出现弱NAO正位相, 热带北大西洋为弱的东风异常, 使海表发生一定的冷却, 形成2016春季北大西洋SSTA与1998年的明显差异。  相似文献   

WP和NAO对中国东南部冬季温度的协同影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

施春华  孙伟佳  郭栋 《大气科学学报》2021,44(3):394-404

利用NCEP/NCAR和ERA-Interim再分析资料,通过多元线性回归等分析方法,研究了西太平洋遥相关型(Western Pacific teleconnection, WP)和北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)的不同配置对中国东南部冬季气温的影响。结果表明:WP正位相年,中低纬太平洋被异常暖性高压控制,其局地作用使得中国东南部温度偏高;NAO正位相年,其遥相关作用通过南、北两支波列,分别调控南、北支槽系统,协同作用使得中国东南部30°N附近温度偏低。考虑这两种遥相关型的共同作用,当WP和NAO同位相时,两者作用部分抵消,中国东南部温度变化不显著;当WP正位相、NAO负位相时,两者同步的加热效应使得中国东南部显著暖异常;当WP负位相、NAO正位相时,两者同步的冷却效应使得中国东南部显著冷异常。  相似文献   

北太平洋冬季西部发展型天气尺度涡旋对平均流的影响          下载免费PDF全文

刘丽  谭言科  夏淋淋 《大气科学学报》2019,42(2):174-183

在中纬度北太平洋大气强斜压区,存在频繁的天气尺度涡旋活动,通过水分、动量和能量输送维持大气环流。为了进一步研究天气尺度涡旋发生发展与大尺度环流之间的联系,利用1981—2013年再分析资料,筛选出西部发展型天气尺度涡旋114个偏强日和87个偏弱日,给出了西部发展型天气尺度涡旋异常导致的动力和热力强迫的变化,同时从能量转换的角度分析了西部发展型天气尺度涡旋与平均流之间的相互作用,并探讨了其与西太平洋遥相关型的关系。结果表明:西部发展型天气尺度涡旋通过动力强迫和热力强迫影响平均流,其中动力强迫主要造成北太平洋中纬度上空的西风气流加速并向北移动;热力强迫的作用则是减弱中纬度大气斜压性。同时,强西部发展型天气尺度涡旋有利于西北太平洋上空对流层低层斜压有效位能向扰动动能的转化增大和扰动动能向平均流的转化增大,有利于中纬度地区对流层高层平均流向扰动动能的转化增大。此外,西部发展型天气尺度涡旋通过与平均流的作用,对维持西太平洋遥相关型的负位相有一定影响。  相似文献   

1949—2019 年影响山东的热带气旋时空分布及极端降水和大气环流异常          下载免费PDF全文

欧阳婧怡  黄菲  许士斌  曹倩 《山东气象》2021,41(4):1-10

使用中国气象局热带气旋资料中心的热带气旋最佳路径数据集和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料提供的月平均数据,对北上影响山东的热带气旋（tropical cyclone,TC）及其造成的极端降水进行统计分析,并揭示了有利于 TC北移影响山东的大气环流特征。结果表明：影响山东的 TC主要出现 于 6—9 月,其中盛夏时节（7、8 月）TC对山东影响最大;TC影响山东时,强度主要为台风及以下等 级,或已发生变性;TC会引发山东极端降水事件,TC极端降水多出现在夏秋季（7—9 月）,其中8月的占比最大,9月次之,TC降水在极端降水事件中的占比约为 10%,但年际变化大,有些年份占比达60%以上,特别是1990 年以来 TC对极端降水的贡献显著增强;影响山东的 TC主要生成于西 北太平洋,多为转向型路径;当500 hPa位势高度异常场呈太平洋一日本遥相关型的正位相时,TC更易北上影响山东,此时西北太平洋副热带高压位置偏北,其外围气流会引导TC北上转向,对华东地区造成影响;850 hPa上,南海至西北太平洋存在异常气旋式环流,对流活跃,夏季风环流和季风槽加强,有利于TC的生成和发展,同时,华东、华南上空有异常上升运动,涡度增大,垂直风切变减小,水汽充沛,TC登陆后强度能得到较好的维持。  相似文献   

Lake Ladoga ice phenology: Mean condition and extremes during the last 65 years     

Sergey Karetnikov  Mikhail Naumenko 《水文研究》2011,25(18):2859-2867

Winter conditions play an important role for the largest lake in Europe—Lake Ladoga. The ice cover lasts for 171 ± 3 days on average from the early November until the mid‐May. We investigated the ice regime of Lake Ladoga using a constructed ice database of aircraft surveys and satellite images. More than 1250 surveys of the lake's ice cover from 1943 to 2010 were collected and analysed to determine mean and extreme ice conditions for winters of different types of severity. The time series of ice cover percentage over the lake was plotted. On average, 18 observational ice charts were made every winter. Individual ice phenology records show considerable year‐to‐year variation. For this reason, records typically have been combined and analysed as groups (categories). Extremely cold winters were determined as winters with complete ice cover that lasts more than three months which is approximately 90% quartiles from all winters with complete ice cover. The lake surface was completely covered with ice for more than three months during 5 seasons. Extremely warm winters when the maximum ice cover was less than 70% of the lake area occurred during 5 seasons as well. A basic relationship between the winter severity as winter maximum of accumulated freezing degree‐days (AFDD) and the earlier derived Relative Ice Cover Index (RICI) was established. We have used teleconnection indices such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the period from October to May for estimation of different types of Lake Ladoga's ice conditions. The AO index in winter months and local winter maximum of AFDD explained much of the interannual variation in ice cover. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Ensemble prediction of regional droughts using climate inputs and the SVM–copula approach          下载免费PDF全文

