基于小波变换与神经网络的石羊河流域夏季地温预测模型研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

贾东于  李开明  聂晓英  袁春霞  李清峰  高福元 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):412-422

地温变化在气候反馈效应中起着重要作用， 理解地温及其与影响因素之间的时空关系对预测全球温度变化至关重要。利用1998 - 2017年石羊河流域的逐日常规气象观测资料， 采用小波分析结合BP（Back Propagation）神经网络构建了石羊河流域夏季地温预报模型， 结果表明： 日平均地温预测效果在不同站点均为最佳， 其中预测值和观测值的相关系数均大于0.87， 3 ℃以内的预测概率均大于84%。其中， 民勤地区地温预测效果最好， 预测值和观测值的相关系数达到0.91， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到86%。日最高地温的预测值与观测值的相关系数高于0.8， 但误差平方和、 标准差较大。永昌地区日最高地温的模拟效果最好， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到83%。日最低地温的预测与观测值的平均相关系数高于0.66， 3 ℃以内的预报概率高于83%， 但预测值略低。其中， 武威地区日最低地温的预测效果最好， 预测值与观测值的相关系数为0.72， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到94%。研究成果可为有效弥补干旱、 半干旱区地温观测资料缺失和探讨其与局地气候的关系提供一些参考。  相似文献   

非典型周期和气候突变的识别与判定          下载免费PDF全文

秦建国 《水文》2020,40(1):23-28

通过两种新方法分析了无锡站降水年际变化的突变性、周期性等特征,揭示了旱涝演化的自然规律。研究表明,1934、1978、2013年是我国近现代气候突变的临界点,这是旱涝演化的自然选择;无锡站年际降水的观测历史可分成四个特征不同的时段,每个时段节点对应的都是一次气候突变;气候突变会改变年际降水序列的一致性,分段法研究可以大幅度降低模拟难度、提高预测效率。发现并确认了3个气候突变点,实现了超长缺测中断期(13a)旱涝趋势的精确插补,完成了无锡站近百年降雨序列的周期性分析与旱涝趋势预测模拟,研究成果改变了近现代气候历史无法细分的现状。  相似文献   

山东大尹格庄金矿床深部三维定量成矿预测     

陈进  毛先成  邓浩 《地球学报》2020,41(2):179-191

大尹格庄金矿是胶西北招平断裂带中段的大型金矿床,但随着逐渐的开采其保有资源量不断下降,急需在矿床的深边部区域开展接续资源找矿工作。本文以大尹格庄金矿为研究对象,以区域成矿理论和找矿勘查模型为指导,利用三维地质建模技术构建了相关地质体的三维模型,在此基础上,采用定量化的方法提取地质体与成矿相关的控矿因素指标和矿化指标,并建立了三维定量成矿预测模型,并应用该模型圈定了3个找矿靶区。研究表明,该方法能够适用于大中型矿山的深边部找矿工作,其三维及定量化的预测结果能够为后续的勘探及开采工作提供重要参考。  相似文献   

Modeling of iceberg drift in the marginal ice zone of the Barents Sea     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The paper is focused on the analysis of the drift of tabular iceberg observed in 2009 in the marginal ice zone of the North-West Barents Sea. Momentum balance equations are derived from the Kirchhoff equations describing plane motion of solid body in an ideal fluid. Field works performed on the drift iceberg and on the drift icenear the iceberg are described. Results of the field works and numerical simulations of the iceberg drift and rotation are performed and discussed. It is shown that acceleration of water flow around the iceberg has visible influence on the iceberg drift. Kinetic energy balance of drift iceberg is used to estimate the forces applied to the iceberg by the drift ice.  相似文献   

Obtaining the distribution of quiescent periods directly from the power spectral densities of Sea waves     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

There is a growing practical interest in the ability to increase the sea states at which marine operations can be safely undertaken by exploiting the quiescent periods that are well known to exist under a wide range of sea conditions. While the actual prediction of quiescent periods at sea for the control of operations is a deterministic process, the long term planning of future maritime tasks that rely on these quiescent periods is a statistical process involving the anticipated quiescence properties of the forecasted sea conditions in the geographical region of interest. It is in principle possible to obtain such data in tabular form either large scale simulation or from field data. However, such simulations are computationally intensive and libraries of appropriate field data are not common. Thus, it is clearly attractive to develop techniques that exploit standard wave spectral models for describing the quiescence statistics directly from such spectra. The present study focuses upon such techniques and is a first step towards the production of a computationally low-cost quiescence prediction tool and compares its efficacy against simulations. Two significant properties emerge for a large class of wave spectral models that encompasses the ubiquitous Neumann and Pierson Moskowitz or Bretschneider forms. Firstly, the auto-correlation function of the wave profile that are required to produce the quiescence property can be obtained analytically in terms of standard special functions. This considerably reduces the computational cost making desktop computer-based planning tools a reality. Secondly, for each class of these parametric spectra, the probability of a given number of consecutive wave heights (normalised to the significant wave heights) less than some critical value is in fact independent of absolute wave height. Thus, for a broad class of practically interesting wave spectra all that is required to obtain the statistical distribution of the quiescent periods is simple rescaling.  相似文献   

