Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed     

Yanyan Cheng  Fred L. Ogden  Jianting Zhu 《水文研究》2020,34(3):569-582

Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment.  相似文献   

Using hysteretic behaviour and hydrograph classification to identify hydrological function across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum in a karst catchment     

Runrun Zhang  Xi Chen  Zhicai Zhang  Chris Soulsby 《水文研究》2020,34(16):3464-3480

In cockpit karst landscapes, fluxes from upland areas contribute large volumes of water to low-lying depressions and stream flow. Hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between monitoring sites is important for understanding the space–time variability of hydrologic responses across the “hillslope–depression–stream” continuum. In this study, the hysteretic feature of hydrographs was assessed by characterizing the loop-like relationships between responses at upstream sites relative to subsurface discharge at the outlet of a small karst catchment. A classification of hydrograph responses based on the multi-scale smoothing Kernel -derived distance classifies the hydrograph responses on the basis of similarities between hillslope and depression sites, and those at the catchment outlet. Results demonstrate that the temporal and spatial variability of hydrograph hysteresis and similarity between hillslope flow and outlet stream flow can be explained by the local heterogeneity of depression aquifer. Large depression storage deficits emerging in the highly heterogeneous aquifer produce strong hysteresis and multiple relationships of upstream hydrographs relative to the outlet subsurface discharge. In contrast, when depression storage deficits are filled during consecutive rainfall events, depression hydrographs at the high permeability sites are almost synchronous or exhibit a monotonous function with the hydrographs at the outlet. This reduced hydrograph hysteresis enhances preferential flow paths in fractured rocks and conduits that can accelerate the hillslope flow to the outlet. Therefore, classification of hydrograph similarities between any upstream sites and the catchment outlet can help to identify the dominant hydrological functions in the heterogeneous karst catchment.  相似文献   

基岩倾角对盆地地震响应的影响分析          下载免费PDF全文

卓发成 《地震工程学报》2020,42(4):1035-1042

为了研究盆地基岩倾角对盆地地表动力反应的影响,选取了一个跨度2 km,深度500 m的二维成层盆地为研究对象进行有限元动力反应分析。以持时0.25 s的狄拉克脉冲作为输入地震动,探讨了P波和SV波垂直入射时,盆地基岩倾角从10°\,20°\,30°\,40°依次增加的情况下盆地地震反应。结果表明:入射波在倾斜基岩处发生波型转化,同时产生面波,在盆地中心区域发生汇聚;随着基岩倾角的增加地表中心处的卓越频率有减小的趋势。  相似文献   

农机投入对农业GTFP影响及门槛效应的区域差异分析     

刘敏  姜会明  姜天龙 《地理科学》2020,40(12):2037-2045

按照粮食的产销情况，将全国划分为3类粮食功能区域，利用固定效应模型和门槛效应模型分析了农机投入对农业绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）的影响及门槛效应的区域差异。结果表明：农机投入对农业GTFP的影响程度存在区域异质性，农机投入对粮食主销区农业GTFP提升的促进作用最大，粮食产销平衡区次之，粮食主产区最小；农机投入对农业GTFP的影响路径亦存在区域差异，粮食主产区和产销平衡区的农机投入通过促进农业技术效率和农业技术进步进而推动农业GTFP提升，粮食主销区的农机投入通过促进农业技术进步推动农业GTFP提升；农机投入对粮食主产区农业GTFP的影响存在双门槛效应，对粮食主销区和产销平衡区农业GTFP的影响存在单门槛效应。  相似文献   

