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排序方式: 共有774条查询结果,搜索用时 140 毫秒
1.
欧亚大陆积雪是重要的气候预测因子,评估其在气候模式中的预测潜力可为季节气候预测和模式发展提供重要参考。本文利用IAP AGCM4的多年集合后报结果,分析了欧亚大陆春季雪水当量的可预报性。结果表明该模式对提前1月后报的欧亚大陆春季雪水当量的空间分布,主要模态及变化趋势具有较好的可预报能力。此外模式对欧亚中高纬积雪的年际异常也具有较高的预报技巧,特别是高纬度区域。可预报性来源分析则表明,大气初始异常对欧亚中高纬积雪可预报性的影响与海温异常相比显得更为重要。  相似文献   
2.
A numerical assessment study of tsunami attack on the rubble mound breakwater of Haydarpasa Port, located at the southern entrance of the Istanbul Bosphorus Strait in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, is carried out in this study using a Volume-Averaged Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solver, IHFOAM, developed in OpenFOAM® environment. The numerical model is calibrated with and validated against the data from solitary wave and tsunami overflow experiments representing tsunami attack. Furthermore, attack of a potential tsunami near Haydarpasa Port is simulated to investigate effects of a more realistic tsunami that cannot be generated in a wave flume with the present state of the art technology. Discussions on practical engineering applications of this type of numerical modeling studies are given focusing on pressure distributions around the crown-wall of the rubble mound breakwater, and the forces acting on the single stone located behind the crown-wall at the rear side of the breakwater. Numerical modeling of stability/failure mechanism of the overall cross-section is studied throughout the paper.The present study shows that hydrodynamics along the wave flume and over the breakwater can be simulated properly for both solitary wave and tsunami overflow experiments. Stability of the overall cross-section can only be simulated qualitatively for solitary wave cases; on the other hand, the effect of the time elapsed during tsunami overflow cannot be reflected in the simulations using the present numerical tool. However, the stability of the overall cross-section under tsunami overflow is assessed by evaluating forces acting on the rear side armor unit supporting the crown-wall of the rubble mound breakwater as a practical engineering application in the present paper. Furthermore, two non-dimensional parameters are derived to discuss the stability of this armor unit; and thus, the stability condition of the overall cross-section. Approximate threshold values for these non-dimensional parameters are presented comparing experimental and numerical results as a starting point for engineers in practice. Finally, investigations on the solitary wave and tsunami overflow experiments/simulations are extended to the potential tsunami simulation in the scope of both representation of a realistic tsunami in a wave flume and stability of the rubble mound breakwater.  相似文献   
3.
Initial errors and model errors are the source of prediction errors. In this study, the authors compute the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP)-type initial errors and nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV)- type tendency errors of the Zebiak-Cane model with respect to El Nifio events and analyze their combined effect on the prediction errors for E1 Nino events. The CNOP- type initial error (NFSV-type tendency error) represents the initial errors (model errors) that have the largest effect on prediction uncertainties for E1 Nifio events under the perfect model (perfect initial conditions) scenario. How- ever, when the CNOP-type initial errors and the NFSV- type tendency errors are simultaneously considered in the model, the prediction errors caused by them are not am- plified as the authors expected. Specifically, the predic- tion errors caused by the combined mode of CNOP-type initial errors and NFSV-type tendency errors are a little larger than those caused by the NFSV-type tendency er- rors. This fact emphasizes a need to investigate the opti- mal combined mode of initial errors and tendency errors that cause the largest prediction error for E1 Nifio events.  相似文献   
4.
In airborne gravity gradiometry, the Gravity Module Assembly is an optional gravimeter unit that is mounted on the same stabilized platform as the Full Tensor Gradiometer. Direct measurements of the gravity field are needed from this device to constrain the long wavelengths when gradient data are integrated mathematically to form high-resolution gravity fields. The Gravity Module Assembly is, however, capable of providing independent gravity data with a specification approaching that expected from a dedicated airborne gravity system. Presented here is an error analysis of data from this instrument collected alongside the Full Tensor Gradiometer during an airborne survey. By having both gradiometry and gravity datasets, comparisons of the information content in these two types of measurement are made.  相似文献   
5.
Optically pumped vapour magnetometers have an orientation dependency in measuring the scalar component of the ambient magnetic field which leads to challenges for integration with mobile platforms. Quantifying the three-dimensional attitude variations (yaw, pitch and roll) of an optically pumped vapour magnetometer, while in-flight and suspended underneath a rotary unmanned aerial vehicle, aids in the successful development of reliable, high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle magnetometry surveys. This study investigates the in-flight three-dimensional attitude characteristics of a GEM Systems Inc. GSMP-35U potassium vapour magnetometer suspended 3 m underneath a Dà-Jiāng Innovations S900 multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicle. A series of unmanned aerial vehicle-borne attitude surveys quantified the three-dimensional attitude variations that a simulated magnetometer payload experienced while freely (or semi-rigidly) suspended underneath the unmanned aerial vehicle in fair weather. Analysis of the compiled yaw, pitch and roll data resulted in the design of a specialized semi-rigid magnetometer mount, implemented to limit magnetometer rotation about the yaw axis. A subsequent unmanned aerial vehicle-borne magnetic survey applying this specialized mount resulted in more than 99% of gathered GSMP-35U magnetic data being within industry standards. Overall, this study validates that maintaining magnetometer attitude variations within quantified limits (±5° yaw, ±10° pitch and roll) during flight can yield reliable, continuous and high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle-borne magnetic measurements.  相似文献   
6.