建筑结构地震易损性分析研究综述   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

贾晗曦  林均岐  刘金龙 《震灾防御技术》2019,14(1):42-51

地震易损性是指在不同强度水平的地震作用下建筑结构发生各种破坏的条件概率。本文对地震易损性分析的发展历程进行回顾和总结，介绍了地震易损性的相关概念、研究目的和意义以及5个表达工具。随后，针对国内外学者对建筑结构的易损性分析方法开展了系统的梳理和分析，特别是从基于震害调查的经验分析法和基于数值模拟的理论计算法方面展开了重点综述，并简单介绍了一些不常用的方法。最后指出了国内外对建筑结构易损性分析研究的不足和未来的研究方向。  相似文献   

各向异性介质的矢量波场分离与应用          下载免费PDF全文

芦俊  石瑛  杨春颖 《地球物理学报》2018,61(8):3310-3323

针对裂缝各向异性介质，本文提出一种非正交假设下的矢量波场分离方法.本文首先对多分量地震勘探中常见的波型泄漏现象进行了数学描述，提出在纵、横波波场分离的同时应该考虑恢复纵、横波的矢量振幅.为了对裂缝方位角与各向异性系数进行定量预测，本文将矢量波场分离拆分成三个步骤来实施：第一步，用Z、R两分量的仿射坐标系变换分离ZR平面内的P波投影与SV波；第二步，用ZR平面内的P波投影与T分量的仿射坐标系变换分离P波与SH波；第三步，用纯净的SV波与SH波的成像剖面分离快慢横波，并预测裂缝发育参数.模型数据与实际数据的试验结果表明，本文提出的纵、横波波场分离方法能够获得完整的矢量振幅信息，并提供裂缝预测的精度.  相似文献   

Numerical assessment of tsunami attack on a rubble mound breakwater using OpenFOAM®     

《Applied Ocean Research》2018

A numerical assessment study of tsunami attack on the rubble mound breakwater of Haydarpasa Port, located at the southern entrance of the Istanbul Bosphorus Strait in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, is carried out in this study using a Volume-Averaged Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solver, IHFOAM, developed in OpenFOAM^® environment. The numerical model is calibrated with and validated against the data from solitary wave and tsunami overflow experiments representing tsunami attack. Furthermore, attack of a potential tsunami near Haydarpasa Port is simulated to investigate effects of a more realistic tsunami that cannot be generated in a wave flume with the present state of the art technology. Discussions on practical engineering applications of this type of numerical modeling studies are given focusing on pressure distributions around the crown-wall of the rubble mound breakwater, and the forces acting on the single stone located behind the crown-wall at the rear side of the breakwater. Numerical modeling of stability/failure mechanism of the overall cross-section is studied throughout the paper.The present study shows that hydrodynamics along the wave flume and over the breakwater can be simulated properly for both solitary wave and tsunami overflow experiments. Stability of the overall cross-section can only be simulated qualitatively for solitary wave cases; on the other hand, the effect of the time elapsed during tsunami overflow cannot be reflected in the simulations using the present numerical tool. However, the stability of the overall cross-section under tsunami overflow is assessed by evaluating forces acting on the rear side armor unit supporting the crown-wall of the rubble mound breakwater as a practical engineering application in the present paper. Furthermore, two non-dimensional parameters are derived to discuss the stability of this armor unit; and thus, the stability condition of the overall cross-section. Approximate threshold values for these non-dimensional parameters are presented comparing experimental and numerical results as a starting point for engineers in practice. Finally, investigations on the solitary wave and tsunami overflow experiments/simulations are extended to the potential tsunami simulation in the scope of both representation of a realistic tsunami in a wave flume and stability of the rubble mound breakwater.  相似文献   

Multi‐Scale Fuzzy Inference System for Influent Characteristic Prediction of Wastewater Treatment          下载免费PDF全文

Zhiwei Cheng  Xuejiao Li  Yun Bai  Chuan Li 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2018,46(7)

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Seismic electric signals in seismic prone areas          下载免费PDF全文

Nicholas V.Sarlis  Panayiotis A.Varotsos  Efthimios S.Skordas  Seiya Uyeda  Jacques Zlotnicki  Toshiyasu Nagao  Anatoly Rybin  Mary S.Lazaridou-Varotsos  Konstantina A.Papadopoulou 《地震科学（英文版）》2018,31(1):44-51

The Varotsos-Alexopoulos-Nomicos(VAN) method of short-term earthquake prediction was introduced in the 1980s. The VAN method enables estimation of the epicenter, magnitude and occurrence time of an impending earthquake by observing transient changes of the electric field of the Earth termed seismic electric signals(SES). Here, we present a few examples of SES observed in various earthquake prone areas worldwide.  相似文献