Simulation of urban expansion via integrating artificial neural network with Markov chain – cellular automata     

Tingting Xu  Jay Gao  Giovanni Coco 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(10):1960-1983

Accurate simulations and predictions of urban expansion are critical to manage urbanization and explicitly address the spatiotemporal trends and distributions of urban expansion. Cellular Automata integrated Markov Chain (CA-MC) is one of the most frequently used models for this purpose. However, the urban suitability index (USI) map produced from the conventional CA-MC is either affected by human bias or cannot accurately reflect the possible nonlinear relations between driving factors and urban expansion. To overcome these limitations, a machine learning model (Artificial Neural Network, ANN) was integrated with CA-MC instead of the commonly used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Logistic Regression (LR) CA-MC models. The ANN was optimized to create the USI map and then integrated with CA-MC to spatially allocate urban expansion cells. The validated results of kappa and fuzzy kappa simulation indicate that ANN-CA-MC outperformed other variously coupled CA-MC modelling approaches. Based on the ANN-CA-MC model, the urban area in South Auckland is predicted to expand to 1340.55 ha in 2026 at the expense of non-urban areas, mostly grassland and open-bare land. Most of the future expansion will take place within the planned new urban growth zone.  相似文献   

Reliability of mooring lines and piles for a permanently manned vessel in a tropical cyclone environment     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved.  相似文献   

复杂载荷作用下立管触地段损伤管道的动力响应     

代云云  周晶  李志刚 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2020,(1):145-153

触地段(Touchdown zone, TDZ)是在役钢悬链线立管(Steel catenary riser, SCR)的关键部位,在复杂载荷作用下,极易形成损伤缺陷,其载荷寿命的评估是深海结构工程中的一个关键问题。本文以大型有限元软件ABAQUS为平台,运用损伤管道实体单元与土弹簧阻尼单元相互作用的模型模拟触地段损伤海底管道在复杂载荷作用下的动力响应,数值计算考虑了管-土相互作用过程中的材料非线性、几何非线性以及接触非线性。讨论了单一环向体积损伤位于触地段管道的不同位置时,触地段损伤管道在不同载荷作用下的动力特性及特征点的动力响应。结果表明,管道所受内外压力以及管道提升端的竖向位移载荷会影响结构的自振频率;体积损伤部位的动力响应较完好部位更剧烈;体积损伤的位置和动力载荷频率对管道动力放大系数的影响很大;当动力载荷的激励频率越接近结构基频时,损伤管道的动力响应及动力放大系数越大。  相似文献   

中国城市价值链功能分工及其影响因素     

盛科荣  王丽萍  孙威 《地理研究》2020,39(12):2763-2778

价值链的空间重组正在深刻的改变着城市体系的经济景观,建立在价值链分工基础上的城市功能结构的研究已经成为经济地理学的重要课题。将中国上市公司500强企业网络划分为公司总部、商务服务、研究开发、传统制造、现代制造、物流仓储和批发零售七种类型功能区块,研究了中国城市价值链功能分工及其影响因素。结果发现：沿着价值链的功能分工已经成为中国城市体系经济景观的显著特征,功能多样化城市和功能专业化城市并存于中国城市体系,东部地区和城市密集地区的城市在价值链分工中占据了更好的地位;中国城市按照价值链中的优势功能可以划分为九种类型,少数城市转变为承载公司总部、研究开发、商务服务等多样化功能的高等级中心城市,而大量中小城市则转变为传统制造专业化基地;市场潜力、关键资源、区位条件、营商环境等城市属性特征是城市功能分工的重要影响因素,城市资源、区位可达性等属性特征的增强将提高城市成为总部基地、商务中心和研究基地的概率,而降低城市成为传统制造基地的概率。  相似文献   

Mitigating the effects of sand dunes on seismic data from the Rub al Khali basin,Saudi Arabia     

Mustafa Al-Marzooq  Mamadou S. Diallo  Vincent Etienne  Thierry Tonellot  SanLinn I. Kaka 《Geophysical Prospecting》2019,67(7):1825-1837

The Rub Al Khali region in Saudi Arabia is characterized by the presence of sand dunes separated by salt flats, also called Sabkhas. In general, the elevation of dunes in this region varies between 90 and 250 m above sea level. The presence of these sand dunes, along with the rapidly changing surface topography poses challenges for seismic data acquisition and processing. The high contrast in acoustic impedance between the dune base and the underlying formation often results in amplification of seismic waves that are recorded at stations located on the surface of sand dunes. Attempts to address the issue using conventional surface-consistent amplitude scaling methods without reducing these amplification effects generally fail, thus compromising the suitability of the processed data for amplitude versus offset analysis. In this study, we propose a new reference site technique to reduce the effects of sand dune amplification, enabling the production of data sets that are suitable for amplitude versus offset processing. The proposed technique uses a deterministic approach to derive surface-consistent, frequency-dependent de-amplification functions for shots and stations located on the dunes only. Two-dimensional synthetic and field data examples show that the technique significantly reduces the effects of sand dune amplification.  相似文献   

