基于ShakeMap_CNST的2017年精河6.6级地震灾害快速评估     

刘军  谭明  宋立军  郝婧  毕雪梅  王新刚  常想德 《中国地震》2019,35(2):381-388

基于考虑区域地震动衰减关系、场地效应及震中破裂等多因素的烈度快速评估模型，结合震害预测方法，研发了一套震害预测系统，并以2017年8月9日精河M_S6.6地震的震害预测为例，将对其的预测结果与当前主流系统进行对比。结果表明，采用ShakeMap_CNST系统能对地震的影响范围和烈度进行更为准确的估计，在人员伤亡、受灾人口估计、紧急安置人数及经济损失评估等方面，相对于其他系统，本系统的结果与现场调查的结果更为接近。  相似文献   

利用烈度数据点估算中强历史地震震级与震中的方法研究     

吴清  高孟潭 《震灾防御技术》2014,9(1):12-28

本文基于地震烈度数据点,用椭圆参数方程对烈度点空间分布进行最小二乘拟合,得到各烈度区椭圆烈度估计线,然后对烈度估计线进行统计回归,得到一组适用于青、甘、川、滇4省中强地震的椭圆烈度分布模型I=f（M,R）.基于所建烈度分布模型,联立考虑中心点和方向性的椭圆数学方程,代入全部烈度数据点估算地震震级和宏观震中.本文的试算震例表明了此方法的可行性,并进行了不确定性分析.利用该方法对明清时期4次烈度点较少的中强历史地震参数进行了估算,所得结果表明了此方法对历史地震有效.  相似文献   

ShakeMap在2014年于田7.3级地震快速损失评估中的应用     

刘军  宋立军  温和平  谭明  古丽孜帕 《震灾防御技术》2014,9(1):83-89

本文介绍了2014年2月12日新疆于田Ms7.3级地震的震害特征,将改进的ShakeMap烈度图成功地运用到了于田7.3级地震的快速损失评估中.结果表明,考虑了场地效应的ShakeMap烈度图明显优于当前“十五”应急指挥系统的衰减关系模型的烈度图,能更好地为地震灾害损失评估服务,其快速评估的结果更接近官方公布的数据.因此,应用ShakeMap技术在震害损失快速评估中,能显著地提高评估结果的准确性.  相似文献   

云南鲁甸6.5级地震灾害特点浅析   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1  

帅向华  姜立新  侯建盛  延旭东  宋立军  刘爱文 《震灾防御技术》2014,9(3):340-358

通过对2014年8月3日云南鲁甸6.5级地震震害开展实地调查,对灾区破坏情况进行总体介绍,并就各烈度区特征和建筑物震害、地震地质灾害、工程结构震害进行分析,初步得出本次地震的一些震害特点.一是灾区人口密度大,人员死亡较集中.人员死亡主要集中在Ⅷ和Ⅸ度区.二是地震振动强,灾区破坏严重.本次地震震源深度12km,极震区烈度高达Ⅸ度,震源破裂在11s内集中释放.三是抗震能力弱,房屋破坏严重.灾区属国家级贫困区,农村民居抗震能力弱,且多数民房坐落在河谷陡坡上,边坡效应加重房屋震害,重灾区砖木和土木房屋成片损毁、倒塌.四是灾区条件恶劣,救灾难度大.震区活动断裂密集发育、地质破碎疏松、地形崎岖不平,又恰值雨季,诱发极其严重次生地质灾害,导致人员伤亡,造成灾区大面积交通、通信、电力中断,救援物资与救援力量无法及时发挥作用.  相似文献   

Quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in ground motion models and prediction     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2014

The aim of this paper is to compute the ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE)-specific components of epistemic uncertainty, so that they may be better understood and the model standard deviation potentially reduced. The reduced estimate of the model standard deviation may also be more representative of the true aleatory uncertainty in the ground-motion predictions.The epistemic uncertainty due to input variable uncertainty and uncertainty in the estimation of the GMPE coefficients are examined. An enhanced methodology is presented that may be used to analyse their impacts on GMPEs and GMPE predictions. The impacts of accounting for the input variable uncertainty in GMPEs are demonstrated using example values from the literature and by applying the methodology to the GMPE for Arias Intensity. This uncertainty is found to have a significant effect on the estimated coefficients of the model and a small effect on the value of the model standard deviation.The impacts of uncertainty in the GMPE coefficients are demonstrated by quantifying the uncertainty in hazard maps. This paper provides a consistent approach to quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in hazard maps using Monte Carlo simulations and a logic tree framework. The ability to quantify this component of epistemic uncertainty offers significant enhancements over methods currently used in the creation of hazard maps as it is both theoretically consistent and can be used for any magnitude–distance scenario.  相似文献   

