Statistical characterization of frost zones: Case of tea freeze damage in the Kenyan highlands     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

Frequent frost occurrences in the Kenyan highlands have had devastating effects on agricultural productivity. With inadequate management systems to mitigate the impacts, farmers have often had to bear the burden of losses resulting from frost damage. While agriculture in Kenya remains dependent on weather and climate, the agricultural economy of Kenya continues to suffer, underscoring the need for building local knowledge as basis for development of early warning systems. The current paper attempts to delineate frost zones by statistically characterizing them based on known risk factors related to topography (elevation, convexity, aspect, upslope flow length) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Through binary logistic regression, a logistic regression model was developed utilizing observation data (frost occurrence and non-occurrence) as a binary dependent variable to estimate the probability of frost occurrence. Assuming a 0.5 probability cut-off threshold between frost occurrence and non-occurrence, an overall accuracy of 81% with area under Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curve of 0.88 was obtained. No evidence of lack of model fit was detected. This model outperforms the currently operational model that utilizes MODIS LST alone to detect frost zones in the Kenyan tea plantations. It provides an improved method for effective delineation of frost zones by incorporating local topographic characteristics.  相似文献   

河西走廊东部一次霜冻天气过程成因及其对农业的影响     

钱莉  杨鑫  滕杰 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2019,13(5):114-121

2016年5月15日清晨河西走廊东部发生区域性强霜冻天气,对农林业生产造成了2004年以来最为严重的灾害。本文利用实时MICAPS常规观测资料、物理量场和河西走廊东部区域内6个国家自动气象观测站和93个区域气象站观测资料,对这次冻害天气过程的天气学成因进行分析,在此基础上分析了霜冻对农业的影响。结果表明强冷空气爆发是造成冻害的直接原因;0 cm地面温度和气温≤0 ℃持续时间长,导致农林作物深度冻伤;前期气温偏高使得农林作物发育期提前,加之霜冻出现时间偏迟,农林作物抵抗冻害的能力明显下降,冻害影响加重;冻害发生后,温度急剧上升、湿度迅速减小,作物水分强烈蒸腾,作物细胞失去受损,导致受灾程度加重。  相似文献   

Summer season variability of the north residual cap of Mars as observed by the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS-TES)     

W.M. Calvin  T.N. Titus 《Planetary and Space Science》2008,56(2):212-226

Previous observations have noted the change in albedo in a number of North Pole bright outliers and in the distribution of bright ice deposits between Mariner 9, Viking, and Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data sets. Changes over the summer season as well as between regions at the same season (L_s) in different years have been observed. We used the bolometric albedo and brightness temperature channels of the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) on the MGS spacecraft to monitor north polar residual ice cap variations between Mars years and within the summer season for three northern Martian summers between July 1999 and April 2003. Large-scale brightness variations are observed in four general areas: (1) the patchy outlying frost deposits from 90 to 270°E, 75 to 80°N; (2) the large “tail” below the Chasma Boreale and its associated plateau from 315 to 45°E, 80 to 85°N, that we call the “Boreale Tongue” and in Hyperboreae Undae; (3) the troughed terrain in the region from 0 to 120°E longitude (the lower right on a polar stereographic projection) we have called “Shackleton's Grooves” and (4) the unit mapped as residual ice in Olympia Planitia. We also note two areas which seem to persist as cool and bright throughout the summer and between Mars years. One is at the “source” of Chasma Boreale (∼15°E, 85°N) dubbed “McMurdo”, and the “Cool and Bright Anomaly (CABA)” noted by Kieffer and Titus 2001. TES Mapping of Mars’ north seasonal cap. Icarus 154, 162-180] at ∼330°E, 87°N called here “Vostok”. Overall defrosting occurs early in the summer as the temperatures rise and then after the peak temperatures are reached (L_s∼110) higher elevations and outlier bright deposits cold trap and re-accumulate new frost. Persistent bright areas are associated with either higher elevations or higher background albedos suggesting complex feedback mechanisms including cold-trapping of frost due to albedo and elevation effects, as well as influence of mesoscale atmospheric dynamics.  相似文献   

改进Frost算子在SAR图像斑点噪声抑制中的应用     

杨婧玮  李贺  王智超 《测绘学院学报》2009,(4)

针对合成孔径雷达(SAR)图像斑点噪声滤波的重要性以及存在的问题,对Frost滤波算法参数进行分析,指出了该算法等权滤波器在处理含有细节结构特征时存在盲目平滑的缺点,进而提出了改进方法。利用灰度差值计算权值,综合考虑滤波窗口内的强度信息,在一定程度上解决了盲目平滑的问题。实验验证了改进算法的有效性,并以斑点噪声指数和边缘保持指数为评价准则,通过与Frost算法比较,对改进算法在去除噪声和边缘保持方面的性能做了客观评价。  相似文献   

且末绿洲1961-2010年霜冻的变化特征及其对主要农作物的影响     

黄玖君  师国强  邓小霞 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2013,7(2):47-50