一种基于GA-BP-MC神经网络的高铁桥墩沉降预测模型     

冯绍权  花向红  陶武勇  宣伟  吴伟  续东 《测绘通报》2019,(7):50-53,82

提出一种基于马尔科夫链修正的遗传BP神经网络预测模型（GA-BP-MC），利用遗传算法的全局寻优能力初始化BP神经网络权值和阈值，初步建立GA-BP神经网络预测模型，结合马尔科夫链的无后效性修正模型预测值，形成高精度GA-BP-MC神经网络变形预测模型。结合高铁桥墩沉降数据，分别与BP神经网络、GA-BP神经网络预测模型进行对比，结果表明，该预测模型精度最高。  相似文献   

双轴压缩条件下颗粒材料中力链的演化     

付龙龙  周顺华  田志尧  田哲侃 《岩土力学》2019,40(6):2427-2434

针对无黏性颗粒材料，开展了柔性边界双轴压缩数值试验，分析了不同围压下力链的数量、方向概率等随轴向应变的变化。研究结果表明：不断加载使得游离的高应力颗粒有所减少，荷载更多的被力链承担；统计意义上，力链最大长度为9个颗粒。轴向±30o范围内力链概率随应变的发展与偏应力一致，而与其邻接的[40o，60o]和[120o，140o]两个方向上的力链概率随应变的发展与偏应力相反；双轴试样剪切破坏时有单剪切带和双剪切带两种模式，当[40o，60o]和[120o，140o]两个角度区间的力链概率有较大差异时，剪切带出现在力链较少的角度区间；当这两个角度区间力链概率接近时，试样中将出现两个剪切带。  相似文献   

基于SLAF-seq技术的黑棘鲷微卫星标记开发及其在鲷科鱼类中的通用性研究     

吴仁协  肖瑶  牛素芳  翟云  张浩冉  陈伟勇  黎晓 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(2):365-377

黑棘鲷(Acanthopagrusschlegelii)是广泛分布于西北太平洋的暖温性中下层经济鱼类,也是我国沿海重要的海洋捕捞鱼类和增养殖对象。然而,目前有关黑棘鲷的微卫星标记研究报道较少,难以对其种质资源状况作出精确评估。本研究采用SLAF-seq技术测序共获得22489个二至六碱基重复的黑棘鲷微卫星序列,短重复序列(二、三碱基)占总微卫星序列的90.8%,长重复序列(四至六碱基)占有9.2%。经过157对随机合成引物的多态性筛选,开发出49个高多态性的黑棘鲷微卫星标记,其中短重复序列位点有25个,长重复序列位点有24个。每个位点的等位基因数(Na)为2—20(均值为8.3),观测杂合度(Ho)和期望杂合度(He)分别为0.097—0.938和0.122—0.922(均值分别为0.663和0.701),多态信息含量(PIC)为0.118—0.897(均值为0.655)。经Bonferroni校正后,有47个位点符合哈迪-温伯格平衡(HWE),各位点间未检测到连锁不平衡现象,仅2个位点偏离HWE。结果表明,所开发的大部分微卫星标记具有高多态性,蕴含的遗传信息含量较为丰富,能够为黑棘鲷的种群遗传资源评估提供数量充足、类型多样的有效分子标记。跨物种扩增结果显示,有43个黑棘鲷微卫星标记可在9种鲷科鱼类中成功扩增,其中28个标记在太平洋棘鲷(Acanthopagruspacificus)、黄鳍棘鲷(Acanthopagruslatus)和澳洲棘鲷(Acanthopagrusaustralis)中具有较好的通用性,2个标记在平鲷(Rhabdosargussarba)、蓝点赤鲷(Pagruscaeruleostictus)、真赤鲷(Pagrusmajor)、二长棘犁齿鲷(Evynnis cardinalis)及黄牙鲷(Dentex hypselosomus)中具有通用性。这些通用性标记可为阐明鲷科属、种间的系统进化关系和棘鲷属鱼类的群体遗传学分析提供新的标记来源和研究角度。  相似文献   

利用扩增vvhA基因的环介导等温扩增技术快速，特异而敏感地检测创伤弧菌     

张丽娜  王明义  丛殿霞  丁淑研  丛日楠  岳进勇  耿建利  胡成进 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(4):83-88

创伤弧菌是一种可感染人类的河口病原菌。建立快速，特异而敏感的检测方法，有助于创伤弧菌感染的早期疾病诊断和及时治疗。本研究设计了针对vvhA基因的一系列引物（包括两对外部引物和两对内部引物），采用环介导等温扩增技术（LAMP）来检测创伤弧菌。结果显示，本方法的最适扩增温度是63℃，反应仅需35分钟。扩增产物不仅可以用含有DNA ladder的琼脂糖凝胶电泳检出，也可借助钙黄绿素直接肉眼观察。采用45株菌株检测该方法的特异性，其中所有创伤弧菌均被检出而其他菌株检测结果皆为阴性。本方法的敏感性是普通PCR扩增的100倍，同时利用该方法可以准确检测出所有的模拟样品、临床标本及环境样品。与其他已知方法比较，针对vvhA基因的介导等温扩增技术可以快速、简单、敏感及特异地鉴定创伤弧菌。  相似文献   

黄土河谷场地地形放大效应的研究     

王良  卢育霞  马林伟  孔德政 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(2):167-171

使用黄土河谷场地模型对地震动峰值加速度和频谱特征进行研究。结果表明，不同工况下各观测点PGA的放大比呈现出不同的变化规律。分析山顶和山谷各点的傅里叶谱以及谱比发现，在地形和土层共同作用下的放大效应是各自单独作用下放大效应的乘积。  相似文献