社区关系、效益感知与亲旅游行为研究：一个有调节的中介作用模型          下载免费PDF全文

李东  崔春雨  马长发  关靖云  陈玥彤  王玉清 《干旱区地理》2020,43(4):1098-1107

目的地居民作为旅游活动的重要参与主体,对旅游业的行为态度不仅影响着游客的感知和体验,也对目的地旅游业的可持续发展起着重要作用。在旅游支持态度与亲环境行为等相关研究的基础上,提出亲旅游行为的概念,表达居民促进旅游业在当地更好发展的行为意向。以社会表征理论研究框架为基础,构建“社区关系—效益感知—行为态度”模型,实证考察了社区关系对亲旅游行为的影响,探讨了旅游效益感知的中介作用和旅游事件依恋的调节作用。结果表明：社区关系对目的地居民经济效益、社会效益、环境效益感知均具有显著的正向影响,积极的旅游影响感知又对亲旅游行为产生显著的正向影响作用。居民对经济、社会、环境效益的感知在社区关系与亲旅游行为之间存在多重链式中介作用,传统的中介模型低估了旅游效益感知的影响作用。旅游事件依恋正向调节了社区关系与旅游社会效益感知、环境效益感知的关系。研究结论为揭示旅游介入情境下社区关系、效益感知与亲旅游行为之间的影响机制提供了一定的理论依据,对于目的地社区旅游开发与管理具有一定的实践参考价值。  相似文献   

柴达木盆地碱山深钻的硼同位素地球化学特征          下载免费PDF全文

卢胜城  韩文霞  韩凤清  马云麒  吕爽 《盐湖研究》2020,28(1):60-68

沉积物硼(B)同位素组成可以反映其地质成因及经历的地质过程,因此在许多领域的研究中都有较为广泛的应用。通过对位于柴达木盆地碱山背斜顶部的SG-1b钻孔沉积物(7.3～1.6 Ma)水溶组分的B同位素研究,发现钻孔沉积物B含量在38.55～172.3μg/g之间,平均含量为87.6μg/g;δ~(11)B值的变化范围在3.61‰～16.26‰之间,平均值为10.65‰,B含量与δ~(11)B值具有一定的正相关关系。进一步分析表明,受到碱山背斜构造隆升以及晚新生代以来气候干旱化的影响,柴西古湖逐渐咸化萎缩,沉积环境以及碳酸盐含量、粘土矿物含量及其矿物组合等也在发生变化,B含量和δ~(11)B值自钻孔底部向上的逐步增加以及后期的急剧增加,与水溶离子含量以及矿物和粒度等的变化一致,这说明柴达木盆地晚中新世以来湖泊沉积物的B含量和δ~(11)B值可以很好地反映研究区气候和湖水的演化过程,共同指示了研究区自7.3 Ma以来气候的持续干旱化和湖水盐度的逐步增加,以及3.3Ma以来干旱化和湖水浓缩过程的加剧。  相似文献   

Late Quaternary sea‐level change and evolution of Belfast Lough,Northern Ireland: new offshore evidence and implications for sea‐level reconstruction     

Ruth M. K. Plets  S. Louise Callard  J. Andrew G. Cooper  Joseph T. Kelley  Daniel F. Belknap  Robin J. Edwards  Antony J. Long  Rory J. Quinn  Derek W. T. Jackson 《第四纪科学杂志》2019,34(4-5):285-298

The interplay of eustatic and isostatic factors causes complex relative sea‐level (RSL) histories, particularly in paraglacial settings. In this context the past record of RSL is important in understanding ice‐sheet history, earth rheology and resulting glacio‐isostatic adjustment. Field data to develop sea‐level reconstructions are often limited to shallow depths and uncertainty exists as to the veracity of modelled sea‐level curves. We use seismic stratigraphy, 39 vibrocores and 26 radiocarbon dates to investigate the deglacial history of Belfast Lough, Northern Ireland, and reconstruct past RSL. A typical sequence of till, glacimarine and Holocene sediments is preserved. Two sea‐level lowstands (both max. ?40 m) are recorded at c. 13.5 and 11.5k cal a bp . Each is followed by a rapid transgression and subsequent periods of RSL stability. The first transgression coincides temporally with a late stage of Meltwater Pulse 1a and the RSL stability occurred between c. 13.0 and c. 12.2k cal a bp (Younger Dryas). The second still/slowstand occurred between c. 10.3 and c. 11.5k cal a bp . Our data provide constraints on the direction and timing of RSL change during deglaciation. Application of the Depth of Closure concept adds an error term to sea‐level reconstructions based on seismic stratigraphic reconstructions.  相似文献   