利用且末绿洲近50 a初、终霜日等气候资料,分析该地区的霜冻变化特征,初步探讨其对主要农作物的影响.结果表明:且末绿洲近50 a来终霜危害大于初霜,初霜冻推迟、终霜冻提前趋势明显,无霜期呈微弱延长趋势但不显著;初、终霜均具有5a、33 a的振荡周期,未来一段时期均处在偏晚期;进入21世纪以后未出现特早初霜和特晚终霜.总体上看,气候变暖使该地区霜冻灾害减少,对主要农作物的生长有利.  相似文献   

东北大兴安岭多年冻土区工程地质特征及评价   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

杨永鹏  程东幸  伏慧霞 《工程地质学报》2008,16(5):657-662

土体在冻结状态具有极高的压缩模量, 具有弹性体的工程地质特征。但是在冻土地温升高过程中, 这种特征急剧衰减, 产生蠕变和流变, 建筑物地基强度降低, 导致建筑物基础破坏。同时土体在冻结过程中产生的冻胀作用也将导致建筑物基础的破坏。东北大兴安岭地区多年冻土为高纬度低海拔多年冻土, 其分布具有明显纬度地带性特点。本文在分析该区多年冻土分布特征及冻土工程地质特点的基础上, 对由于土体的冻胀和融沉导致的建筑物基础的危害进行分类研究, 针对性的提出了用热棒降低土体温度以保证多年冻土稳定及用排水的方法减少水对建筑物地基多年冻土影响的工程病害处理措施。  相似文献   

The potential lateral growth of lithalsas     

Albert Pissart  Fabrice Calmels 《Quaternary Research》2011,75(2):371-377

The lithalsas in the Hudson Bay region of northern Québec, Canada, are the closest modern analogs of ancient features that collapsed to form conspicuous circular depressions (“viviers”) common in the Hautes-Fagnes, a region in Belgium. Observations made in both regions are complementary and suggest that these mounds formed by frost heaving displacing soil not only upward, as previously assumed, but also laterally. This lateral displacement is consistent with diverse observations and inferences, which include (1) the simple rounded outline, either circular or oval, typical of both active and relic lithalsas; (2) evidence of local lateral extension inferred from exposures of the relic forms; (3) the relative inefficiency of solifluction in accumulating surface material to form the peripheral ramparts of remnant lithalsas due to the very gentle slopes of the mounds; and (4) the dip of ice lenses within a lithalsa in the Hudson Bay region, perhaps indicating that the freezing front dipped outward along its periphery. The growth of segregation ice is the primary driver for the vertical growth and lateral enlargement of a lithalsa.  相似文献   

Hydrostatic-system palsas at Toolik lake,Alaska: Field observations and simulation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. I. Outcalt  F. E. Nelson  K. M. Hinkel  G. D. Martin 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1986,11(1):79-94

Stratigraphic and chemical data from the ice core of an ‘anthropogenic palsa’ at Toolik Lake, Alaska, indicate that the mound formed as a consequence of hydrostatic pressure developed in an isolated hydrologic system within the active layer. Survey data for five palsas over a three-year period suggest that growth was essentially complete at the time of the initial survey; a net decrease of summit elevation is apparent in all five mounds, but complete degradation of the palsas would require several decades at observed rates. Because accurate field measurements of thermal and hydrologic evolution in such features are extremely difficult, simulation of the environmental conditions and events involved in palsa growth is an important supplement to field observation. Both analytic and finite-element models yield results that are in substantial agreement with inferences drawn from observational data.  相似文献   

Diurnal freeze–thaw depth in rockwalls: Field measurements and theoretical considerations     

Norikazu Matsuoka 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1994,19(5):423-435

Rock temperatures were monitored for a year at two alpine rockwalls in the Akaishi Range, Japan, where permafrost is absent. Diurnal frost and thaw penetration depths were evaluated from subsurface isotherms drawn on the basis of the temperature records at 0, 10 and 40 cm depths. The surface of the rockwalls experienced more than 100 diurnal freeze-thaw cycles, most of which accompanied a frost or thaw penetration shallower than 50 cm, and several long duration cycles with deeper frost or thaw penetration. Theoretical frost and thaw depths were also calculated by incorporating the surface freezing indices into the modified Berggren equation, the results from which were then compared with the actual values. The modified Berggren equation provided values that showed a strong correlation with observed depths, despite somewhat underestimating the actual values. Using the modified Berggren equation, the seasonal frost depth in the observed winter was estimated to be about 4·5 m. The frost and thaw depths are considered to give the maximum estimation of the depth to which frost-induced cracking can propagate in the bedrock.  相似文献   

运城市终霜冻预报方法          下载免费PDF全文

王咏梅 《山西气象》2003,(1):15-15,36

对运城市终霜冻资料时间序列进行了周期分析，再利用基于预测误差平方和(PRESS)准则的逐步回归周期分析方法建立运城市终霜冻预报模型，预测终霜冻出现的日期，经检验和试报表明，该模型预测效果较好，具有实用价值。  相似文献