Poulomi Ganguli  M. Janga Reddy 《水文研究》2014,28(19):4989-5009

In this study, the climate teleconnections with meteorological droughts are analysed and used to develop ensemble drought prediction models using a support vector machine (SVM)–copula approach over Western Rajasthan (India). The meteorological droughts are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In the analysis of large‐scale climate forcing represented by climate indices such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on regional droughts, it is found that regional droughts exhibits interannual as well as interdecadal variability. On the basis of potential teleconnections between regional droughts and climate indices, SPI‐based drought forecasting models are developed with up to 3 months' lead time. As traditional statistical forecast models are unable to capture nonlinearity and nonstationarity associated with drought forecasts, a machine learning technique, namely, support vector regression (SVR), is adopted to forecast the drought index, and the copula method is used to model the joint distribution of observed and predicted drought index. The copula‐based conditional distribution of an observed drought index conditioned on predicted drought index is utilized to simulate ensembles of drought forecasts. Two variants of drought forecast models are developed, namely a single model for all the periods in a year and separate models for each of the four seasons in a year. The performance of developed models is validated for predicting drought time series for 10 years' data. Improvement in ensemble prediction of drought indices is observed for combined seasonal model over the single model without seasonal partitions. The results show that the proposed SVM–copula approach improves the drought prediction capability and provides estimation of uncertainty associated with drought predictions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

重庆春播期间降水特征及其与北太平洋海温的关系     

周浩  程炳岩  罗孳孳 《气象》2011,37(9):1134-1139

运用NCEP/NCAR全球高度场再分析资料、美国NOAA全球海温资料以及重庆34个站春播期间降水资料,对重庆春播期间降水特征及其与前期秋季海温场的关系进行分析。结果表明：重庆春播期间降水与前期秋季北太平洋暖流附近（20°～40°N、165°E～140°W）的海温有显著负相关关系,而与北太平洋阿拉斯加暖流附近（40°～60°N、165°E～140°W）的海温则有显著正相关关系,即南、北海温呈现相反的相关性。当前期秋季北太平洋副热带地区海温异常偏高,中高纬度地区海温异常偏低时,后期重庆春播期间降水将异常偏多;反之,北太平洋副热带地区海温异常偏低,中高纬度地区海温异常偏高时,重庆春播期间降水将异常偏少。针对秋季北太平洋南、北海温异常的反相分布特征定义了用于诊断和预测重庆春播期间降水的判别指数,该指数代表了北太平洋海温异常南北反相的分布特征。该前期判别指数具有重要的天气气候学意义和一定的指示和预测能力。其代表的北太平洋海温异常与西太平洋区域500 hPa高度场有密切联系,其可使大气环流场产生持续性的异常,大气环流的异常特征能一直持续到春播期间,将影响重庆春播期间降水变化。  相似文献   

ENSO事件对云南及临近地区春末初夏降水的影响   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

杨亚力  杜岩  陈海山 《大气科学》2011,35(4):729-738

本文采用合成及相关分析的方法,应用55年中国降水资料、美国NOAA海表温度资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了ENSO事件对我国云南及其邻近地区春末初夏降水的影响及物理机理.研究结果表明:(1)在El Ni(n)o (La Ni(n)a)年,云南大部分地区4～5月降水偏少(多),东部地区相关信号尤其明显;(2)...  相似文献   

Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection,streamflow forecasting and interannual variability     

FRANCIS H. S. CHIEW  THOMAS A. McMAHON 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):505-522

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been linked to climate anomalies throughout the world. This paper presents an overview of global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection and identifies regions where the relationship may be exploited to forecast streamflow several months ahead. The teleconnection is investigated by fitting a first harmonic to 24-month El Niño streamflow composites from 581 catchments worldwide and the potential for forecasting is investigated by calculating the lag correlation between streamflow and two indicators of ENSO. The analyses indicate clear ENSO-streamflow teleconnections in many catchments, some of which are consistent across large geographical regions. Strong and regionally consistent ENSO-streamflow teleconnections are identified in Australia and New Zealand, South and Central America, and weaker signals are identified in some parts of Africa and North America. The results suggest that the ENSO-streamflow relationship and the serial correlation in streamflow can be used to successfully forecast streamflow. The streamflow forecasts can be used to help manage water resources, particularly in systems with high interannual variability in Australia, southern and drier parts of Africa and some areas of North America.  相似文献   

Year aridity index patterns in northwest China and the relationship to summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature     

YAN Yan  ZHAO Xinyi  ZHOU Liping 《海洋学报(英文版)》2008,27(3):161-171

Aim to linking the variability of drought in northwest China to the oceanic influence of North Atlantic SSTs at the background of global warming and at the regional climate change shifting stages, year aridity index variations in northwest China and summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature （SST） variations are examined for the 44 a period of 1961-2004 using singular value decomposition （SVD） analysis. Results show that the SST anomalies （SSTA）in the North Atlantic in summer reflected three basic models. The first SVD mode of SST pattern shows a dipole - like variation with the positive center located at southwest and negative center at northeast of extratropical North Atlantic. And it strongly relates to the positive trend in AI variation in northwest China. The second coupled modes display the coherent positive anomalies in extratropical North Atlantic SST and the marked opposite trend of AI variability between north and south of Xinjiang. In addition, the lag correlation analysis of the first mode of SSTA and geopotential heights at 500 hPa variations also shows that the indication of the former influencing the latter configuration, which result in higher air temperature and less precipitation when the SSTA in the North Atlantic Ocean in summer motivated Eurasian circulation of EA pattern, further to influence the wet - dry variations in northwest China by the ocean-to - atmosphere forcing.  相似文献