BDS卫星差分码偏差稳定性分析及其短期预报     

梅登奎  闻德保 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(7):746-750

利用MGEX(multi-GNSS experiment)发布的BDS卫星差分码偏差(differential code bias, DCB)产品，比较分析不同太阳活动水平下BDS卫星DCB产品的稳定性变化特性，并采用差分自回归移动平均(auto-regressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)时间序列预测模型，实现不同太阳活动水平下BDS卫星DCB的短期预报。结果表明，在太阳活动高年，BDS卫星DCB日解值稳定度、月稳定性均明显低于太阳活动低年，且不同卫星星座类型的BDS卫星DCB稳定性也存在差异；ARIMA时间序列预报结果与MGEX发布值符合程度较好，优于多项式拟合法预测结果。  相似文献   

Copper Isotopic Analysis in Geological and Biological Reference Materials by MC‐ICP‐MS     

Kaj Sullivan  Daniel Layton‐Matthews  Matthew Leybourne  James Kidder  Zoltn Mester  Lu Yang 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2020,44(2):349-362

The characterisation of relative copper isotope amount ratios (δ⁶⁵Cu) helps constrain a variety of geochemical processes occurring in the geosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere. The accurate and precise determination of δ⁶⁵Cu in matrix reference materials is crucial in the effort to validate measurement methods. With the goal of expanding the number and variety of available geological and biological materials, we have characterised the δ⁶⁵Cu values of ten reference materials by MC‐ICP‐MS using C‐SSBIN model for mass bias correction. SGR‐1b (Green River shale), DOLT‐5 (dogfish liver), DORM‐4 (fish protein), TORT‐3 (lobster hepatopancreas), MESS‐4 (marine sediment) and PACS‐3 (marine sediment) have for the first time been characterised for δ⁶⁵Cu. Additionally, four reference materials (with published δ⁶⁵Cu values) have been characterised: BHVO‐1 (Hawaiian basalt), BIR‐1 (Icelandic basalt), W‐2a (diabase) and Seronorm? Trace Elements Serum L‐1 (human serum). The reference materials measured in this study possess complex and varied matrices with copper mass fractions ranging from 1.2 µg g^?1 to 497 µg g^?1 and δ⁶⁵Cu values ranging from ?0.20‰ to 0.52‰ with a mean expanded uncertainty of ± 0.07‰ (U, k = 2), covering much of the natural copper isotope variability observed in the environment.  相似文献   

基于回归模型的热带气旋条件下的海表降温参数化方案设计     

韦骏  刘欣  蒋国庆 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(1):1-10

Combining a linear regression and a temperature budget formula, a multivariate regression model is proposed to parameterize and estimate sea surface temperature(SST) cooling induced by tropical cyclones(TCs). Three major dynamic and thermodynamic processes governing the TC-induced SST cooling(SSTC), vertical mixing, upwelling and heat flux, are parameterized empirically using a combination of multiple atmospheric and oceanic variables:sea surface height(SSH), wind speed, wind curl, TC translation speed and surface net heat flux. The regression model fits reasonably well with 10-year statistical observations/reanalysis data obtained from 100 selected TCs in the northwestern Pacific during 2001–2010, with an averaged fitting error of 0.07 and a mean absolute error of 0.72°C between diagnostic and observed SST cooling. The results reveal that the vertical mixing is overall the pre dominant process producing ocean SST cooling, accounting for 55% of the total cooling. The upwelling accounts for 18% of the total cooling and its maximum occurs near the TC center, associated with TC-induced Ekman pumping. The surface heat flux accounts for 26% of the total cooling, and its contribution increases towards the tropics and the continental shelf. The ocean thermal structures, represented by the SSH in the regression model,plays an important role in modulating the SST cooling pattern. The concept of the regression model can be applicable in TC weather prediction models to improve SST parameterization schemes.  相似文献   

Stokes漂流对全球海表面温度模拟的影响     

肖林  史剑  蒋国荣  刘子龙  张成成 《海洋通报》2018,(1):55-87

Stokes漂流对海洋上混合层中的流场和温度场结构具有不可忽视的作用。本文基于WAVEWATCHⅢ海浪模式模拟的海浪要素计算得到Stokes漂流,将其引入SBPOM模式的动量方程中,从体积输运的角度研究Stokes漂流对全球海表面温度的影响。分析发现Stokes漂流与Stokes输运在全球呈现高纬度强于中低纬度的带状分布特征,且这种流动与输运对全球海表面温度具有降温作用,该降温作用的分布与全球Stokes输运强度相对应,高纬降温作用大于中低纬度,特别是南极绕极流海域平均降温明显大于其余海域,最大降温可达1.5℃,且全球月平均降温超过0.1℃。  相似文献   

