Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest,based on multiple hazard scenarios and analytical methods     

《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2015

Bucharest, capital of Romania, is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage, due to the intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region, to the vulnerable building stock and local soil conditions.This paper tries to answer very important questions related to the seismic risk at city scale that were not yet adequately answered. First, we analyze and highlight the bottlenecks of previous risk-related studies. Based on new researches in the hazard of Bucharest (recent microzonation map and ground-motion prediction equations, reprocessed real recorded data) and in vulnerability assessment (analytical methods, earthquake loss estimation software like SELENA and ELER, the recently implemented Near Real-Time System for Estimating the Seismic Damage in Romania) we provide an improved estimation of the number of buildings and population that could be affected, for different earthquake scenarios. A new method for enhancing the spatial resolution of the building stock data is used successfully.  相似文献   

新疆尼勒克、巩留交界MS6．0地震灾害损失评估与房屋震害特征     

谭明  唐丽华  吴国栋  常想德  张勇  宋立军  李洋  李亦纲  王伟  石广岭  李志海 《内陆地震》2012,26(3):209-220

新疆尼勒克、巩留交界MS6．0地震震中烈度为Ⅶ度，地震没有造成人员伤亡，但个别民宅倒塌，大量村镇居民房屋遭受中等以上破坏，一些教育、卫生等公房遭破坏；交通和水利设施有一定程度破坏，经及时抢修，未对灾区生产生活产生明显影响。通过实地抽样调查和统计计算，评估出本次地震造成的直接经济损失为67846万元，恢复重建的经费需120349万元。  相似文献   

基于深度学习的天气雷达回波序列外推及效果分析     

黄兴友  马玉蓉  胡苏蔓 《气象学报》2021,79(5):817-827

天气雷达探测资料是进行强对流天气临近预报的主要参考数据。针对传统雷达回波外推方法中存在资料信息利用率不足和外推时效有限的问题,文中利用神经网络进行雷达回波的外推、利用预测神经网络模型进行2 h以内的回波变化预报。回波外推问题的关键是回波时、空序列预测问题,该网络具有解决时间记忆问题的长、短时记忆单元（Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM）和提取空间特征的卷积模块。应用福建、江苏和河南多年的雷达探测资料构造训练和测试数据集。为消除降水的不平衡和提高对强回波的预报准确率,网络采用带权重的损失函数进行训练。对光流法和预测神经网络进行测试集检验以及个例分析,结果表明,在相同外推时效和检验反射率阈值的情况下,预测神经网络的临界成功指数、命中率均高于光流法,虚警率低于光流法。不同类型降水预测神经网络的SSIM值（structural similarity）均高于光流法,且层状云降水的SSIM值比对流云降水的大。因此,预测神经网络对强回波的预报能力高于光流法;在预报时效性上,预测神经网络模型具有一定的优越性;预测神经网络对层状云降水预报的准确率比对流云降水的高。   相似文献   

Progress and Prospect of Statistics and Assessment of Large-scale Natural Disaster Damage and Losses     

Xi Wang  Hongjian Zhou 《地球科学进展》2018,33(9):914-921

In June 2014, the "Statistics System for the Damage and Loss of Large-scale Natural Disasters" (SSDLLND) was issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Office of National Disaster Reduction Committee, which marked that the statistics and assessment of China's catastrophic natural disaster damage and losses formally entered a new stage of institutionalization. On the basis of analyzing the five major international disaster damage and loss assessment systems, including HAZUS-MH, ECLAC, DaLA, EMA-DLA and PDNA, the differences between the “SSDLLND” of China and five major international systems were compared from the statistics and assessment contents and indicators. Combined with the statistics and assessment practices of China’s large-scale disaster damage and losses and the characteristics of international systems in recent years, the future development of the SSDLLND were proposed in three aspects: Enriching and improving the framework of damage and loss statistics content, stepwise improvement of disaster impact assessment methods (such as the ecological capital loss assessment, tourism industry loss assessment due to the disasters, etc.), and improving indicators and parameters of loss statistics. The study has an important practical significance for improving the statistics and assessment system of the damage and loss of major natural disasters and better serving the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction decision-making.  相似文献   

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling     

Trevor I. Allen  David J. Wald  Paul S. Earle  Kristin D. Marano  Alicia J. Hotovec  Kuowan Lin  Michael G. Hearne 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2009,7(3):701-718

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973–2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained—to varying degrees—by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this “composite ShakeMap” with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page (). T. I. Allen and M. G. Hearne—contracted through Synergetics Incorporated.  相似文献   

