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排序方式: 共有139条查询结果,搜索用时 234 毫秒
1.
基于国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)历史模拟试验(historical run)的模式输出结果以及遥感数据,采用相关分析、均方根误差、标准差等统计方法,评估了13个气候(或地球)系统模式对欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率的模拟能力,在此基础上,采用多模式集合平均的方法对未来不同温室气体排放情景下(rcp2.6、rcp4.5和rcp8.5)欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率的变化进行预估。结果显示:尽管各模式模拟的积雪覆盖率在高原地区与观测差异较大,但总体看来模式能够对欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率的空间形态、季节变化及年际变化特征做出较好地模拟。未来预估结果表明,多模式集合平均预估的欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率从2006年到2040年左右减少趋势非常明显,且不同排放情景下模式模拟的积雪减少速率非常接近;然而,大约从2040年之后,不同排放情景下的积雪覆盖率减小趋势的差异越来越大,rcp2.6和rcp4.5下积雪覆盖率的变化趋于平缓,而rcp8.5情景下,积雪覆盖率一直减少,冬季、春季和秋季都明显减少,减少最显著的区域位于西欧和青藏高原地区。由此可见,控制温室气体的排放对于未来欧亚大陆积雪的变化是至关重要的。 相似文献
2.
欧亚大陆夏季地表热力异常与同期中国东部夏季降水的可能联系 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用ERA-40再分析资料、CRU TS3.0数据集以及中国站点观测数据,分析了欧亚大陆夏季地表热力异常的变化特征,在此基础上探讨了我国东部夏季降水与同期欧亚大陆地表热力异常之间的可能联系。研究发现,欧亚大陆地表气温与浅层土壤温度的大尺度变化特征基本一致:经验正交函数分解第一模态空间型表现为大陆西南部分区域与欧亚大陆其他区域反相变化,对应的时间系数均在20世纪80年代末出现转折。当夏季欧亚中纬度印度以北地区和我国中东部地区地表气温偏高时,东亚夏季风的强度偏强,西太平洋副热带高压位置偏东,我国东部偏南风偏强,江淮流域水汽偏少,且气流上升运动偏弱,降水偏少;华南和北方地区水汽偏多,且气流上升运动偏强,降水偏多;反之亦然。当欧亚大陆中高纬贝加尔湖以东及以西地区夏季地表气温偏高,而我国东北部地区夏季地表气温偏低时,东亚夏季风的强度偏强,西太平洋副热带高压位置偏西,我国东南部地区偏南风异常偏强,有利于水汽向江淮流域输送,东南沿海及内蒙古中部水汽偏少,且气流上升运动偏弱,降水偏少;而东部其余地区水汽偏多,且气流上升运动偏强,降水偏多;反之亦然。 相似文献
3.
在对逐日气象资料进行纬向谐波分析的基础上, 对比和讨论了2007/2008年冬季强极涡期间和2008/2009冬季弱极涡期间平流层和对流层不同波数的行星波的变化特征, 特别关注强极涡或弱极涡发生之后, 500 hPa 沿60°N和30°N行星波1波和2波振幅和位相的差异, 以及相应的500 hPa位势场的差异, 进而讨论为什么不同的平流层极涡异常会对东亚有不同的影响, 特别讨论为什么同一种极涡异常, 对我国南北方近地面气温的影响会不同。结果表明:平流层极涡发生异常时, 平流层行星波活动有明显的异常。随着极涡异常的下传, 对流层行星波的振幅和位相也有明显的变化, 而且, 对于不同的纬度带, 其变化又有不同, 表现为:2008年1月强极涡发生之后, 500 hPa行星波1波和2波的扰动都向南伸, 而2009年1月的弱极涡(SSW)期间和之后, 1波和2波的扰动都偏北; 在对流层, 强极涡和弱极涡发生之后不但行星波1波和2波的振幅有所差异, 其位相也有明显的不同。特别是, 其位相的差异还随纬度而变化。就同一年(或者说对于同是强极涡或者同是弱极涡)而言, 无论是1波还是2波, 在60°N和30°N附近的扰动相比, 几乎反位相。这样就使得它们的500 hPa 位势场也有明显不同:在东半球, 主要表现为乌拉尔高压和东亚大槽的强度和位置不同。2008年1月强极涡发生之后, 乌拉尔高压和东亚大槽东移, 不利于冷空气向欧亚大陆北部(包括我国北方)的输送, 使这些地区的温度偏高;而2009年1月弱极涡之后, 东亚大槽西退, 利于冷空气向欧亚大陆北部输送, 导致这些地区较冷。对于同一种极涡异常(如2008强极涡或者2009弱极涡)由于南方和北方行星波扰动的位相不同, 对南方和北方冷暖空气的输送也就不一样。所以同一种极涡异常对(我国)南北地区的温度影响是不同的。 相似文献
4.