1956-2011年黑龙江省龙卷风气候特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

朱红蕊  张洪玲  孙爽  王春丽  姚俊英 《气象与环境学报》2015,(3):98-103

利用富士达—皮尔森强度分类法对1956—2011年黑龙江省229个龙卷风样本进行分类,分析龙卷风事件的时空分布特征,探讨典型龙卷风个例的环流背景及形成机制。结果表明：1956—2011年黑龙江省龙卷风灾害具有明显的时空分布特征,20世纪60—80年代龙卷风活动频繁,90年代龙卷风发生频次最少,2001—2011年龙卷风发生频次略增加。龙卷风主要集中发生在夏季,以7月发生最多,且多出现在午后至傍晚。对龙卷风空间分析发现黑龙江省绥化地区是龙卷风多发区,与该地区的地理位置、气候条件和大气环流特征有关。不稳定的形势场是龙卷风产生的基础,暖湿气流的输送和冷暖空气的强对流运动为龙卷风的产生提供了有利条件。  相似文献   

三峡库首区非构造型水库地震的烈度衰减     

孟庆筱  冯光钰  梅启双  吕健 《地震工程学报》2011,33(Z1)

非构造型水库地震具有震级小、震源浅、烈度高的特点,研究其烈度衰减对库区地震地质灾害的预测与防治具有重要的意义。根据三峡库首区近年地震实地科考原始烈度资料,选择椭圆衰减模型并对其进行二元回归分析,得到非构造型水库地震的烈度衰减关系。并与原有构造型水库地震烈度衰减关系进行比较。结果可供库区地震危险性分析与地震小区划使用。  相似文献   

考虑震源破裂过程的青海玉树地震震动图研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

陈鲲  俞言祥  高孟潭  吕红山 《中国地震》2011,27(1):56-64

为了在缺少实时台站数据的情况下,研究震后地表地震动分布,本文尝试通过对震源做出某些约束,以提高震动图的精度.由于青海玉树地震的发震断层近似直立(倾向83°),震源破裂过程在时间和空间上呈明显的分区特征,分别考虑了地表破裂的线源发生模型和主震震级分解方法,用考虑了场地效应的震动图快速生成方法生成震动图.将两种方法生成的震动图与调查烈度比较.结果表明,基于震源破裂过程对主震震级进行分解,综合考虑各子事件生成震动图的方法,对震后的应急决策和灾情的快速评估是可行的.  相似文献   

Wavelet-based detection of bush encroachment in a savanna using multi-temporal aerial photographs and satellite imagery     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

Although increased woody plant abundance has been reported in tropical savannas worldwide, techniques for detecting the direction and magnitude of change are mostly based on visual interpretation of historical aerial photography or textural analysis of multi-temporal satellite images. These techniques are prone to human error and do not permit integration of remotely sensed data from diverse sources. Here, we integrate aerial photographs with high spatial resolution satellite imagery and use a discrete wavelet transform to objectively detect the dynamics in bush encroachment at two protected Zimbabwean savanna sites. Based on the recently introduced intensity-dominant scale approach, we test the hypotheses that: (1) the encroachment of woody patches into the surrounding grassland matrix causes a shift in the dominant scale. This shift in the dominant scale can be detected using a discrete wavelet transform regardless of whether aerial photography and satellite data are used; and (2) as the woody patch size stabilises, woody cover tends to increase thereby triggering changes in intensity. The results show that at the first site where tree patches were already established (Lake Chivero Game Reserve), between 1972 and 1984 the dominant scale of woody patches initially increased from 8 m before stabilising at 16 m and 32 m between 1984 and 2012 while the intensity fluctuated during the same period. In contrast, at the second site, which was formely grass-dominated site (Kyle Game Reserve), we observed an unclear dominant scale (1972) which later becomes distinct in 1985, 1996 and 2012. Over the same period, the intensity increased. Our results imply that using our approach we can detect and quantify woody/bush patch dynamics in savanna landscapes.  相似文献   

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change     

《Advances in water resources》2015

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty.  相似文献