基于EEMD和ARIMA的海温预测模型研究          下载免费PDF全文

张莹  谭艳春  彭发定  廖杏杰  余昱昕 《海洋学研究》2019,37(1):9-14

类型丰富、时空分辨率高的海洋探测数据,为信号分解和机器学习算法的应用提供了可能。本文针对如何建立有效的海温预测模型这一问题,使用高时空分辨率的海表温度(SST)融合产品,引入信号处理领域的集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和机器学习领域的自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)。首先利用最适于分解自然信号的EEMD方法,将海温数据分解成多个确定频率的序列;再利用ARIMA分别对各个频率的序列进行预测,最后将各个序列的预测结果进行组合。该方法在丰富数据的支撑下,比以往直接使用海温数据所建立的预测模型精度更高,为更好地进行海温预测提供了新方法。  相似文献   

云南广南县老寨湾金矿地质特征及找矿标志     

高李阳  顾雄  吴小梅 《云南地质》2020,(1):71-75

广南县老寨湾金矿位于滇、黔、桂“金三角”重要成矿区带上,金矿体矿体呈似层状赋存于断层构造破碎带或层间构造破碎带中,构造控矿明显。矿体围岩均为下泥盆统坡松冲组第一段(D1ps1)硅化石英砂岩;矿床成因属中-低温热液叠加改造型金矿床,断层构造、硅化等矿化蚀变及地球化学异常是重要的找矿标志。  相似文献   

金伯利岩型金刚石矿床研究及其成矿模式探讨——以辽宁瓦房店地区金刚石原生矿矿床为例     

刘礼广  吴大天  韩双  万方来  林少全  杨献忠 《地质学报》2020,94(9):2650-2665

辽宁南部瓦房店金刚石矿是国内最大的金刚石矿产区，现已发现4处金刚石成矿带、120个岩体。其中金伯利岩岩管24个、岩脉89个、可疑岩体7个，累计提交1221万克拉储量，占全国金刚石储量52%。本文主要对该矿床的金刚石母岩—金伯利岩的岩石地球化学特征进行了全面系统分析，发现金伯利岩中MgO、NiO、Cr 2O 3的含量与TiO 2、Al 2O 3、Na 2O、K 2O、CaO、P 2O 5等偏碱性组分呈正相关关系；Ni、Cr、Co含量与金刚石含量呈正相关，而Ti、Zr、Ba元素含量与金刚石含量呈负相关。通过对瓦房店矿区金刚石中石榴石及单斜辉石包裹体、橄榄石- 石榴石矿物对、石榴石微量元素、尖晶石- 橄榄石等多种地质温、压计归纳得出金刚石矿的来源深度为150~210 km,压力5~7 GPa，温度1083~1261℃，在上述温、压条件下，结合岩浆化学组成，估算金伯利岩具有低氧逸度(fO 2=2. 913×1. 01325×10-6Pa)的特点。结合野外勘查工作，总结了该矿床的地质特征、控矿构造、矿体空间分布规律等要素，认为NEE向和NE向断裂控制着金伯利岩体的展布方向和矿体形态。脉状金伯利岩体一般呈NEE 70°~80°方向展布，严格受NEE至近EW向的密集节理或裂隙控制。提出了金刚石母岩—金伯利岩是由源于上地幔岩浆，在一定的封闭条件下，受构造与岩性双重控制，多期性的爆发与侵入交替作用所形成，并建立了具有较高氧逸度和较高密度的流变性软流圈，通过渗滤熔体浸蚀岩石圈形成金刚石的理想成因模式，希望为下一步找矿工作提供参考。  相似文献