三组火山强迫资料差异及其对模式模拟结果的影响     

高雅  高超超 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(3):305-316

Gao2008、Crowley2013和Sigl2015火山强迫资料,均基于极地冰芯重建。由于每组重建使用的冰芯数据和分析方法等不同,因此结果存在差异,从而影响气候模式应用。文中详细梳理三组火山强迫资料在原始冰芯数据、信号识别提取和沉积通量计算等方面的差异;介绍重建中涉及的对未知火山事件发生季节、纬度及从极地硫酸盐沉积通量向平流层辐射强迫通量转换等所做的假设;归纳资料中存在的共性问题。在此基础上,总结重建不确定性对模式应用的影响,希望为涉及气候模式的研究工作提供从气候系统外强迫资料解读或审视气候变化模拟与影响评估的视角,更好为气候模拟和预测服务。  相似文献   

中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究：进展与展望     

杨建平  丁永建  方一平 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(2):178-186

冰冻圈变化的适应研究是冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向,是当今自然科学与社会科学交叉融合跨学科集成研究的典型代表。起步于2007年的中国冰冻圈变化适应研究,经历了早期的探索,研究重点由评价脆弱性发展为量化冰冻圈变化的影响,形成以影响/风险—脆弱性—适应全链条的完善的研究体系,研究方法突破传统的指标体系赋权法的不足,初步实现了定量化,有机结合影响/风险、脆弱性、适应三方面的研究结果,使冰冻圈变化的适应措施由偏重宏观性、普适性开始转向更有针对性。未来中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究应拓展、完善和深化现有的理论体系,构建冰冻圈与社会经济耦合模型,科学量化冰冻圈全要素变化的影响,建立不同利益相关者与科学家共同参与的研究新模式,科学有效应对与适应冰冻圈变化及其影响。  相似文献   

How is organic farming performing agronomically and economically in sub-Saharan Africa?     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

The potential of organic agriculture and agroecological approaches for improving food security in Africa is a controversial topic in global discussions. While there is a number of meta-analyses on the environmental, agronomic and financial performance of organic farming, most of the underlying data stems from on-station field trials from temperate regions. Data from sub-Sahara Africa in particular, as well as detailed real-farm data is scarce. How organic farming is implemented in sub-Saharan Africa and how it performs in a smallholder context remains poorly understood. We applied a novel observational two-factorial research design, which allowed to evaluate the impacts of i) interventions for introducing organic agriculture and ii) specific organic management practices on 1,645 farms from five case studies in Ghana and Kenya, which we closely monitored for 24 months. Among the farmers who have been exposed to the interventions, we found heterogeneous adoption of organic agriculture principles, depending on the intervention. Furthermore, we found rather passive than active organic management among farmers. Most yields and gross margins under organic management remained at similar levels as the conventional values in four of the case studies. In one case study, however, coffee, maize and macadamia nut yields increased by 127–308% and farm-level gross margins over all analysed crops by 292%. Pooling our data across all case studies, we found significantly higher (+144%) farm-level gross margins on organically managed farms than on conventional farms. This indicates the potential of organic and agroecological approaches if implemented well. Based on our observations, we argue for improving the implementation of organic agriculture projects in settings with smallholder farmers. Limited capacities, lack of appropriate inputs and market access are major agronomic and institutional challenges to be addressed. Furthermore, we argue for supporting a differentiated debate about which types of organic farming are really desirable by classifying approaches to organic farming according to i) their intention to work organically and ii) the degree of following the organic principles. This will support the design and implementation of targeted policy interventions for stimulating sustainability of farming systems and rural development.  相似文献   

Dynamic response of debris flows impacting curved joint check dams     

《国际泥沙研究》2022,37(5):589-600

The dynamic impact force of debris flow on dams with a curved upstream face curved was investigated using laboratory experiments and a theoretical approach. Equations describing the impact force and maximum run-up height were derived. The experiments and theoretical considerations reveal that the impact force and maximum run-up height are mainly controlled by the Froude number (Fr) reduced by the cosine of the channel slope angle (cosα). Both the impact force and the maximum run-up height have a quadratic relation with the modified Froude number (Fr/(cosα)^0.5). The experimental data and the results of the theoretical approach are in good agreement, indicating that the theoretical approach can be used in practical applications. It is concluded that the comparison between the curved-joint dam and the more conventional sharp-joint dam shows no differences in the maximum impact force and run-up height for the same modified Froude number. With the sharp-joint dam, the peak values of the impact force are reached more quickly than with the curved-joint dam.  相似文献   

Marine management for human development: A review of two decades of scholarly evidence     

Gonçalo Carneiro 《Marine Policy》2011

This paper reviews the evidence of the impacts of marine management interventions on human development and well-being reported in marine management literature in the past two decades. Documents dealing with fisheries, aquaculture, marine conservation and coastal zone management are assessed in terms of the methodologies used, the human development dimensions considered, and the results reported. The choice of dimensions for defining human development in this literature is contrasted with proposals from the literature on the capability and human development approaches. Possible areas for future research are discussed.  相似文献   

Ethics of care across professional and everyday positionalities: The (un)expected impacts of participatory video with young female carers in Slovakia     

