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1.
Maarten Wynants Aloyce Patrick Linus Munishi Kelvin Mtei Samuel Bodé Alex Taylor Geoffrey Millward Neil Roberts David Gilvear Patrick Ndakidemi Pascal Boeckx William H. Blake 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(15):3112-3126
Soil resources in parts of Tanzania are rapidly being depleted by increased rates of soil erosion and downstream sediment transport, threatening ecosystem health, water and livelihood security in the region. However, incomplete understanding to what effect the dynamics of soil erosion and sediment transport are responding to land-use changes and climatic variability are hindering the actions needed to future-proof Tanzanian land-use practices. Complementary environmental diagnostic tools were applied to reconstruct the rates and sources of sedimentation over time in three Tanzanian river systems that have experienced changing land use and climatic conditions. Detailed historical analysis of sediment deposits revealed drastic changes in sediment yield and source contributions. Quantitative sedimentation reconstruction using radionuclide dating showed a 20-fold increase in sediment yield over the past 120 years. The observed dramatic increase in sediment yield is most likely driven by increasing land-use pressures. Deforestation, cropland expansion and increasing grazing pressures resulted into accelerating rates of sheet erosion. A regime shift after years of progressive soil degradation and convergence of surface flows resulted into a highly incised landscape, where high amounts of eroded soil from throughout the catchment are rapidly transported downstream by strongly connected ephemeral drainage networks. By integrating complementary spatial and temporal evidence bases, this study demonstrated links between land-use change, increased soil erosion and downstream sedimentation. Such evidence can guide stakeholders and policy makers in the design of targeted management interventions to safeguard future soil health and water quality. 相似文献
2.
利用耦合了平板海洋模型的全球气候模式进行了大量的格林函数实验,以探究两极地区对于施加在中低纬度海域的热强迫的气候响应。结果表明,北极地区的气候不仅受到距离较近的北太平洋与北大西洋的影响,远离北极的热带太平洋以及南太平洋也对其气候有显著的影响,南极地区的气候则主要是受到邻近的南大洋的影响。通过经验正交函数法的进一步分析发现,北极响应最显著的区域包括波弗特海(Beaufort Sea)、拉普捷夫海(Laptev Sea)以及北极中心区附近;南极地区的响应主要集中在别林斯高晋海(Bellinsgauzen Sea)区域。另外,利用温度归因法对辐射反馈过程和大气能量输运分解发现,北极地区表面温度的响应主要是受到了反照率反馈以及垂直递减率反馈的影响,而南极地区的响应则主要是反照率反馈发挥了作用。 相似文献
3.
干热岩试验性开发井钻井施工,在高温硬岩的地层条件下,如何实现高效钻进仍存在很多技术难点。空气潜孔锤钻进技术是解决硬岩地层钻进的有效方法之一,潜孔锤钻头是空气潜孔锤钻进的关键器具。根据青海共和干热岩GH-01井空气潜孔锤钻进技术应用情况,分析探讨了空气潜孔锤钻头断齿、掉齿、磨损严重、使用寿命短等问题,从钻头结构设计、钻头材料选取、钻头冷压固齿工艺等几个方面对空气潜孔锤钻头进行了优化。固齿优化过程中采用有限元分析方法,对钻头冷压固齿过盈量进行仿真分析计算,根据分析计算结果确定最优固齿过盈量。通过对潜孔锤钻头结构、材料、加工等优化,为适用于高温硬岩的空气潜孔锤钻头研制提供了借鉴。为提高空气潜孔锤钻进综合效率,为干热岩钻探开发提供了技术支持和技术储备。 相似文献
4.
为评估CWRF模式的降尺度能力和其热带气旋模拟对物理参数化方案的敏感性,本文利用ERI再分析资料驱动CWRF在30km网格上对1982-2016年中国近海热带气旋开展了一次集合模拟.结果表明:CWRF与ERI均能模拟出热带气旋的季节变化和年际变化形势且均存在低估,但相较ERI,CWRF的降尺度技术和集合模拟可以再现更多的热带气旋,显著减少低估.年际变化结果提升最为明显,它对积云方案最为敏感,其次是边界层,陆面和辐射方案,对云和微物理方案较弱.该研究为应用CWRF理解和预报热带气旋提供了参考. 相似文献
5.
Alison L. Kay 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14137
Climate change is likely to manifest in river flow changes across the globe, which could have wide-ranging consequences for society and the natural environment. A number of previous studies used the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) to investigate the potential impacts on river flows in Britain, but these projections were recently updated by the release of UKCP18, thus there is a need to update flow studies. Here, the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections are applied using a national-scale grid-based hydrological model, to investigate potential future changes in seasonal mean river flows across Great Britain. Analysis of hydrological model performance using baseline climate model data (1980–2010) shows relatively good agreement with use of observation-based data, particularly after application of a monthly precipitation bias-correction. Analysis of seasonal mean flow changes for two future time-slices (2020–2050 and 2050–2080) suggests large decreases in summer flows across the country (median −45% by 2050–2080), but possible increases in winter flows (median 9% by 2050–2080), especially in the north and west. Information on the potential range of flow changes using the latest projections is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies, and comparisons with previous projections can help update existing plans, although such comparisons are often not straightforward. 相似文献
6.
Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley,central Switzerland
Manfred Stähli Jan Seibert James W. Kirchner Jana von Freyberg Ilja van Meerveld 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14113
When the observation of small headwater catchments in the pre-Alpine Alptal valley (central Switzerland) started in the late 1960s, the researchers were mainly interested in questions related to floods and forest management. Investigations of geomorphological processes in the steep torrent channels followed in the 1980s, along with detailed observations of biogeochemical and ecohydrological processes in individual forest stands. More recently, research in the Alptal has addressed the impacts of climate change on water supply and runoff generation. In this article, we describe, for the first time, the evolution of catchment research at Alptal, and present new analyses of long-term trends and short-term hydrologic behaviour. Hydrometeorological time series from the past 50 years show substantial interannual variability, but only minimal long-term trends, except for the ~2°C increase in mean annual air temperature over the 50-year period, and a corresponding shift towards earlier snowmelt. Similar to previous studies in larger Alpine catchments, the decadal variations in mean annual runoff in Alptal's small research catchments reflect the long-term variability in annual precipitation. In the Alptal valley, the most evident hydrological trends were observed in late spring and are related to the substantial change in the duration of the snow cover. Streamflow and water quality are highly variable within and between hydrological events, suggesting rapid shifts in flow pathways and mixing, as well as changing connectivity of runoff-generating areas. This overview illustrates how catchment research in the Alptal has evolved in response to changing societal concerns and emerging scientific questions. 相似文献
7.
选取福州大学校园教学区为研究区域,基于典型冬季日背景,运用三维非静力微气候模型ENVI-met,分析模拟校园热环境的差异变化及其热舒适度响应。结合实地勘测,对模型进行校准和验证。结果表明:ENVI-met模型能较好地表征室外热环境,准确预测温度和相对湿度的日变化趋势。混凝土路面、灰色地砖路面行人高度的日平均气温分别比草地高出0.1 ℃和0.3 ℃,逐时最大温差分别为0.68 ℃和0.65 ℃。建筑物阴影和树阴可降低行人高度的气温1.1—1.9 ℃;同一组团在有无遮阴的条件下,平均辐射温度(Tmrt)相差最大可达30 ℃;树木附近和建筑物组团内部生理等效温度(PET)值较小,比硬质路面低2—3个等级。无植被方案下,高温低湿区范围有所扩张,在垂直方向上的增温效应可伸展至10.5 m;风速最大增幅可达1.23 m·s-1,平均辐射温度较高区域的面积增加了69.25%;热舒适区和热不适区面积分别增加了19.78%和2.03%。 相似文献
8.
Taotao Zhang Yang Xiao Dongfang Liang Hongwu Tang Junzeng Xu Saiyu Yuan Nairu Wang Bin Luan 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14152
Dissolved pollutants in stormwater are a main contributor to water pollution in urban environments. However, many existing transport models are semi-empirical and only consider one-dimensional flows, which limit their predictive capacity. Combining the shallow water and the advection–diffusion equations, a two-dimensional physically based model is developed for dissolved pollutant transport by adopting the concept of a ‘control layer’. A series of laboratory experiments has been conducted to validate the proposed model, taking into account the effects of buildings and intermittent rainfalls. The predictions are found to be in good agreement with experimental observations, which supports the assumption that the depth of the control layer is constant. Based on the validated model, a parametric study is conducted, focusing on the characteristics of the pollutant distribution and transport rate over the depth. The hyetograph, including the intensity, duration and intermittency, of rainfall event has a significant influence on the pollutant transport rates. The depth of the control layer, rainfall intensity, surface roughness and area length are dominant factors that affect the dissolved pollutant transport. Finally, several perspectives of the new pollutant transport model are discussed. This study contributes to an in-depth understanding of the dissolved pollutant transport processes on impermeable surfaces and urban stormwater management. 相似文献
9.
作为全球煤电装机规模最大且仍在扩张的国家,中国需要慎重评估兑现《巴黎协定》温室气体减排承诺带来的潜在煤电资产搁浅问题。研究运用“上下交互”的碳锁定曲线模型,识别不同产能扩张情景下(无新增、新增200、300和400 GW)的搁浅煤电机组。首先,从“自上而下”角度匡算中国煤电行业2℃温升目标下的碳配额。然后,从“自下而上”角度,根据高精度的燃煤电站信息核算煤电累积CO2排放量。最后基于“上下交互”模式筛选出搁浅燃煤电站,在此基础上运用现金流量法估算其潜在的搁浅价值,并对其关键因素进行敏感性分析。结果表明,在无新增情景下,煤电搁浅资产规模约为0.38万亿元;若继续增加200~400 GW煤电装机,则搁浅价值将较无新增情景增加3.7~8.2倍。因此,建议“十四五”期间应树立煤电规模峰值意识,严控煤电新增产能,避免错过最佳减排时机。 相似文献
10.
瞬变电磁法应用于矿产资源、环境工程等领域。目前主流的瞬变电磁三维正演模拟方法包括积分方程法、有限差分法、有限体积法和有限元法。随着观测环境的复杂化以及探测精度要求的提高,有必要研究瞬变电磁法高精度三维模拟计算,以便推动数据处理解释方法的进步。本文系统介绍了瞬变电磁三维正演计算研究进展,分析了准静态差分方程的构建和发射源的加载及边界的处理等有限差分法的关键技术,厘定出空间和时间离散以及大型线性方程组的求解等有限元法的难题。瞬变电磁数值模拟今后的发展方向是深入开展近源情况下受场源效应、复杂地形、极化效应等影响的三维模拟,以及特殊场情况下的多源多分量响应计算,为瞬变电磁法精细探测提供理论支撑。 相似文献