Making sense of the politics in the climate change loss & damage debate     

《Global Environmental Change》2020

The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (L&D) associated with Climate Change Impacts (WIM) was established in 2013 to advance i) knowledge generation; ii) coordination and iii) support to address losses and damages under the UNFCCC. So far, the work undertaken by the WIM Executive Committee (ExCom) has focused on enhancing understanding and awareness of the issue and promoting collaboration with relevant stakeholders. Delivering on the WIM’s third function on action and support has lagged behind, and ‘the political’ nature of L&D has often been blamed for this. Key terrains of contention among Parties have included the positioning of L&D governance vis-à-vis the adaptation space and struggles around state liability and compensation. As a way to facilitate discussion on implementation options, recent research has suggested de-politicising aspects of the L&D debate; yet we have very little insight into how the politics are understood within the realm of international L&D governance. This paper brings an analysis of ‘the political’ into the picture by identifying the complex and underlying issues that fuel contention within UNFCCC L&D negotiations. It gives centre stage to the way different framings of norms and material interests affect the debate, and challenges the tendency in current L&D literature to overlook the socio-historical and political underpinnings of this area of policy-making. We employ a qualitative multi-methods research design which draws on content analysis of 138 official Parties’ submissions and statements, 14 elite interviews with key current and former L&D negotiators and is built on a foundation of 3 years of participant observation at COPs and WIM meetings. We approach this data with a political ethnographic sensibility that seeks to explore how meanings are constructed within and across different sources of data. Our empirical results show that, rather than being a monolithic dispute, L&D catalyses different yet intertwined unresolved discussions. We identify five areas of contention, including continued disputes around compensation; conflicts on the legitimacy of L&D as a third pillar of climate action; tensions between the technical and political dimension of the debate; debates over accountability for losses and damages incurred; and the connection of L&D with other unresolved issues under the Convention.  相似文献   

桂江流域土壤侵蚀估算及其时空特征分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

陈萍  Lian Yanqing  蒋忠诚  覃小群 《中国岩溶》2014,33(4):473-482

桂江流域的水土流失现状研究对珠江三角洲的水生态安全有重要的现实意义。采用修正的通用土壤流失方程（RUSLE）估算了桂江流域的土壤侵蚀模数与年侵蚀总量,分析流域内土壤侵蚀的时空分布特征,探讨了影响该区域土壤侵蚀强度的自然与人文因素。结果表明,桂江流域51.8%的地表都在发生不同程度的土壤侵蚀。从全流域平均土壤侵蚀强度来看,属于中度侵蚀。从土壤侵蚀面积来看,约85%的地表处于微度、轻度与中度侵蚀。4-6月的全流域平均土壤侵蚀强度最大,侵蚀总量也是最大的。流域的土壤侵蚀主要发生在高程在30~600m的低山丘陵-高地地貌区内的林地与耕地中。流域内岩溶区的土壤侵蚀强度随着石漠化程度从无到中度逐渐增加,轻、中度石漠化区的土壤侵蚀强度达到强度侵蚀等级。  相似文献   

超浅层顶管施工诱发地表沉降规律分析     

张海生 《岩土钻凿工程》2014,(2):61-66

随着社会化进程的推进,顶管法在各类城市地下管线的施工中得到广泛应用。超浅层顶管施工。绝大多数是在已建道路下进行的,施工时,易发生地表沉降,且沉降量很大,易破坏路面。为此,超浅层顶管施工对周围环境的影响已引起人们足够的重视,其施工及控制技术是目前迫切需要掌握的。利用有限差分软件FLAC3D对顶管施工过程中地表沉降进行模拟,旨在了解超浅层顶管施工引起的力学效应。对超浅层顶管施工引起的地表沉降作出预测,为采取措施减小地表沉降提供依据。  相似文献   

Micro-fracture instabilities in granular solids     

Gabriela Bilbie  Cristian Dascalu  Rene Chambon  Denis Caillerie 《Acta Geotechnica》2008,3(1):25-35

We study the aspect of unstable behavior (like strain localization bands) in elastic solids as a consequence of micro-fracturing. A two-scale approach of computational homogenization is considered. The macroscopic behavior is investigated by finite element computations on a unit cell. At the micro-level, we consider a granular structure with elastic grains. The inter-granular boundaries are modeled with cohesive laws, friction and unilateral contact. We show that decohesion between grains gives rise to macro-instabilities, indicated by the loss of ellipticity, typical for deformation localization bands. The relation between the microscopic softening on inter-granular boundaries and the onset of macro-instabilities is studied through numerical examples. The influence of the cohesive law and friction parameters is analyzed. For periodic distributions of granular structures, we prove the loss of periodicity by failure and the corresponding size dependence effect in the homogenized response. We present numerical examples of bifurcation of solutions for granular cell structures and of particular solutions specific to elementary volumes with periodic cell distribution. Size dependence appears in the unstable regime and is strongly influenced by cohesion and friction parameters.  相似文献   

基于3S技术和USLE的深圳市茜坑水库流域土壤侵蚀强度预测研究     

ZHAO Yan-xin  ZHANG Wan-shun  Wang Yan  Wang Ting-ting 《福建地理》2007,(3)

基于RS、GPS和GIS(3S技术)的集成提出了USLE 6大因子的算法,在建立的专题地理信息数据库基础上,运用USLE对深圳市茜坑水库流域的土壤侵蚀强度进行预测和估算.结果表明:整个流域90.5%的区域土壤流失强度为中度以下,强度侵蚀以上的区域虽然仅占整个流域面积的9.5%,但是年土壤侵蚀量达到了整个流域土壤侵蚀量的49.4%.流域土壤侵蚀强度和植被覆盖情况明显相关,茜坑水库流域的东北山区部分是整个流域的严重侵蚀区.研究证明:在3S技术集成支持下,采用USLE对流域的土壤流失强度进行预测和估算的方法具有直观、方便、快捷的优点,成果能充分满足小流域水土保持工作的需要.  相似文献