《Geoforum》2015

The paper offers a critical intervention into the debates on research impact, theorising the potential of underpinning research agendas by ethics of care. We explore how a range of vectors of care, both intimate and distant, emerged in collaborative activities between researchers based in the UK and community youth workers and teenage female carers in Slovakia, leading to a series of (un)expected outcomes. We argue that while all research impacts cannot be planned in advance, an ethics of care embedded in relationships within and beyond research settings may form conditions in which outcomes exceeding the initial expectations can be anticipated. To achieve this, we argue for questioning the distinctions between academic and non-academic collaborators, legitimising diverse forms of knowledge, action and impact in institutional policies, and for conceiving research projects from the beginning as “more-than-research” avenues.  相似文献   

Numerical predictions of water–air wave slam using incompressible–compressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics     

《Applied Ocean Research》2015

The high-speed impact between a body and water is an important practical problem, whether due to wave impact on a structural deck or wall, or due to a moving body such as a ship or aircraft hitting water. The very high pressures exerted are difficult to predict and the role of air may be significant. In this paper, numerical simulations are undertaken to investigate the impact of a rigid horizontal plate onto a wave crest and, in the limit, onto a flat water surface. A two-phase incompressible–compressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method for water and air, respectively, is applied where the water phase imposes kinematics on the air phase at the air–water interface and the air phase imposes pressures on the water at the interface. Results are compared with experimental measurements undertaken using a drop rig positioned over a wave flume so that a horizontal plate impacts the water surface in free flight. Numerical predictions of impact pressure are quite accurate; air is shown to have a significant cushioning effect for impact on to flat water and this reduces for waves as the ratio of wave height to wavelength increases.  相似文献   

River rafting in mountainous regions of Uttarakhand: Impacts, suggested mitigation measures and sustainability     

Parth Sarathi MAHAPATRA  Rajiv PANDEY  Sonali PRADHAN 《山地科学学报》2012,9(4):511-522

Uttarakhand state in India is well known for its mountainous ecosystems,traditional communities and a variety of ecotourism destinations.Among various tourism activities,River Rafting along the banks of the Ganges River has increased tremendously for two decades,and has had unprecedented impacts on the traditional communities and the bio-diversity.Therefore,it is meaningful to do a comprehensive study on the various impacts associated with river rafting so as to suggest the pathways to achieve the environmental sustainability in this region.In this study,we collected primary data from randomly selected population units across all stake holders such as local people(n = 100),and camp personnel(n = 22),through a pre-tested questionnaire survey between August 2009 and May 2010.The questionnaire contains issues on culture,social,economic,institutional and associated perceived impacts on pollution and biodiversity including views for sustainability.Secondary information was also collected from various sources and government records to supplement and strengthen the analysis.The impacts were analyzed qualitatively through a ranking mechanism to facilitate the decision making process.The perception of the interviewee about the various possible impacts of rafting was discussed with mitigating mechanism.The ranking analysis as percollected data reveals that economy and education of local community was improved significantly;however aquatic and terrestrial fauna,social cohesion and pollution(water,air,land) were significantly deteriorated.The results show that the existing practices are not sufficient to address the adverse impacts.Improvement in practices is necessary,mainly in the policy regime.Based on the analysis,some measures are recommended on how to protect community interest and environment with the development of river rafting as an ecotourism opportunity.  相似文献   

Methods of social assessment in Marine Protected Area planning: Is public participation enough?     

Michelle Voyer  William Gladstone 《Marine Policy》2012,36(2):432-439

Addressing social and economic considerations is crucial to the success of Marine Protected Area (MPA) planning and management. Ineffective social assessment can alienate local communities and undermine the success of existing and future MPAs. It is rare to critique the success of methods used currently to incorporate social and economic considerations into MPA planning. Three Australian MPA planning processes covering three states and incorporating federal and state jurisdictions are reviewed in order to determine how potential social impacts were assessed and considered. These case studies indicate that Social Impact Assessment (SIA) is under-developed in Australian MPA planning. Assessments rely heavily on public participation and economic modelling as surrogates for dedicated SIA and are followed commonly by attitudinal surveys to gauge public opinion on the MPA after its establishment. The emergence of issues around public perception of the value of MPAs indicates the failure of some of these proposals to adequately consider social factors in planning and management. This perception may have potential implications for the long term success of individual MPAs. It may also compromise Australia's ability to meet international commitments for MPA targets to gazette at least 10% of all its marine habitats as MPAs. Indeed, this is demonstrated in two of the three case studies where social and economic arguments against MPAs have been used to delay or block the future expansion of the MPA network.  相似文献   

Impacts of temperature on rice yields of different rice cultivation systems in southern China over the past 40 years     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2015

The impact of climate change on rice yield in China remains highly uncertain. We examined the impact of the change of maximum temperature (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) on rice yields in southern China from 1967 to 2007. The rice yields were simulated by using the DSSAT3.5 (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer)-Rice model. The change of T_max and T_min in rice growing seasons and simulated rice yields as well as their correlations were analyzed. The simulated yields of middle rice and early rice had a decreasing trend, but late rice yields showed a weak rise trend. There was significant negative correlation between T_max and the early rice yields, as well as the late rice yields in most stations, but non-significant negative correlation for the middle rice yields. An obviously negative relationship was found between T_min and the early and middle rice yields, and a significant positive relationship was found between T_min and the late rice yields. It indicated that under the recent climate warming, the increased T_max brought strong negative impacts on early rice yields and late rice yields, but a weak negative impact on the middle rice yields; the increased T_min had a strong negative impact on the middle rice yields and the early rice yields, but a significant positive impact on the late rice yields. It suggested that it is necessary to adjust rice planting date and adapt to higher T_min.  相似文献