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排序方式: 共有206条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
利用Pettitt非参数检验法和Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验法,分析年最大洪峰流量序列的非一致性,确定序列的变异形式,采用“分解-合成”理论对其进行一致性修正,得到过去、现状两种条件下年最大洪峰流量序列,根据贝叶斯理论对序列一致性修正前后参数不确定性进行估计,并对其预报区间优良性进行评价。研究结果表明:年最大洪峰流量序列变异点发生在1993年,序列整体上升趋势不显著,在1957-1993年子序列呈显著下降趋势,而1994-2006年子序列变化趋势不显著,跳跃变异为序列主要变异形式;给出了实测、还原及还现序列参数后验分布估计值及95%置信区间,将其结合优化适线法进行P-Ⅲ型频率分析,得到修正前后设计频率年最大洪峰流量预报区间估计值;还原、还现序列与实测序列相比,预报区间覆盖率均提高24%,平均带宽分别减少39.59%、23.17%,平均偏移幅度分别减少28.45%、11.39%。通过对非一致性年最大洪峰流量序列还原/还现计算,可减小参数估计不确定性对其计算产生的影响,从而提高预报区间的可靠性。  相似文献   
2.
KIM M. COHEN 《Sedimentology》2011,58(6):1453-1485
This study presents a detailed reconstruction of the palaeogeography of the Rhine valley (western Netherlands) during the Holocene transgression with systems tracts placed in a precise sea‐level context. This approach permits comparison of actual versus conceptual boundaries of the lowstand, transgressive and highstand systems tracts. The inland position of the highstand Rhine river mouth on a wide, low‐gradient continental shelf meant that base‐level changes were the dominant control on sedimentation for a relatively short period of the last glacial cycle. Systems in such inland positions predominantly record changes in the balance between river discharge and sediment load, and preserve excellent records of climatic changes or other catchment‐induced forcing. It is shown here that the transgressive systems tract‐part of the coastal prism formed in three stages: (i) the millennium before 8·45 ka bp , when the area was dominated by fluvial environments with extensive wetlands; (ii) the millennium after 8·45 ka, characterized by strong erosion, increasing tidal amplitudes and bay‐head delta development; and (iii) the period between 7·5 and 6·3 ka bp when the Rhine avulsed multiple times and the maximum flooding surface formed. The diachroneity of the transgressive surface is strongly suppressed because of a pulse of accelerated sea‐level rise at 8·45 ka bp . That event not only had a strong effect on preservation, but has circum‐oceanic stratigraphical relevance as it divides the early and middle Holocene parts of coastal successions worldwide. The palaeogeographical reconstruction offers a unique full spatial–temporal view on the coastal and fluvial dynamics of a major river mouth under brief rapid forced transgression. This reconstruction is of relevance for Holocene and ancient transgressive systems worldwide, and for next‐century natural coasts that are predicted to experience a 1 m sea‐level rise.  相似文献   
3.
全球变化背景下新疆地区气候跃变的可能影响因素分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
李稚  李卫红  陈亚宁 《冰川冻土》2011,33(6):1302-1309
基于新疆过去50a气温和降水时间序列长期趋势的研究结果,结合对1986年及附近时段对全球气候产生重大影响的一系列事件(厄尔尼诺、火山爆发、核电站爆炸事故、温室气体增加等)的分析,探讨了1986年新疆气温和降水出现跳跃式变化的原因.具体表现为:当厄尔尼诺现象发生时,常常出现暖冬、早春,在该现象消退过程,往往降水有所增多;...  相似文献   
4.
This paper addresses the integral conservation of linear and angular momentum in the steady hydraulic jump in a linearly diverging channel.The flow is considered to be divided into a mainstream that conveys the total liquid discharge, and a roller where no average mass transport occurs. It is assumed that no macroscopic rheological relationship holds, so mass, momentum and angular momentum integral balances are independent relationships. Normal stresses are assumed to be hydrostatic on vertical, cylindrical surfaces. Viscous stresses are assumed to be negligible with respect to turbulent stresses. Assuming that the horizontal velocity distribution in the mainstream is uniform and that the horizontal momentum and angular momentum in the roller are negligible with respect to their mainstream counterparts, an analytical solution is obtained for the free surface profile of the flow. This solution is fundamental for finding the sequent depths and their positions. Consequently, it permits solving for the length of the jump, which is assumed to be equal to the length of the roller. Mainstream and roller thicknesses can also be derived from the present solution. This model may also be theoretically used to derive the average shear stresses exerted by the roller on the mainstream and the power losses per unit weight. This second relationship, which returns the well-known classical expression for total power loss in the jump, demonstrates that the strongly idealized mechanical model proposed here is internally consistent.  相似文献   
5.
羌塘地块中生代时期的漂移演化及其成钾条件   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
任海东  颜茂都  陈毅  张大文  栗兵帅 《地质学报》2015,89(11):2005-2018
通过研究地块的古纬度,可以为我们认识该地块在地质历史时期的古地理位置和南北向漂移演化提供定量约束。本文通过收集、整理、评判中生代时期羌塘地块已发表的古地磁数据,建立了该地块在中生代时期的漂移演化历史。羌塘地块在中—晚三叠世期间,可能发生大规模快速北向漂移,并与羌塘北部的构造单元体发生碰撞;中侏罗世时期位于北半球21.4°N,晚侏罗世期间已北向到达31.8°N。中晚侏罗纪期间,羌塘地块古纬度值逐步升高,发生约1154±223km(△λ=10.4°±2.1°)的北向漂移。白垩世期间羌塘地块相对稳定,在古纬度30°N左右。综合上述羌塘地块的漂移演化历史,结合其它地质证据,如古气候、构造和从古地理位置等,中晚侏罗世夏里组时期羌塘地块具备较好的成钾条件。  相似文献   
6.