位涡外部源汇是驱动大气环流的原动力。文中详细介绍了地表位涡制造和位涡密度强迫的联系,讨论了不同坐标系中位涡密度方程的特点及其在应用中应当注意的问题。还以2008年初南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害为例,探讨了青藏高原地表位涡密度强迫及东传对下游地区对流性天气发生的影响,拟由此揭示青藏高原位涡密度强迫激发中国东部激烈天气发生的一种新机制。伴随着青藏高原地表正位涡密度的东传,下游地区对流层中高层出现纬向正绝对涡度平流,气旋性环流增强,从而促使低空南风发展,为南方地区提供充沛的水汽条件。另外,南风的增强有利于低空经向负绝对涡度平流的加强,从而使南方地区高、低空形成绝对涡度平流随高度增大的大尺度环流背景,有利于上升运动的发展。上升运动的加强又促进低空南风气流的增强,使高、低空绝对涡度平流随高度增大的环流背景进一步增强,最终导致降水的产生。   相似文献   
7.
This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). In Part I, it is shown that the model error of GRAPES may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, a further examination of the model error is the focus of Part II. Considering model error as a type of forcing, the model error can be represented by the combination of good forecasts and bad forecasts. Results show that there are systematic model errors. The model error of the geopotential height component has periodic features, with a period of 24 h and a global pattern of wavenumber 2 from west to east located between 60°S and 60°N. This periodic model error presents similar features as the atmospheric semidiurnal tide, which reflect signals from tropical diabatic heating, indicating that the parameter errors related to the tropical diabatic heating may be the source of the periodic model error. The above model errors are subtracted from the forecast equation and a series of new forecasts are made. The average forecasting capability using the rectified model is improved compared to simply improving the initial conditions of the original GRAPES model. This confirms the strong impact of the periodic model error on landfalling TC track forecasts. Besides, if the model error used to rectify the model is obtained from an examination of additional TCs, the forecasting capabilities of the corresponding rectified model will be improved.  相似文献   
8.
High‐resolution aeromagnetic data over the Bida Basin, North Central Nigeria has been analysed to investigate the possible continuity of Ifewara fault zone, through the Bida Basin, to Zungeru fault zone. Analytic signal magnitude, horizontal gradient magnitude, and Euler deconvolution methods were applied to the aeromagnetic data to delineate the subsurface structures. The results showed that a prominent NNE–SSW trending fault associated with the Ifewara fault zone extends through the study area. Other faults trending in the ENE–WSW, NE–SW, NW–SE, E–W, and WNW–ESE directions were also mapped. Interpreted models revealed the presence of intrusives and a possible mineralised zone within the study area. We therefore concluded that the inferred fault zones within the basin have affinity with the trend of the Ifewara fault zone, which is an indication of possible extension and linkage with Zungeru fault zone through the Bida Basin.  相似文献   
9.
基于1979—2015年ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了夏季"丝绸之路"(the Silk Road,即SR)模态与东亚地区大气环流之间的联系,结果表明:在SR模态正异常年,200 hPa亚洲急流在东亚地区比较弯曲,在中国新疆和环渤海地区500 hPa上分别有一个高度脊和一个高度槽,在蒙古国、中国内蒙古以及日本以东500 hPa上有显著的位势高度正异常,风场异常与高度场配合较好。在对流层中低层的中国北方,有明显的下沉气流,在中国内蒙古、蒙古国以及日本以东,出现位涡负异常,而在朝鲜半岛附近,则有位涡正异常出现。中国环渤海地区降水偏少,而日本大部分地区降水偏多。在SR模态负异常年,200 hPa急流相对平直且更强,500 hPa的波列特征比正异常年更加显著,在中国内蒙古和蒙古国、朝鲜半岛、日本以东分别有"-、+、-"分布的位势高度场异常。与正异常年相比,位于东亚135°E附近的正异常中心变得显著,在该异常中心的西侧和东侧分别有上升和下沉异常气流,对应在朝鲜半岛和中国东北附近有较大的位涡负异常。在环渤海、朝鲜半岛南部和日本、日本以东洋面上,降水分别出现偏多、偏少和偏多现象。  相似文献   
10.
关于业务上应用条件对称不稳定相关问题的讨论   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
章丽娜  周小刚  夏扬 《气象学报》2018,76(5):824-832
条件对称不稳定(CSI)理论常常被用来作为倾斜对流的发展机制之一,在业务上常用来解释与锋面相联系的一条或多条中尺度雨带、雷达图像上观测到的带状雨带的成因等。条件对称不稳定的诊断包括CSI斜率判据、斜升对流有效位能(SCAPE)、湿对称不稳定(MSI)、相当位涡(EPV)等判据。业务预报人员存疑较多的问题是这些方法是否具有一致性并在业务上如何使用。针对上述问题,首先通过与业务预报人员较熟悉的条件不稳定类型作类比,来说明条件对称不稳定两种判据与条件不稳定两种判据的相似性。但在业务使用上,判别条件对称不稳定时多使用CSI斜率判据,即等动量面的坡度大于等位温面坡度而小于等湿球位温面坡度。由于条件对称不稳定通常出现在大气处于几乎饱和的情况下,此时的CSI斜率判据则演变为湿对称不稳定判据,即等动量面坡度小于等湿球位温面坡度。为判别相当位涡与湿对称不稳定判据是否具有一致性,文中的推导和实例分析均表明,二维相当位涡实际上是湿对称不稳定判据的另一种表现形式,但是湿对称不稳定判据需主观去比较等相当位温面与等动量面斜率大小,而二维相当位涡则可通过其是否小于0进行客观判断。需注意的是,在与推导条件对称不稳定斜率判据相同的二维坐标下,相当位涡与湿对称不稳定判据才具有一致性,将相当位涡扩展到常规坐标下使用三维相当位涡作为湿对称不稳定判据是不可取的。   相似文献   
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