N.I. Pavlenkova 《Russian Geology and Geophysics》2011,52(9):1016-1027
Deep seismic investigation carried out in Russia in long-range profiles with peaceful nuclear explosions allowed clarifying in details the structure of the upper mantle and the transition zone down to the depth of 700 km within the huge territory of old and young platforms of Northern Eurasia. Variability of horizontal heterogeneity of the upper mantle depending on the depth serves to qualitative estimation of its rheological properties. The upper part of the mantle to the depth of 80–100 km is characterized by the block structure with significant velocity steps of seismic waves at the blocks often divided by deep faults. This is the most rigid part of lithosphere. Below 100 km horizontal heterogeneity is insignificant, i.e., at these depths the substance is more plastic and not capable to retain block structure. On the lithosphere bottom at the depth of 200–250 km plasticity increase is observed as well but the zone of the lower velocities that might have been bound with the area of partial melting (asthenosphere) has not been found. These three layers with different rheological properties are divided by seismic boundaries presented by thin layering zones with alternating higher and lower velocities. At the specified depths any phase boundaries have been distinguished. These thin layering zones are assumed to form due to higher concentration of deep fluids at some levels of depths where mechanical properties and permeability of substance change. Insignificant number of fluids may result in appearance of streaks with partial or film melting at relatively low temperature—to the rise of the weakened zones where subhorizontal shifts are possible. According to seismic data in many world regions seismic boundaries are also observed at the depth of about 100 and 200 km; they may be globally spread. There are signs that areas of xenoliths formation and earthquake concentration, i.e., zones of high deformations, are confined to these depths. 相似文献
5.
Evidence for significant clockwise rotations of the Korean Peninsula during Cretaceous 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Youn Soo Lee Hyun-Chul Han Jae Ha Hwang Weon-Seo Kee Bok Chul Kim 《Gondwana Research》2011,20(4):904-918
In an effort to evaluate the Cretaceous magnetostratigraphy for the Korean Peninsula and to establish the tectonic coherence of its various elements, we collected paleomagnetic data from 121 samples from 20 sites within the Chilgok Formation (108.3–109.9 Ma) in the Gyeongsang Basin. Together with previously published data, we evaluate the results from a total of 163 sites in the basin.We combine our age model with results from recent stratigraphic, paleomagnetic and radiometric geochemical studies. In this study, we found that two distinct declination shifts decrease with younging direction, indicating two clockwise rotational events of the Korean Peninsula with respect to the Eurasia continent. The earlier event took place during 130–100 Ma (Phase I, newly termed “Goguryeo Disturbance”) and a later one during 80–50 Ma (Phase III, belonging to “Bulguksa Orogeny”). The mean rotation rate in the interval from 115.2 to 103.8 Ma (Phase I) is about 0.74°/Ma, while the rate from 90.9 to 79.8 Ma (Phase II) is 0.19°/Ma. Based on paleolatitude change during Phase I, we infer that the Korean Peninsula (eastern part of the Sino-Korea Block) migrated southward about 300 km after the complete amalgamation of the Sino-Korea Block into the Eurasian continent resulting in N–S compression within the Korean peninsula and Manchuria. Large-scale strike-slip faults (e.g., Tan-Lu Fault, Okcheon Boundary Fault) were probably rejuvenated in the Sino-Korea Block during Phase I. 相似文献
6.