During the Late Paleozoic, the Gondwana supercontinent was affected by multiple glacial and deglacial episodes known as “The Late Paleozoic Ice Age” (LPIA). In Brazil, the evidence of this episode is recorded mainly by widespread glacial deposits preserved in the Paraná Basin that contain the most extensive record of glaciation (Itararé Group) in Gondwana. The Pennsylvanian to early Permian glaciogenic deposits of the Itararé Group (Paraná Basin) are widely known and cover an extensive area in southern Brazil. In the Doutor Pedrinho area (Santa Catarina state, southern Brazil), three glacial cycles of glacier advance and retreat were described. The focus of this article is to detail the base of the second glacial episodes or Sequence II. The entire sequence records a deglacial system tract that is represented by a proximal glacial grounding-line system covered by marine mudstones and shales associated with a rapid flooding of the proglacial area. This study deals with the ice proximal grounding-line systems herein interpreted according to lab model named plane-wall jet with jump. Detailed facies analysis allowed the identification of several facies ranging from boulder-rich conglomerates to fine-grained sandstones. No fine-grained deposits such as siltstone or shale were recorded. According to this model, the deposits are a product of a supercritical plane-wall outflow jet that changes to a subcritical jet downflow from a hydraulic jump. The hydraulic jump forms an important energy boundary that is indicated by an abrupt change in grain size and cut-and-fill structures that occur at the middle-fan. The sedimentary facies and facies associations show a downflow trend that can be subdivided into three distinct stages of flow development: (1) a zone of flow establishment (ZFE), (2) a zone of transition (ZFT), and (3) an established zone (ZEF). The proximal discharge is characterized by hyperconcentrated-to-concentrated flow due to the high energy and sediment-laden nature of the flows. At the transitional zone, a hydraulic jump produces a rapid shift of conglomeratic to sandy facies with associated scour features. Towards the distal zones, the jet detaches to originate a vertical turbulent jet characterized by more diluted flows. Discussion of fan facies and architecture within a framework of jet-efflux dynamics provides an improved understanding of grounding-line fans systems that produce coarse-grained strata commonly enclosed by fine-grained rocks. The results have clear implication in terms of prediction of facies tract and geometry of oil and gas reservoirs deposited under similar conditions. And also can be useful to identifying the position of a glacial terminus through time.  相似文献   
7.
本文主要研究了面向估计性能的双通道带宽分配策略问题.为了减小网络化控制系统中时滞现象对信号传输的影响,将系统建模为Markov跳变时滞系统.采用双通道传输策略,提升数据到达率,减少数据包的丢失.考虑到信道容量的有限性不利于大量数据的高效传输,将有限的带宽灵活地分配于两个通道,使得信道容量得到充分利用.在此基础上,本文提出了面向估计性能的双通道带宽分配策略,设计了双通道量化传输方案以及状态估计器,推导出了时变估计误差系统满足H性能的充分条件,并得出估计器增益矩阵设计方法,最后给出实例验证了所设计系统的有效性.  相似文献   
8.
GNSS精密单点定位中的实时质量控制   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
提出了一套适用于GNSS精密单点定位(PPP)的实时质量控制方法,重点研究了钟跳探测与修复、周跳探测与标记、抗差估计方法,并在现有质量控制方法的基础上进行了改进。对比分析了不同质量控制方案对PPP的影响,结果表明,钟跳不利于周跳探测,严重影响非差PPP的精度和效率,必须对其进行探测与修复;联合MW、GF组合可以探测出绝大多数周跳,且较使用单一方法更为准确、可靠;采用改进的抗差估计有效抑制了残余粗差对精密定位的影响,显著提高了PPP的精度和可靠性。  相似文献   
9.
Based on the pentad mean ridgeline index of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the authors identified the two northward jumps of the WPSH from 1979 to 2008 and revealed their associations with the tropical SST anomalies. The authors show that the northward jumps, especially the second jump, exhibited remarkable interannual variability. In addition, the authors find that the two northward jumps were mutually independent and were influenced by the SST anomalies in the different regions of the tropical Pacific. The first jump was positively correlated with the SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific from the preceding winter to June. In contrast, the second jump was positively related to ENSO in the preceding winter, but this correlation tended to weaken with the decay of ENSO and disappeared in July. Instead, a positive correlation was found in the Indian Ocean. We therefore suggest that ENSO plays an indirect role in the second jump through the capacitor effect of the Indian Ocean.  相似文献   
10.
气候突变的聚类分析   总被引:9,自引:2,他引:7       下载免费PDF全文
气候数据是时间序列,是一类有序样品.本文给出了一种新的有序样品谱系聚类算法,先对数据进行平滑拟合,然后用聚类分析的方法分析了北半球的气候资料,证实了1920年为气候突变点.同时也找到了较低的各个层次上的突变点.  相似文献   
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