基于核函数NPSSB模型的HY-2A卫星雷达高度计海况偏差研究     

张洁  田杰  王兆徽 《海洋预报》2020,37(1):1-10

利用机器学习的方法,对14个周期HY-2A卫星高度计数据:风速、有效波高和海面高度差值进行训练,探究海况偏差和风速、有效波高之间的关系,创建海况偏差核函数非参数模型(NPSSB),并与参数模型中具有代表性的BM3、BM4模型进行对比。研究表明:(1)核函数NPSSB模型能够很好的反映SSB与U、SWH之间的关系,SSB与U呈二次函数关系,SSB与SWH呈反比例函数关系;(2)核函数NPSSB模型对SSB的模拟能力与训练数据集相关,数据量越多,模拟能力越好;(3)核函数NPSSB模型与BM3、BM4模型都存在0^-0.03 m的差值,随着风速和有效波高的增加,差值的绝对值越大。  相似文献   

基于卫星遥感海温数据的南海SST预报误差订正     

张培军  周水华  梁昌霞 《热带海洋学报》2020,39(6):57-65

尝试利用卫星遥感高分辨率海表温度资料GHRSST (Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature) 与海表温度(sea surface temperature, SST)数值预报产品之间的误差, 建立一种南海SST模式预报订正方法。首先, 利用南海的Argo浮标上层海温数据对GHRSST 海温数据进行验证, 结果表明两者之间均方根误差约为0.3℃, 相关系数为0.98, GHRSST 海温数据可用于南海业务化数值预报SST的订正。预报订正后的SST与Argo浮标海温数据相比, 24h、48h和72h的均方根误差均由0.8℃左右下降到0.5℃以内。与GHRSST 海温数据相比, 南海北部海域(110°E—121°E, 13°N—23°N)订正后的24h、48h和72h的SST预报空间误差均显著减小, 在冷空气影响南海期间或中尺度涡存在的过程中, SST预报订正效果也较为显著。因此, 该方法可考虑在南海业务化SST数值预报系统中应用。  相似文献   

Quantitative estimation of submarine groundwater discharge using airborne thermal infrared data acquired at two different tidal heights     

Ki‐mook Kang  Duk‐jin Kim  Yunjee Kim  Eunhee Lee  Bong‐Gwan Kim  Seung Hee Kim  Kyoochul Ha  Dong‐Chan Koh  Yang‐Ki Cho  Guebuem Kim 《水文研究》2019,33(7):1089-1100

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) plays an important role in coastal biogeochemical processes and hydrological cycles, particularly off volcanic islands in oligotrophic oceans. However, the spatial and temporal variations of SGD are still poorly understood owing to difficulty in taking rapid SGD measurements over a large scale. In this study, we used four airborne thermal infrared surveys (twice each during high and low tides) to quantify the spatiotemporal variations of SGD over the entire coast of Jeju Island, Korea. On the basis of an analytical model, we found a linear positive correlation between the thermal anomaly and squares of the groundwater discharge velocity and a negative exponential correlation between the anomaly and water depth (including tide height and bathymetry). We then derived a new equation for quantitatively estimating the SGD flow rates from thermal anomalies acquired at two different tide heights. The proposed method was validated with the measured SGD flow rates using a current meter at Gongcheonpo Beach. We believe that the method can be effectively applied for rapid estimation of SGD over coastal areas, where fresh groundwater discharge is significant, using airborne thermal infrared surveys.  相似文献   

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)     

Roberta Padulano  Alfredo Reder  Guido Rianna 《水文研究》2019,33(14):2020-2036

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.  相似文献   

Guidelines on the use of structure-from-motion photogrammetry in geomorphic research     

Mike R. James  Jim H. Chandler  Anette Eltner  Clive Fraser  Pauline E. Miller  Jon P. Mills  Tom Noble  Stuart Robson  Stuart N. Lane 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(10):2081-2084

As a topographic modelling technique, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry combines the utility of digital photogrammetry with a flexibility and ease of use derived from multi-view computer vision methods. In conjunction with the rapidly increasing availability of imagery, particularly from unmanned aerial vehicles, SfM photogrammetry represents a powerful tool for geomorphological research. However, to fully realize this potential, its application must be carefully underpinned by photogrammetric considerations, surveys should be reported in sufficient detail to be repeatable (if practical) and results appropriately assessed to understand fully the potential errors involved. To deliver these goals, robust survey and reporting must be supported through (i) using appropriate survey design, (ii) applying suitable statistics to identify systematic error (bias) and to estimate precision within results, and (iii) propagating uncertainty estimates into the final data products. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

北斗卫星类型间偏差快速改正分析     

贾春  崔鹏  李慧  赵琳  李亮 《测绘通报》2020,(12):42-45

针对北斗卫星类型间偏差（ISTB）导致载波相位差分高精度定位（RTK）的整周模糊度无法固定问题，本文提出了改进ISTB快速改正方法，在观测量层面仅利用1组不同卫星类型的载波相位差分观测量即可实现ISTB估计与改正，实际应用中较传统方法更具普适性与简易性。该方法的测试结果表明，ISTB值由NH码调制不同引起，不同频点的ISTB值具有不一致性；此外，有无改正ISTB的北斗RTK性能对比反映了ISTB会严重降低整周模糊度固定与RTK定位性能。由此可知，本文方法能够保障现阶段北斗接收机更新换代过程中北斗RTK的高精度与高可靠性能。  相似文献