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1.
利用WRF(Weather Research Forecast)模式及其3D-Var(Three-Dimensional Variational assimilation)变分系统,针对2017年7月7日一次飑线进行了雷达资料的循环同化敏感性试验。结果表明:以循环同化雷达资料至飑线成熟期时刻的试验预报效果最好,主要原因在于预报的低层西北冷空气较强,从而导致较强的低层切变,再配合强的热力不稳定条件从而使飑线的发展得以维持。通过七组试验对比表明,对于单次雷达资料,同化的时机更为重要。同化飑线成熟阶段的雷达反射率,对低层热力层结有改善作用,为飑线发展提供了不稳定能量;对于循环同化,通过观测的影响和模式自身的热动力调整,对流场也有较好的修正作用,为对流系统的持续发展提供了充分的动力条件。  相似文献   
2.
以业务应用为目标,开展高时、空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究。运用北京快速更新多尺度分析和预报系统集成子系统(RMAPS-IN,Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Integration),对雷达四维变分分析系统(VDRAS)30 min临近预报的高时、空分辨率三维风场作为数据源与自动气象站风场观测进行快速融合处理。结果表明,以VDRAS临近预报风场取代数值模式预报场作为融合初猜场后形成的分析结果对于风场有明显的改善:(1)长时间序列客观检验结果表明,地面10 m高风场U/V分量绝对误差分别为0.05和0.06 m/s。实时融合对未来预报的影响随着预报时效的延长,U/V分量的绝对误差不断增大。(2)对于11个强对流个例,地面10 m高风场风速均方根误差降低0.3 m/s,风向均方根误差降低13°;边界层三维风场,风速均方根误差降低0.8 m/s,风向均方根误差降低10°。平原站点融合以后风速、风向预报效果有较大改善,山区站点融合以后改善相对较小。(3)通过对2017年7月20日暴雨和7月7日雷暴大风个例的详细分析,发现融合基于雷达资料四维变分同化获得的高分辨率临近预报风场对各对流系统中的中尺度结构特征给出了更加细致准确的描述。   相似文献   
3.
为全面和系统研究北京及周边地区阵风锋各方面特征,使用2006—2015年暖季(5—9月)北京多普勒雷达探测资料及北京、河北、天津自动气象站观测资料对北京及周边地区的阵风锋过程进行综合统计分析。结果表明,346次阵风锋过程有232次触发了对流,占总数的67%,表明阵风锋对雷暴具有较强的抬升触发能力。阵风锋在6—8月出现的日数占5—9月阵风锋总日数的85%;出现的时段主要是午后至傍晚(12—21时,北京时),维持时间0.5—3 h;阵风锋在北京东南方向生成的数量最多,且触发对流的次数也最多;其次为偏东和东北方向;偏南和西南方向生成阵风锋数量居中,而偏北、偏西和西北地区阵风锋个例相对较少,触发对流的比例也相对较低。产生阵风锋的母风暴中48%为孤立雷暴(包括孤立多单体和超级单体风暴),31%为雷暴群,21%为飑线;97%的母风暴最强回波在50 dBz以上,阵风锋的回波强度为10—25 dBz。91%的阵风锋移动速度集中在10—60 km/h,84%的阵风锋与母风暴的最大距离为1—60 km;在母风暴回波强度减弱到30 dBz以下时,80%的阵风锋能够继续维持的时间不超过2 h。阵风锋母风暴向东南方向移动的个例最多,从阵风锋和母风暴移动方向的关系来看,阵风锋与母风暴移向一致的情况占比最高,为32%,其次为母风暴无移动及阵风锋弧形扩散情况,各占17%;阵风锋与母风暴移向相反情况所占比例最低,只有3%。最后统计了阵风锋经过地面自动气象站时,自动观测量的变化情况。结果显示,阵风锋在经过地面自动气象站时会造成风速增大、温度降低、相对湿度增大、气压升高。   相似文献   
4.
SWAN2.0系统的设计与实现   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
强对流天气短时临近预报系统(Severe Weather Automatic Nowcasting,SWAN)是面向短时临近监测、分析、预报、预警制作等功能为一体的业务平台。SWAN2.0基于MICAPS4(Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System Version 4.0,人机交互气象信息处理和天气预报制作系统)二次开发框架,采用C/S架构,服务器部署在省级,负责收集数据,运算SWAN产品;客户端部署在气象台站,实现具体的预报业务,并形成算法二次开发接口。SWAN2.0新增了三维变分风场反演、基于分雨团技术的雷达降水估测、冰雹识别等方法,实现了算法管理、产品生成、分析处理、资料检索显示、实时监控报警、预警产品制作等功能。SWAN2.0业务系统已在全国试用,在强对流天气监测、分析和短时临近预报预警中发挥了重要作用。  相似文献   
5.
Convection often produces severe weather which causes a great loss to human lives and properties. Precisely predicting the convection initiation process is crucial but challenging in operational convection nowcasting (0~2 h forecasting). Before the radar-defined CI occurring (e.g., the first occurrence of ≥35 dBZ echoes), observations at high spatial and temporal resolutions from weather radars and geostationary meteorological satellites can reveal precursor information such as the boundary-layer convergence lines and the rapid growth of newborn cumulus clouds. These radar- and satellite-observed precursor information are helpful for evaluating the pre-CI conditions and thus nowcasting the accurate CI timing and location. This paper reviewed the current status of radar- and satellite-based CI research and nowcasting techniques. The milestone works and the following studies in the last four decades were summarized to demonstrate how radar and satellite observations can be related to CI occurrence. The objectives and approaches of the CI research advance as the improvement in the capability of radars and were explained satellites. The research progress aids in the development of various CI nowcasting techniques. This paper introduced three well-established techniques that have been put into operational application, namely, ANC system, SATCAST algorithm, and UWCI algorithm. Some scientific issues with respect to radar- and satellite-based CI research and nowcasting were also presented.  相似文献   
6.