7.
8.
Based on remote sensing snow water equivalent (SWE) data, the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attending
the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) was first evaluated by computing the different
percentage, spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation of biases during 1979–2000. Then, the diagnosed ten models that
performed better simulation in Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in
2002–2060. Results show that SWE will decrease significantly for Eurasia as a whole in the next 50 years. Spatially, significant
decreasing trends dominate Eurasia except for significant increase in the northeastern part. Seasonally, decreasing proportion will
be greatest in summer indicating that snow cover in warmer seasons is more sensitive to climate warming. However, absolute decreasing
trends are not the greatest in winter, but in spring. This is caused by the greater magnitude of negative trends, but smaller
positive trends in spring than in winter. The changing characteristics of increasing in eastern Eurasia and decreasing in western
Eurasia and over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau favor the viewpoint that there will be more rainfall in North China and less in the
middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Additionally, the decreasing rate and extent with significant decreasing
trends under SRES A2 are greater than those under SRES B1, indicating that the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) will speed
up the decreasing rate of snow cover both temporally and spatially. It is crucial to control the discharge of GHG emissions for
mitigating the disappearance of snow cover over Eurasia. 相似文献
9.
利用NCEP再分析资料,对2008年8~9月内蒙主着陆场区强对流天气频发和降水异常偏多现象,研究其形成的气候背景和大尺度环流特征.结果表明:前期赤道西太平洋海表温度异常偏低、欧亚和青藏高原积雪异常偏深是其前期气候背景.极涡中心8月位于东半球和9月位于西半球,是场区前期降水偏多和后期气温偏高的原因之一.欧亚经向环流的偏强,有利于南北方冷暖空气的交汇.副热带高压偏强偏西及活跃的印缅槽为场区提供了充沛的水汽和强对流天气必要的扰动能量.中低层偏南风和偏北风在淮河以北地区汇合与维持,是场区降水异常和强对流偏多的主要原因. 相似文献
10.
Reconstruction of fire spread within wildland fire events in Northern Eurasia from the MODIS active fire product 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Russian boreal forests have been reshaped by wildland fire for millennia. While fire is a natural component of boreal ecosystems, it impacts various aspects of the environment and affects human well-being. Often fires occur over large remote areas with limited access, which makes their ground-based observation difficult. A significant progress has been made in mapping burned area from satellite imagery, which provides consistent and fairly unbiased estimates of fire impact on areas of interest at multiple scales. Although the information provided by burned area products is highly important, the spatio-temporal dynamics of individual fire events and their impact are less known. In high northern latitudes of Northern Eurasia, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) makes up to four daily observations from each of the Terra and Aqua satellites providing consistent data on fire development with high temporal frequency. Here we introduce an approach to reconstruct the development of fire events based on active fire detections from MODIS. Fire Spread Reconstruction (FSR) provides a means for characterization of fire occurrence over large territories from remotely sensed data. Individual fire detections are clustered within a GIS environment based on a set of rules determining proximity between fire observations in space and time. FSR determines the number of fire events, their approximate size, duration, and fire spread rate and allows for the analysis of fire occurrence and spread as a function of vegetation, fire season, fire weather and other parameters. FSR clusters were compared to burned scars mapped from Landsat7/ETM+ imagery over Yakutia (Russia). While some smaller burn scars were found to be formed through a continuous burning of a single fire event, large burned areas in Siberia were created by a constellation of fire events incorporating over 100 individual fire clusters. Geographic regions were found to have a stronger influence on the rates of fire activity in the area compared to vegetation zones. In addition, fire spread rates do not directly correlate with the intensity of a given fire season. FSR is also used to identify the points of ignition for individual fire events in spatio-temporal domain for fire danger and fire threat modeling. This approach presents another step towards the more complete characterization of fire events from remotely sensed data. 相似文献