人工智能在冰雹识别及临近预报中的初步应用   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
张文海  李磊 《气象学报》2019,77(2):282-291
基于广东10部S波段多普勒天气雷达的三维拼图资料,利用机器学习技术开发了一种冰雹识别和临近预报的人工智能算法。算法设计时以雷达回波反射率的垂直和水平扫描数据为基础训练集,将冰雹云的雷达反射率扫描数据作为正样本,将其他雷达反射率扫描数据作为负样本,通过贝叶斯分类法对正、负样本数据集进行机器学习,训练人工智能识别冰雹云内在规律的能力。训练时以广东省2008-2013和2015-2016年的数据作为训练集,使用了2014年广东省12次冰雹过程的数据做检验。对比检验的结果表明,人工智能法比传统的概念模型法击中率高9个百分点。研究结果表明了人工智能对冰雹这类非线性强天气过程具有较强的识别能力。   相似文献   
7.
对近几年来武汉雷达所观测的典型低涡、梅雨锋暴雨天气过程进行了多普勒雷达观测分析,总结了β尺度暴雨回波系统的基本特征和强降水与诸多因素的关系.分析指出,在短时预报业务中,暴雨回波的识别和预警关键是从整体上要抓住β中尺度暴雨回波系统发生发展的特征,而不是孤立地研究一个对流单体的演变.  相似文献   
8.
On the basis that hydrological users need to know the forecast uncertainty at the time that the forecast is issued, we computed distributions of radar rainfall forecast uncertainty as a function of forecast lead time, basin size, and forecasted rainfall intensity using data from the US 3-D National Mosaic of radar data. We document how exceptional forecasts such as those of heavy rainfall are generally biased. Since forecast uncertainty is also weather dependent, we tried to find good predictors to help either reduce the forecast uncertainty or better define it. These predictors were based either on characteristics of the current precipitation field or on the performance of the nowcast in the immediate past. The value of some predictors, especially those based on the properties of large-scale rainfall patterns, was significant though modest, the predictors being generally more skillful at characterizing forecast uncertainty than at improving forecast accuracy.  相似文献   
9.
This paper is devoted to the testing experiment of a postprocessing tool aimed at the objective analysis of propagating gust fronts in a given convective environment. The tool is being developed to be applicable in the operational mode by utilizing NWP model outputs. The experiment was carried out on two summer convective cases which occurred in the Czech Republic. The cases were numerically simulated by the limited area NWP model LM COSMO with the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km. They represent different types of convective systems, both accompanied by objectively identifiable gust fronts and causing heavy precipitation. The event from July 2000 was characterised by the development of isolated thunderstorms. The other event from July 1998 was a long-lasting and organised convective system — a squall line. The hypothesis was that the developed postprocessing tool is capable to evaluate the role which downdraft outflows played in the decay and initiation of convective cells by interaction with convective environment and thus in prolongation of convection lifetime.The procedures of the Objective Analysis of Gust Fronts (OAGF) were applied to the thermodynamic outputs of the LM COSMO. The aim was to determine the position of gust fronts within the domain and to assess their speed of movement and the potential to initiate convection according to the properties of ambient vertical shear and stability as well as humidity conditions ahead of the respective downdraft outflows. In addition, the Radar Simulation Model (RSM) was employed to monitor the simulated convective systems in arbitrary PPI and RHI scans and to verify qualitatively the LM COSMO precipitation forecasts.The case studies has confirmed the applicability of the LM COSMO–OAGF chain and RSM, which may represent the potential for improving the operational nowcasting of hazardous convection phenomena. In both simulations, the objective gust fronts moved on into the vertical shear-favourable environment for triggering new convection. In addition to the dynamical organisation, there were also favourable stability and humidity conditions in the area of forced upward motions in the simulation of the event from July 2000.  相似文献   
10.
Hailstorms are a common meteorological phenomenon in Spain which causes substantial economic damage especially in spring and summer. During 2000 and 2001, a radar-based application for convective monitoring was developed at STAP (Forecasting and Analysis Techniques Department); in order to improve this nowcasting tool, it is needed to include an advanced procedure to estimate the presence of hail as a complementary module in the operational application. A preliminary study, carried out during 2001, showed that the Waldvogel technique, VIL (vertical integrated liquid) density and the hail detection algorithm (HDA) are the methodologies which proved more accurate in our latitudes.Throughout the spring and summer of 2001, all available information about hail events (time, place and hail size) and about storms without hail was used for tuning an experimental module to detect severe and non-severe hailstorms, taking into account the selected algorithms. During 2002, further information about storms was gathered in order to assess the behaviour of the developed hail module. Afterwards, a new module calibration was carried out with the information of the complete storms data set of 2001 and 2002. With this new calibration, the hail module became an operational tool during the spring and summer of 2003. Currently, the verification of the operational module using the data from the storms in 2003 is being elaborated. The aim of this work is to put forward the calibration procedure carried out, the verification results of 2002, and the performance of the hail estimate module in selected cases during 2003 in Spain.  相似文献   
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